Market Sentiment

All Eyes On Washington: US Futures Rise On Hope Healthcare Vote Will Pass

Asian shares and S&P futures rose on optimism that today's rescheduled U.S. vote on health care will pass following Trump's Ultimatum to the Freedom Caucus. European stocks gave up some of Thursday’s gains, falling for the fourth time in five days, and moving further away from a 15-month high reached a week ago while the yen weakened for the first time in nine days.

These Are The Four Political Risks Keeping Goldman Up At Night

With political uncertainty near record highs (but equity market uncertainty near record lows), Goldman's Jan Hatzius analyzes the four biggest political risks receiving the most attention from market participants (and stand to create the most chaos if the priced for perfection market is disappointed).

Bill Blain On This Morning's European Euphoria

This morning the European markets are Risk-ON in frothy celebration because Right-Wing demagogue Gert Wilders “apparently” lost the election and won’t dominate the coalition process.

The Trump Range Chart

In today’s case, the enthusiasm of pro-growth fiscal initiatives are destined to collide with decades worth of ill-advised economic policies and political obstacles. As such, we created the Trump Range Chart to gauge the market’s faith in Donald Trump’s ability to effect real economic change.

Global Stocks Drop Ahead Of Fed Rate Decision; Dollar Rises As Sterling Tumbles

European stocks declined for first session in five ahead of Wednesday's Dutch elections and Fed rate hike announcement. Fed concerns also dragged down Asian shares and S&P futures, while the dollar rose. Crude oil has ended its six-day drop. The pound tumbled 0.8% to the lowest since mid-January in a delayed reaction after Theresa May won permission to trigger the country’s departure from the EU.

China FX Reserves "Unexpectedly" Rebound Above $3 Trillion, First Increase Since June

Overnight China reported that its FX reserves "unexpectedly" rose in February for the first time since June 2016, halting a seven-month decline, rebounding over the psychological $3 trillion level controls on capital outflows and a rally in the yuan. Total foreign reserve holdings increased by $6.9 billion to $3.005 trillion last month, exceeding the consensus estimate for a $30 billion decline to $2.969 trillion

The Second Dumbest Kind Of Money Is Pouring Into Stocks - "With A Vengeance"

One of the traditional signs of market tops is individual investors finally succumbing to the lure of apparently easy money and pouring their savings into the stock market. In the past this dumb money flowed into equity mutual funds in general. But today it’s favoring exchange traded funds (ETFs)...

All Eyes On Yellen After US Futures, Euro Stocks Rebound On Latest French Polls

World stocks pulled back from all time highs, and European bourses initially followed U.S. futures and Asian shares lower, however both European risk sentiment as well as E-Minis rebounded after an Odoxa poll showed Macron overtaking Le Pen in the 1st round for the first time, and that the addition of Juppe instead of Fillon may see a 2nd round run-off between Macron vs Juppe, leading to a slump in Bund futures to session lows, and a bounce in European stocks.

Retail Buying Panic: S&P ETF Saw Biggest Inflow In 27 Months Yesterday

If yesterday's exuberant spike in stocks (surging Dow above 21,000), on a day when economic growth expectations were crushed, was not enough to scare you about the ebulient animal spirits in the markets, then perhaps this will. The largest S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was inflows of $8.2bn - the biggest daily inflow since Dec 2014 (and second largest in 6 years).

BofA Throws In The Cautionary Towel: Raises S&P Price Target From 2,300 To 2,450

Overnight, Bank of America's Savita Subramanyan became the first sellside strategist in recent weeks to throw in the cautionary towel, and raised the bank's year-end S&P price target from 2,300 to 2,450 to "reflect an increasing likelihood that we are entering the typical later stages of a bull market, during which fundamentals typically take a back seat to sentiment and technicals."

EconMatters's picture

We could get all of Trump`s initiatives and still roll over in the business cycle, or Trump policies could actually quicken the tightening of the credit market, and send the economy into a recession faster than without policy changes. Shoot we could drop in the stock market just by valuations alone because financial markets are in a bubble.

BNP Risk Indicator Flashes "Love" Warning Signal For US Stocks

While the market itself has exhibited the exuberance we have all seen before (and never seem capable of learning from), BNP has quantified this love-panic relationship (and the news is not great for the bulls). When in 'love' mode, the average drop in stocks has been 12% in the next six months...