Market Share

"Qualified households will be unable to move from renting to owning as housing-cost burdens, slow wage growth and student debt make it harder to cobble together even a modest down payment," WSJ says. As homeownership becomes increasingly unrealistic, demand for rentals will only increase, driving further increases in the cost of rental housing. The question then becomes this: what happens when a family that can't afford a down payment can no longer afford to pay the rent?

Following OPEC’s decision not to cut production at its June 5, 2015 meeting in Vienna, oil prices should likely continue their descent that began in early May (Figure 1). Prices may fall into the $50+ per barrel range since there is no tangible reason for their rise from January’s $46 low.

New rules at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in conjunction with lower FHA premiums helped to drive down payments on single family homes to their lowest level since Q1 2012 in the first quarter.

When OPEC did not cut production last November, the oil market collapsed in shock and awe that the cartel would not just give in and allow non-OPEC members to walk away with market share. Today, in Vienna, "exactly as expected," OPEC once again confirmed production will remasin at 30 million barrels per day in the face of the global oil glut and prices for WTI and Brent have jumped $0.50 to $1.00 (we presume on machines and removal of a worst case boost to production).

It’s almost a foregone conclusion that OPEC won’t cut its production levels at its June 5 meeting in Vienna. Anyone needing strong evidence, if not proof, of this need only listen to Ali al-Naimi, the architect of the cartel’s effort to reclaim market share. In fact, some observers say OPEC not only won’t cut overall production levels from 30 million barrels a day to shore up prices, but may even increase them.

This month could be quite a spectacular one.......

The six-month clock is up. OPEC is convening this week in Vienna, as it does every six months, to discuss and decide on how the group will coordinate. So what should we expect from OPEC’s upcoming meeting on June 5? More of the same. Having made the decision to fight it out, there is almost no reason to back off now. US shale producers have hung on longer than many anticipated. OPEC has inflicted a lot of damage across the US shale patch, but it hasn’t yet struck the deathblow that it had wanted. OPEC’s strategy could still work, but will need more time. That points to a stay-the-course approach heading into the June meeting and beyond.

While it is likely oil prices could get a bit of a bump from a decline in the U.S. dollar, ultimately it will come down to the fundamentals longer term. It is quite clear that the speculative rise in oil prices due to the "fracking miracle" has come to its inglorious, but expected conclusion. What is interesting is that most have not figured out that the same thing will occur with the artificially driven surge in financial markets as well. It is quite apparent the some lessons are simply never learned.

"The supply of oil continues to build," warns the CEO of one super-tanker fleet, and "all of this oil needs to go somewhere," which is why the surge in super-tankers to a seven year high strong suggests all is not well in the world's hopeful 'demand' picture. With charter rates up a stunning 57% in the last few weeks with millions of barrels being stored on ships is another indication that the oil glut is yet to dissipate (and in fact, as Bloomberg reports, is getting worse - with almost half a billion barrels of oil in transit to buyers at the start of June, the most this year). With OPEC's meeting around the corner, a sudden realization of this rising glut may send prices plummeting once again.

So much for the Saudi and OPEC strategy of putting a dent in US Oil Production by not cutting production and hoping to gain market share for their oil by putting the Shale Industry out of business.

Overnight saw yet another dip at the open that was ripped by the close in Chinese markets as Year-to-Date gains for China's Shenzhen Composite now top 105%. With IPOs rising 500% with no down days, Charles Hugh-Smith unleashes his satirical sword to 'explain' just how idiotic this situation has become, and (as we detailed here) it will get worse...

American consumers may have pocketed most of their gas savings thus far, but there are two discretionary items where they aren’t holding back spending: bourbon and Tennessee whiskey.

On June 5, all eyes will be on OPEC as the group convenes in Vienna to discuss its course for the second half of 2015.

For the past three years, the biggest argument supporters of Obamacare would trot out every single time when faced with opposition to the mandatory tax, would be that despite widespread predictions of soaring prices, US medical care service costs had remained low and even, on occasion, declined.  All that changed moments ago when core US inflation finally spiked the most since 2013 driven by a 0.7% monthly surge in medical care service costs: the highest since 2007!

Here are the cliff notes of the Icahn letter:

1. Uncle Carl and his two analysts remain convinced they know how to run AAPL better than its CEO and his thousands of employees.
2. Uncle Carl and his two analysts have built up a massive stake in AAPL shares which however they can't get out of in this illiquid market without tipping the market they are selling - a tip which would promptly send the stock plunging - and as a result have come to the only buyer who is big enough to buy all of Icahn's shares without destabilizing the market: the company itself.