Market Sentiment

Tyler Durden's picture

A Major Warning From Tom McClellan : "Can This Possibly End Well?"





"VIX futures ETF extremely popular now. Can this possibly end well?" - Tom McClellan

 
Tyler Durden's picture

What The Charts Say: No Bull - The Evidence





Today, looking at the technical evidence that, so far, suggests that there is zero evidence to suggest that we are in a bull market. In fact it appears there is risk building that this is a completely broken market in its final inning. Yes we’ve had a massive rally off of the February lows, but the technical evidence is mounting that this may still be a bear market rally. Why? Because key charts remain decisively bearish and any sizable pullback could literally kill any notion of a bull market...

 
Capitalist Exploits's picture

How To Profit From Pessimism In Europe





Hedge fund manager shares his investment idea to profit from the large scale pessimism in European stocks today.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Last Bubble Standing" Bursts - China Junk Bond Risk Soars





In January we pointed out "the last bubble standing," as China's crashing equity market had spurred massive inflows - directed by a "well-meaning" central-planning committee's propaganda - sparking a massive bubble in Chinese corporate bond markets (in an effort to enable desperately weak balance-sheet firms to roll/refi their debt and keep the zombies alive). That has now ended as China's junk bond risk has soared to 5-month highs with its worst selloff since 2014. As HFT warns, "we should avoid junk bonds."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"If No Agreement, Expect A Sharp Selloff" - All You Need To Know About Doha





Sunday’s producer meeting is all about nothing no matter what agreement might be forged. At best, the agreement will be, as Russia’s energy minister has stated, a gentlemen’s affair, with no binding commitments, no concrete next steps beyond having a review meeting, and no procedure for moving to production cuts.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"This Is Where The Good News Ends" - JPM Says All Margin Subcomponents Are Rolling Over





In the past 60 years, there has never been a recession starting before the peak in profit margins. However, once margins have peaked, the likelihood of a downturn increases materially... We believe that the rollover in profit margins will be a constraint for equities, as profits have tended to drive most economic variables, capex and employment in particular. It will also likely have negative implications for corporate activity, especially as M&A, buybacks and dividends are at cycle highs, and US financing conditions are deteriorating.

 
EconMatters's picture

Four Major Fallacies in the Oil Market (Video)





From Russia Oil Production, Inventory Builds, Saudi Arabia`s Strategy, and Market Sentiment regarding the rally off the bottom.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Goldman Admits It Was Wrong About The "Yellen Call": Offers Test To Check If It Is Finally Right





"In our “Top 10 market themes for 2016”, we argued that the ‘Bernanke put’ might gradually be replaced by the ‘Yellen call’. Recall, the ‘Bernanke put’ was the idea that meaningful declines in market sentiment would be met with aggressive monetary action, thus providing a buffer to downside risk. Our notion of the ‘Yellen call’ was the converse of this – that with labor markets approaching full employment and core PCE inflation rising towards target, meaningful rallies in market sentiment would likely be met with a more robust withdrawal of policy accommodation.... It hasn’t happened."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

2007 All Over Again: "We Are Outsourcing Our Monetary Policy"





The strange, ominous concept of "outsourced monetary policy" has returned — but this time we’ve put our monetary fate in even less-stable hands. Wjat Janet doesn't seem to comprehend is that putting oneself at the mercy of financial market sentiment seems a bit risky, given that Mr. Market is a well-known manic depressive.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

As Net-Long Positions Near Records, Is The Oil Rally Overdone?





Just as the rally was supercharged by short sellers abandoning their positions, the oil markets are at risk of snapping back in the other direction in the next few weeks as net-long positions are undone. If speculators start to get the sense that the market is changing directions, they will start to unwind their net-long positions. But, of course, these things tend to move quickly. Once the herd starts to see the market heading down, a stampede for the exits could ensue.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Stock Market Is A Monetary Policy Junkie - Quantifying The Fed's Unprecedented Impact On The S&P





The bulls will presumably argue that this Fed impact is now part of the accepted wisdom, and that P/Es should remain higher than history in order to reflect the Greenspan/Bernanke/Yellen Put. The bears will suggest that if ever there were a time for the scales to fall from investors’ eyes over the Wizard-of-Oz-like nature of the Fed, then this is it. We are inclined to the latter view. Betting on the Fed’s ability to generate continued market levitation seems like a dangerous game to us, but as Newton long ago opined, “I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.”

 
Tyler Durden's picture

This Is What Wall Street Thinks Of China's FX Trading Tax





Last night we reported that the PBoC is now considering a Tobin tax on FX transactions. The follows reports that a series of big name money managers - or, as China calls them “predators,” and “crocodiles” - have placed outsized bets against the yuan. Here's what analysts think of the PBoC's latest move to crush the "speculators."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Having Killed Their Equity Market, China Unleashes "Tobin Tax" For FX Market





In September last year, Chinese regulators stepped on the throat of a 'fair' market in equity futures trading and for all intent and purpose killed the Chinese equity market. Tonight - after 2 days of Yuan weakness - having warned everyon from Soros to Kyle Bass that "betting against the Yuan can't possibly work," The PBOC just unleashed plans for so-called "Tobin Tax" on FX transactions (which implicitly taxes each transaction, reducing liquidity, raising margins and reducing leverage).

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Central Bank Rally Fizzles: Equity Futures Lower As Attention Turns To "Hawkish Fed" Risk





While Asia was up on China's bad data, and Europe was higher again this morning to catch up for the Friday afternoon US surge, US equity futures may have finally topped off and are now looking at this week's critical data, namely the BOJ's decision tomorrow (where Kuroda is expected to do nothing), and the Fed's decision on Wednesday where a far more "hawkish announcement" than currently priced in by the market, as Goldman warned last night, is likely, in what would put an end to the momentum and "weak balance sheet" rally.

 
Syndicate content
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!