Market Timing

The Great Disconnect: Markets Vs. Economy

"While the Fed keeps promising with each passing year the economy will come roaring back to life, the reality has been that all the stimulus and financial support can’t put the broken financial transmission system back together again. Eventually, the current disconnect between the economy and the markets will merge. My bet is that such a convergence is not likely to be a pleasant one."

Some Thoughts On "Long-Term Investing"

Investing just for the sake of having your money in the stock market is a fools bet. As the old adage goes: “If you are sitting at a poker table and can’t figure out who the pigeon is…it is probably you.”

Weekend Reading - Are Stocks Really The Great "Wealth" Equalizer?

"Just recently, the New York Post a very interesting article entitled “Millennials should start taking stocks seriously.” While I am sure the author is well-intentioned, it is a very misguided article in its assumptions... the stock market is not, and never has been, the “solution” to building wealth. If you look around the world, there might be a very small handful that have actually built a fortune by investing alone. That is the exception, not the rule."

Earnings Beat "Fist Pumps" Very Muted This Quarter

"...shares of companies that have reported both better-than-expected profits and sales for the second quarter have barely budged this earnings season. It’s the least fist-bumping investors have done for great quarters in 17 years."

13 Truths About How Money Really Works

"It is easy to get sucked into the “hype” particularly at the latest stages of a rampant bull market advance. We all want to be able to under-save today for tomorrow’s needs by hoping the markets will make up the difference. This is the same bit of logic every major pension fund in America has utilized for the last 25-years and are now facing the underfunded consequences..."

Breaking Down The Bull Market Thesis

"Considering that forward estimates are generally overstated by 33% on average, the risk is high of disappointment... The risk for investors is “willful blindness” that builds when complacency reaches extremes. It is worth remembering that the bullish mantra we hear today is much the same as it was in both 1999 and 2007."

7 Myths Of Investing

"There are no sidelines. Those saying this seem to envision a seller of stocks moving her money to cash and awaiting a chance to return. But they always ignore that this seller sold to somebody, who presumably moved a precisely equal amount of cash off the sidelines."

A Simple Method Of Risk Management

In hindsight, it is easy to see that investors should have been out of the market in 2001 and 2008. However, remember just prior to those two major market peaks the Wall Street mantra was the same then, as it is today: “This time is different.”

Why The Fed Will Fail Once Again

"The Fed’s bungling should come as no surprise... The Federal Reserve has done almost nothing right for at least the past twenty years, if not longer."

Bitcoin Buyer Beware

Entrepreneurs have a new trick to raise money quickly, and it all takes place online, free from the constraints of banks and regulators. Since the beginning of 2017, 65 startups have raised $522 million using initial coin offerings - trading a digital coin (essentially an investment in their company) for a digital currency, like Bitcoin or Ether..."buyer beware, do your homework, don't be greedy."