Market Sentiment

Tyler Durden's picture

The Next "Significant Risk For The S&P 500" - Kolanovic Reveals "The Macro Momentum Bubble"





"At this point we think that the negative feedback loop between market performance, volatility and the real economy (wealth effect) is becoming a significant risk for the S&P 500...  as some assets are near the top and others near the bottom of their historical ranges, we are obviously not experiencing an asset bubble of all risky assets, but rather a bubble in relative performance: we call it a Macro-Momentum bubble."

 
EconMatters's picture

Oil Markets Futures Curve Have Little Predictive Value of Future Price





Sort of like all those do it yourself Gold Mining shows hitting the reality television scene pretty much nailing the near term top in the gold market.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

JPM: "Use Any Bounces As Selling Opportunities"





"Our view is that the risk-reward for equities has worsened materially. Yes, stocks had a rough time most recently, and some of the tactical indicators, such as Bull-Bear at -16 which is at the bottom of its trading range, argue for a short-term respite. Clearly, equities are unlikely to keep falling in a straight line, with periodic rebounds likely. However, we believe that one should be using any bounces as selling opportunities."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

This Is What Gold Does In A Currency Crisis, China Edition





As China’s leaders figure out that pegging the yuan to the dollar while quintupling their debt in five years was a colossal mistake, they are, apparently, concluding that the only way out is a sudden, sharp currency devaluation...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Bull Market "Genius" Increasingly Exposed As Gross Incompetence





It was an ominous beginning to what is poised to be a most tumultuous year. Market participants are quickly coming to appreciate that China does in fact matter. Few understand why. Most – from billionaires to fund managers to retail investors – will “Do Nothing.” This has worked just fine in the past – repeatedly. Not understanding and not doing anything will be detriments going forward.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Options Traders See Yuan Collapse Continuing In "Dangerous Situation For Policy-Makers"





Surely, The PBOC will step in at some point and save the collapsing currency? Nope - not if options traders (and Kyle Bass) are to be believed. The odds of the yuan breaking beyond 7 to the greenback by the end of March more than doubled to 12% (from 5.8% at the start of December). Ironically, Bloomberg reports only 1 of 39 analyst predicts Yuan to trade beyond 7 by the end of 2016. The market's extremely strong conviction, and apparent PBOC loss of control is "a dangerous situation for policy-makers" according to one Asian economist.

 
EconMatters's picture

Technical Analysis of the Corn Market





For example, the world population continues to grow, good farming land with proper soil management is a finite resource, and the world is going to need more food in the future.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Global Stocks, Futures Dragged Lower By Commodities As Oil Slumps Back Under $37





With just two days left in 2015, the main driver of overnight global stocks and US equity futures remains the most familiar one of all of 2015 - crude oil, which, after its latest torrid bounce yesterday has resumed the familiar "yoyo" mode, and again stumbled dropping below $37 on yesterday's surprising API 2.9 million crude inventory build, as well several more long-term "forecasts" by OPEC members, with Kuwait now budgeting for $30 oil, while Venezuela's Maduro said the oil price fell to $28/bbl and is "headed downward." As a result U.S. futures declined and European stocks fell, extending their worst December drop since 2002 in thin volume on the last full trading day of the year.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Is This The Secret Behind Santa's Rally?





We exposed the ugly truth below the surface of Santa's rally yesterday, but today it just got even more fantastical...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Beneath The Market's "Shallow" Surface, An Ugly Picture Emerges





Do you still believe in market Christmas miracles?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Technically Speaking: It's Now Or Never For Santa





With the market now back to oversold conditions and redemptions complete, it is now or never for the traditional “Santa Rally.” Statistically speaking, the odds are high that the market will muster a rally over the next couple of weeks. While the short-term trends are indeed still bullishly-biased, the longer-term analysis (monthly) reveals a more dangerous picture emerging.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Futures Surge, Oil Rebounds As Fed Starts Historic Two-Day "Rate Hike" Meeting





The start of the Fed's most eagerly awaited two-day policy meeting in years has finally arrived with the market expecting Yellen to announce the first 25 bps rate hike in 9 years tomorrow with nearly 80% probability, and so far US equity futures are enjoying a last minute relief rally, while emerging market stocks rose for the first day in ten after the longest losing run since June. Europe's Stoxx 600 Index has also rebounded from a five-day losing streak, the worst in over four months.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

BIS Warns That "Uneasy Calm" In Markets May Be Shattered By Fed Hike Imperiling $3.3 Trillion In EM Debt





"Very much in evidence, once more, has been the perennial contrast between the hectic rhythm of markets and the slow motion of the deeper economic forces that really matter. Markets can remain calm for much longer than we think. Until they no longer can."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"It Is All Rather Scary" - Chinese Debt Snowball Gaining Momentum





Financial crises can happen quickly, like the bursting of the tech stock bubble in early 2000, or slowly, like the late-1980s junk bond bust. The shape of the crash depends mostly on the asset in question: Equities can plunge literally overnight, while bonds and bank loans can take a while to reach critical mass. China’s bursting bubble is of the second type. "If, as seems likely, the government has succeeded in getting funding to higher risk sectors by relaxing bond approvals," wrote Christopher Wood of brokerage CLSA in a recent note, "it is all rather scary, given the regulatory failures exposed by the A share boom-bust cycle."

 
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