Mars

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Frontrunning: May 8





  • Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage resign as Tories sweep to victory (Telegraph)
  • Bonds and stocks rebound, sterling soars after UK election (Reuters)
  • Cameron Set to Return With U.K. Majority as SNP Sweeps Scotland (BBG)
  • Tory win brings marked EU exit risk (Reuters)
  • Why did Labour lose this election? It never tried to win it (Telegraph)
  • Stock Buybacks Hit New Records (WSJ)
  • Hard Money Comes Easy as Wall Street Funds Home Flippers (BBG)
  • Justice Department to Investigate Baltimore Police (WSJ)
  • Saudi Arabia mulling land operations on Yemen border (Reuters)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

New Highs To Nowhere On Nothing





It’s official: all the markers of manias both past and present have now been surpassed.

 
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Stan Druckenmiller's "Horrific Sense" Of Deja Vu: "I Know It's Tempting To Invest, But This Will End Very Badly"





“I just have the same horrific sense I had" before, Druckenmiller said to an audience at the Lost Tree Club in North Palm Beach, Florida (according to a transcript obtained by Bloomberg). "Our monetary policy is so much more reckless and so much more aggressively pushing the people in this room and everybody else out the risk curve that we’re doubling down on the same policy that really put us there."

 
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Why Yellen & The Feds Are Bubble Blind - They Apparently Believe Wall Street's EPS Scam





Janet Yellen noted that everything was awesome and that stocks were now slightly "on the high side" of their historical range. It appears no one showed her the Russell 2000 which has a valuation multiple of just about 90x LTM earnings (as reported by the 2000 companies which comprise the index, and which were certified as accurate by 4,000 CEOs and CFOs on penalty of jail time). The mystery of how the Fed remains so stubbornly bubble blind - just like it did during the dotcom and housing bubbles - is thus revealed. The self-evident reason is that the purported geniuses who comprise our monetary politburo drink the Wall Street Cool-Aid about forward ex-items EPS. The Fed is driving a two-ton bubble machine, but has no clue that it has become a financial death trap.

 
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Lifestyles Of The Not So Austere & Socialist: Island Villa Edition





Greek FinMin Yanis Varoufakis has an island villa he would like to rent to you...

 
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Germany Has Had Enough With US Neocons: Berlin "Stunned" At US Desire For War In Ukraine





While Russia's envoy to NATO notes that statements by the deputy head of NATO testify to the fact that the leaders of the bloc want to intervene in Russia’s internal politics, and are "dreaming of Russian Maidan," Washington has a bigger problem... Germany. As Der Spiegel reports, while US President Obama 'supports' Chancellor Merkel's efforts at finding a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis, hawks in Washington seem determined to torpedo Berlin's approach. And NATO's top commander in Europe hasn't been helping either with sources in the Chancellery have referred to Breedlove's comments as "dangerous propaganda."

 
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Stocks Resume Rise To New Records As US Prepares For First Annual Deflation Since 2009





Following a quiet overnight session in which the main event appears to be a statement by Chinese premier Li for more active fiscal policy, which has pushed the metals complex higher, although technically every other asset class as well, with US equity futures set to open in fresh record high territory, even as 10Y yields around the world continue to decline, attention today will fall on the CPI print due out shortly, because if consensus is correct, January will be the first month this decade when US inflation posts a negative print, mostly due to the delayed effect of sliding commodity prices. As Deutsche recaps, the most important number today is the headline CPI where the headline YoY rate is predicted to be negative by the market (-0.1%) for the first time since 2009. Over this period the YoY rate stayed negative for 8 months. However before this we hadn't seen a full year decline since August 1955. In other words, a few months before what may be the first US rate hike for a new generation of traders, the US is set to print its first annual deflation since Lehman, transitory or not.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Want To Know Where The Next Bear Market Is? Look Around!





If you want to know where the next bear market is, look around at the people who are enjoying unimaginable wealth. Mr. Market has a habit of correcting things over time. My guess is that you won’t be paid $200K/year to drive trucks in North Dakota for much longer. The best thing about capitalism is that everything is temporary. The last time around, people had the stock, could have sold it, and didn’t. Nothing lasts forever.

 
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Meet The Extreme Super Rich: A List Of The 80 People Who Own As Much As The World’s Poorest 3.6 Billion





"Eighty people hold the same amount of wealth as the world’s 3.6 billion poorest people, according to an analysis just released from Oxfam. The report from the global anti-poverty organization finds that since 2009, the wealth of those 80 richest has doubled in nominal terms — while the wealth of the poorest 50 percent of the world’s population has fallen." There you have it. The reason the wealth of the richest has doubled since 2009, is because “it’s not a recession, it’s a robbery.” Central bank and government policy has done this, it is no accident.

 
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Frontrunning: January 21





  • Obama Targets Income Gap in Address That Shapes 2016 Election (BBG)
  • Republicans Reject Obama’s Main Economic Proposals (WSJ)
  • Senate’s Shelby Says White House Bank Tax Is Dead on Arrival (BBG)
  • Is Dollar Next? Investors Reassess After Swiss Shock: Currencies (BBG)
  • Bank of Japan Cuts Price Forecast, Maintains Record Stimulus (BBG)
  • Pound Weakens After BOE Policy Makers Drop Call to Raise Rates (BBG)
  • Putin not flinching on Ukraine despite economic crisis (Reuters)
  • Indonesia will not make public full preliminary AirAsia crash report (Reuters)
  • Party Hasn't Stopped for Russians at Davos Even With Ukraine Sanctions (BBG)
 
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Presenting The 2015 "Shadow Of Crisis Has Passed" State Of The Union - Live Webcast & Full Speech





UPDATE: Full SOTU Speech released - "THE SHADOW OF CRISIS HAS PASSED"

By now it is well known that The State of The Union tonight will be about President Obama's Robin-Hood Agenda. Furthermore, it is entirely clear that his proposals have no chance of becoming law. As WaPo's Marc Thiessen notes, Obama is not delusional, his move is completely and transparently political... And just as Eric Cantor suggests will merely serve to inflame the GOP. From taxes to cyber security and from community college to housing... in 50-65 minutes, all will be clear...

 
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Apocalypse When? A Visual Guide To Doomsday Possibilities





This is the real deal, and not any of this wimpy economic collapse stuff. We’re talking planets and stars exploding, near-extinction, and Bruce Willis coming to the rescue type of stuff.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Leisure vs Labor" The Difference Between "Non-Employed" Men & Women





We already know that "men are from Mars, and women from Venus". We have been shown that in America, for the poor and working class, "work is punished." And we also know how Americans overall spend their day - less work, more sleep and TV. Now, it is time to bring these cohorts together, to show, as The NY Times explains, how non-employed men and non-employed women (in the prime-age 25-54 segment) spend their day... (spoiler alert: shopping, TV, and housework are key... job search not so much)

 
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Using A Bitcoin Wallet To Take Inexpensive Positions On Goldman Sachs 2015 Recommended Global Macro Trades





First we discuss whether Goldman Is Giving Real Advice or Muppet Fodder, then we learn how to monetize our position on said Fodder... eh... Advice using just a bitcoin wallet and not Goldman itself.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Are You Better Off This Thanksgiving Than You Were Last Thanksgiving?





Are you in better shape financially than you were last Thanksgiving?  If so, you should consider yourself to be very fortunate because most Americans are not.  As you chow down on turkey, stuffing and cranberry sauce this Thursday, please remember that there are millions of Americans that simply cannot afford to eat such a meal.  According to a shocking new report that was just released by the National Center on Family Homelessness, the number of homeless children in the U.S. has reached a new all-time high of 2.5 million.  And right now one out of every seven Americans rely on food banks to put food on the table.  Yes, life is very good at the moment for Americans at the top end of the income spectrum.  The stock market has been soaring and sales of homes worth at last a million dollars are up 16 percent so far this year.  But most Americans live in a very different world.

 
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