Market Sentiment

EconMatters's picture

We could get all of Trump`s initiatives and still roll over in the business cycle, or Trump policies could actually quicken the tightening of the credit market, and send the economy into a recession faster than without policy changes. Shoot we could drop in the stock market just by valuations alone because financial markets are in a bubble.

BNP Risk Indicator Flashes "Love" Warning Signal For US Stocks

While the market itself has exhibited the exuberance we have all seen before (and never seem capable of learning from), BNP has quantified this love-panic relationship (and the news is not great for the bulls). When in 'love' mode, the average drop in stocks has been 12% in the next six months...

Re-evaluating Crude Oil Speculative Positioning

"I still hate crude oil and believe the next surprise will be lower rather than higher. But a little weekend thinking has forced me to re-evaluate the true extent of the supposed extreme speculative positioning..."

"No News Is Good News"

"The media may refer to the Trump-Abe bromance, but the fact of the matter is that this week’s strong start to markets isn’t driven by any particular positive catalyst. The two leaders delivered no surprises. Instead, this rally is largely based on the absence of new negative catalysts. The fact that Trump met another major world leader and didn’t create an international incident is now a notable event."

China Bonds, Stocks, Commodities Extend Gains As Yuan Tumbles To One-Month Lows After Renewed Liquidity Injection

As China got back to work after Golden Week, it appeared a renewed exuberance appeared in every orifice of liquidity provision (even as PBOC sucked up excess for 6 straight days). Stocks are up, bonds are up, and commodities are soaring (all as Yuan tumbles) and tonight authorities unleashed 100bn reverse-repo (for the first time in 7 days) as leverage seems nothing to worry about again yields drop and asset prices rise.

US Rig Count Rise Continues: What Will OPEC Do If The Market Doesn't Rebalance?

EIA confirmation of OPEC cut-compliance is trumping the dismal inventory data and surging US production for now. However, as US oil rig counts continue to rise (+8 to 591 - highest since Oct 2015) with US crude production charging ahead with it, the question many should be asking (given all-time record high net long speculative positioning in WTI/Brent) is "what will OPEC do if the market doesn't rebalance?"

GoldCore's picture

The Trump administration continues to sabre-rattle at global powers and threatens to disrupt the status-quo of international relations. Comments in just 24-hours by Donald Trump and his team have included attacking an Ivy League university, a nuclear power and two of the United States’ key trading partners.

Futures Fall On Rising Trump Uncertainty; Europe Stocks Rise As Euro-Area Inflation Surges

European bonds fell and stocks rose led by banks and retailers as surging inflation data prompted investors to switch into reflationary assets even as speculation about ECB tapering has returned. Asian stocks and US equity futures declined. The Yen and gold advanced after Trump’s firing of the U.S. acting attorney general added to concern over the unpredictability of decisions in the new administration.

Deutsche Warns Global Economy About To Roll Over, Says "Sell"

"Global macro surprises have only been higher 5% of the time, typically roll over from these elevated levels and have shown first signs of softening. We believe global macro momentum is likely to roll over from current elevated levels. Lower macro surprises would be consistent with a tactical pull-back for equities."

What Keeps Goldman Up At Night About 2017

Between China, credit markets, financial conditions, political uncertainty, the consequences of Brexit, the presidential elections, global trade, the risk of sharp reflation, and the impotence of central banking, here are the top things that keep Goldman Sachs up at night about 2017.