• GoldCore
    01/31/2015 - 05:00
    We are witnesses to an epic failure of planning, statecraft and social justice. Regardless of where your politics be, these elements are critical for a modern globally connected economy to function....

Market Sentiment

Tyler Durden's picture

Christine Lagarde Calls For World To Embrace "New Multilateralism" Order In 2015





As 2015 begins, policymakers around the world are faced with three fundamental choices: to strive for economic growth or accept stagnation; to work to improve stability or risk succumbing to fragility; and to cooperate or go it alone. The stakes could not be higher; 2015 promises to be a make-or-break year for the global community. The new networks of influence should be embraced and given space in the twenty-first century architecture of global governance. This is what I have called the “new multilateralism.”

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Chinese Stocks Crash Most Since Feb 2007, Futures Limit-Down After Regulatory Crackdown On Margin-Trading





UPDATE: *SHANGHAI COMPOSITE HEADS FOR BIGGEST LOSS SINCE FEBRUARY 2007, CSI 300 INDEX FUTURES FALL BY 10% LIMIT

Who could have seen this coming? Having tried and failed once to stem the speculative frenzy in Chinese stocks, regulators took more direct action tonight and suspended three of the biggest securities firms from adding margin-finance and securities lending accounts for three months following rule violations. As Bloomberg reports, Citic Securities, Haitong Securities, and Guotai Junan Securities shares plunged dragguing the entire Shanghai Composite down almost 7% and negative year-to-date.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Goldman's 2015 S&P 500 Trajectory In 1 Chart: Drop, Pop, & Slop





Not satisfied with merely "nailing the number", Goldman Sachs' David Kostin forecasts the S&P 500's trajectory through 2015. Recognizing, as we did, that Bullish Sentiment is as highs as it gets, Kostin expects short-term weakness during the next month (the drop), earnings growth thanks to lower oil prices into mid-year (the pop), but multiple compression after rate hikes into year-end (the slop)...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Contrarianism And The Danger Of Taking Hugh Hendry's "Blue Pill"





We will readily admit that one cannot know with certainty whether the bubble in risk assets will become bigger. However, it seems to us that avoiding a big drawdown may actually be more important than gunning for whatever gains remain. We don’t think it is a good idea to simply “take the blue pill” and rely on the idea that the effects of the money illusion will last a lot longer. It is possible, but it becomes less and less likely the higher asset prices go and the more money supply growth slows down. If no-one can say when, then the “blue pill” strategy has a major weakness. It means that things could just as easily go haywire next week as next year.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

25 Years After The "Top" In Japan, Have We Learned Anything?





The Japanese stock market reached its all-time-high on December 29th 1998, and as The Wall Street Journal reports, analysts were still looking forward to another strong year for shares in 1990, despite some signs of danger. Reading through the headline on that day suggests, 25 years later, investors and talking-heads have learned absolutely nothing...

 
EconMatters's picture

The Russia, Mexico & OPEC Failed Agreement on Production Cuts was Short Sighted





Regardless what happens with the U.S. Shale, the Cartel is always going to be worse off by not agreeing to production cuts.

 
Marc To Market's picture

Dollar Correction: How Far and How Long?





The US dollar's run stopped last week, but not before new highs were recorded against the euro, sterling, and the yen.   By the end of the week, the euro had risen 1.4%, sterling 0.9%, and the yen had risen as much as the two of them put together.  It was the biggest weekly gain for the yen in 16-months.  

 

There is one pressing question that international investors will be mulling this weekend:  How far and how long is the dollar's correction?   

 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

3 Things Worth Thinking About





While none of the following analysis suggests that a market crash is imminent, it does imply that we are very late in the current market and economic cycle. A market melt up into 2015 would certainly be exciting, but should be used to sell overly priced assets to what will probably be a dwindling supply of "greater fools."

 
Marc To Market's picture

King Dollar: Not Just the Driest Towel on the Rack





Deny it.  Engage in all kinds of mental gymnastics to dismiss it if you must,  but the fact is the US dollar is rising, and not just because of negative developments abroad, but positive economic developments in the US.  

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Italy Remains In Recession As Germany Avoids Triple-Dip By Smallest Possible Margin





The key event overnight was the release of European Q3 GDP data, which saw Germany averting a recession by the narrowest of margins when following a -0.2% drop in Q2 economic growth, Germany grew by the smallest amount possible in Q3, or 0.1%, in line with expectations, thus averting two consecutive quarters of decline, the technical definition of a recession. The French economy likewise posted a modest increase in Q3, although one wonders how aggressively the data had to be fudged for a country whose PMIs all indicate a -1% or greater contraction. Italy however was less creative with its use of "hookers and blow", and continued its recession with a 3rd negative print, contracting at -0.1% as expected, while Portugal also missed third quarter growth estimates.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Bizarre Love Triangle – Stocks, Gold And Oil





Gold and crude oil have been in a slow motion free fall of late, even as U.S. equities rally but ConvergEx's Nick Colas looks at the value of each asset class relative to the other two and assess their historical relationship.  For example, you currently need 1.72 ounces of gold at $1178 to “Buy” one S&P 500 index at 2032.  That is cheap to the 30-year average of a 1.86x ratio, putting fair value on U.S. stocks 8% higher. Separately, it currently takes 25.1 barrels of crude to buy the S&P 500, versus the 30-year average of 27.8, making stocks look cheap by 11%.  Closing out this analytical triangle: you need 14.5 barrels of oil to buy an ounce of gold, but the 30-year average is 16.6.  Bottom line using these long-term ranges: U.S. stocks look mildly cheap to oil and gold, but drops in those commodities would erase the difference just as easily as a further rally in stocks.  Gold looks cheap relative to oil and should be $170 higher, or oil should trade closer to $71.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Dollar Profit-Taking Keeps Futures Flat In Quiet Session





Following Friday's sticksave, where the usual 3:30 pm ramp brigade pushed futures just barely green into the close despite a miss in the payrolls report which the spin brigade did everything in its power to make it seem that the hiring a few hundred thousand young female waitresses was bullish for the economy, overnight we have seen a listless session, dominated by more USD-profit taking as increasingly more wonder if the relentless surge higher in the Greenback is massively overdone, especially considering that stocks are screaming "worldwide recession" excluding the US, if only for now, because as Goldman explained soaring USD means plunging Oil, means tumbling E&P capex, means lower GDP, means less growth, means lower corporate profits, and so on. That said, we expect the now trivial Virtu JPY momentum-ignition algos to activate shortly, pushing the USDJPY and its derivative, the S&P500, higher in the coming minutes, and certainly before the US market opens in under 3 hours.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Chart That Explains Why Fed's Bullard Wants To Restart The QE Flow





Remember when the Fed (and their Liesman-esque lackies) tried to convince the world that it was all about the 'stock' - and not the 'flow' - of Federal Reserve Assets that kept the world afloat on easy monetary policy (despite even Bullard admitting that was not the case after Goldman exposed the ugly truth). Having first explained to the world that it's all about the flow over 2 years ago, it appears that, as every equity asset manager knows deep down (but is loathed to admit for fear of losing AUM), of course "tapering is tightening" - as the following chart shows, equity markets are waking up abruptly to that reality. So no wonder Bullard is now calling for moar QE - he knows it's all there is to fill the gap between economic reality and market fiction.

 
Marc To Market's picture

Post-Taper Tantrum II: The Week Ahead





If there is a cabal running things, they are not doing a good job.  Maybe they are not really running things.  Here is what next week looks like if we did not know it was all pre-determined.  

 
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