This guy hasn't got the slightest idea (or wants it to appear that way), and more Silver Shenanigans from Europe...
Does The "Ring Of Fire" Guarantee At Least One Magnitude 8 Aftershock, And Ten Of Magnitude 7 Or Higher?Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/14/2011 14:39 -0500
For Japan, it's nowhere near over, at least if the Pasadena Jet Propulsion Laboratory (creator of such brainiac things as the Mars rovers) is correct. While Japan has experienced numerous magnitude 5 and 6 aftershocks (405 in total to be precise), the big ones are still to come: "Japan's largest quake on record, which hurled a 7-meter (23-foot) wave
landward after one plate slid beneath another off the coast of Sendai,
had an 8.9 magnitude. The aftershocks will likely include at least one
measuring 8 and 10 of magnitude 7, JPL geophysicist Andrea Donnellan
said. All are many times larger than the 6.3-level New Zealand quake in
February that leveled the Christchurch business district and killed 160." Should we get more 8+ earthquakes, the likelihood of further tsunamis unfortunately jumps exponentially. And while scientists have long been expecting "the Big One" to hit Los Angeles so far without success, unfortunately carrying over that logic to Japan is more than naive.
If one would have looked at the actual numbers versus what is consistently reported in the media, one could very well have grounded oneself profitably and firmly in the fastest growing and largest mobile market in the world. Then again, if Grandma had balls, she'd be Grandpa. Wouldn't she???
The CME Group Inc. increased margins its New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil and petroleum products futures, effective after the close of trading today. The margin for Nymex crude oil will rise to $6,750 per contract from $6,075, while heating oil margins increase to $6,413 from $5,063 and gasoline to $6,750 from $5,400, the exchange said in a notice late yesterday. The attempts to prevent an out of control melt up in the one product everyone is terrified of, crude, are back on the table. Just like last week, when the ICE started and the CME followed suit, look for today's CME action to be promptly immitated by the ICE on Brent.
As WTI Stockpiles And Spreads Hit Record, ConocoPhillips Obstinately Refuses To Reverse Seaway PipelineSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/16/2011 17:44 -0500
Today, WTI spreads continued their blow out, making the lives of all Goldman clients who expect the spread to collapse a living hell (with ever louder rumors of pending or already transpired energy fund blow ups). The spread between April-delivery WTI futures and Brent, the basis for European and West African crudes, widened $1.63 to $15.70 a barrel at 12:16 p.m. in New York. And since in addition to Brent, there are roughly 100 other grades, here is how WTI has been trading compared to some of the more illiquid varieties: Light Louisiana Sweet premium increased 30 cents to a record $20.10 while Heavy Louisiana Sweet premium widened 30 cents to $20. Mars Blend’s premium to WTI strengthened 40 cents to $14 a barrel, while Poseidon increased 30 cents to $14.30 over the benchmark. Southern Green Canyon’s premium widened 40 cents to $13. Thunder Horse’s premium to WTI strengthened 5 cents to $19.20. West Texas Sour’s discount narrowed 35 cents to $6.40. Syncrude’s premium widened 50 cents to $8.50 a barrel. The discount for Western Canada Select widened $1.25 a barrel to $21 a barrel. Yet despite all these divergence dynamics, it is the WTI that is of critical importance due to its prevailing liquidity and utilization in the US. Luckily for Ben, the WTI glut just hit a record, allowing the Fed to continue pretending that the real price of oil is not well over $100. Per Bloomberg: "Stockpiles at Cushing, the delivery point for futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, rose in the week ended Jan. 28 to 38.3 million barrels, according to the Energy Department. That was the highest level in records begun in 2004. Last week TransCanada Corp. started deliveries to the hub from its Keystone pipeline, which connects Alberta and Cushing." What is more interesting is recent speculation that ConocoPhillips may reverse its Seaway pipeline to relieve the Cushing excess. This would make economic sense for Conoco, yet for some odd reason the company refuses to proceed.
Per Declassified Testimony, Bernanke Blames Blogosphere For Itemizing Disastrous Consequences Of His Actions, Says Goldman Is A UtilitySubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/15/2011 09:14 -0500
Following loud complaints by Zero Hedge over the weekend about the retention of Bernanke's FCIC testimony from the public's eye, yesterday the commission caved and agreed to release Bernanke's November 17, 2009 89-page closed session confidential transcript, in which, among other things, Bernanke complains about the... blogosphere. Arguably, among the most amusing comments are the circumstances which bring Bernanke to lament the surge of alternative media. On page 68, the Chairsatan, in responding to a question of why nobody could predict the disastrous consequences of Vissarionovich Jr's actions, we see another face of Bernanke - that of the man who deflects his gross incompetence which almost destroyed civilization as we know it... to those who worry too much: "I think there were people -- there were people saying -- including people at the Fed but others as well -- saying, in the year before the crisis, that risk was being underpriced, that spreads were very narrow, that markets seemed ebullient, that liquidity was, in some sense, excessive. There were -- you know, the way I would put it is, I think there were people -- not necessarily the same people -- identifying various parts of the problems. You know, there were people who were concerned about derivatives, there were people that were concerned about subprime mortgages, there were people concerned about the overall credit environment, there were people who were concerned about off-balance-sheet vehicles. But I think notwithstanding the claims of one or two people out there who are now sort of living on the fact that they, quote, anticipated in the crisis, I would still say that the interaction of these things, the “perfect storm” aspect was so complicated and large, that I was certainly not aware, for what it’s worth -- and it could be just my deficiency -- but I was not aware of anybody who had any kind of comprehensive warning. There are people identified -- and the trouble is -- and particularly in this blogosphere we live in now -- at any given moment, there are people identifying 19 different problems, crises." So there you have it: the next time the entire financial system collapses, which should be within a few years at most, and unless Mars bails the Earth out, this will be the last collapse, it will be the blogosphere's fault again, for identifying too many problems again, and for supposedly 'shouting wolf' when it has been right all along.
When a market escapes gravity – you will know it.
Inflation is actually much higher than what the BLS claims it is; something that purchasers of college tuition, pharmaceuticals, or health insurance know all too well. To give the BLS some credit, they must try and estimate a single rate of inflation that applies to everyone equally. But that is a completely impossible task. An octogenarian living in Seattle on a meager pension and taking lots of prescription medications will have a totally different inflation experience than an 18 year old living in their parent's basement eating Ramen noodles. But even after spotting the BLS some slack, there are some enormous and glaring errors in their methods that render the official inflation measure hopelessly - and dangerously - inaccurate. In this article, I am going to reveal how US inflation numbers are badly understated, how this practice short-changes institutions and fixed-income individuals alike, and why this means fiscal and inflationary train-wrecks are the most probable outcome for the US -- and, by extension, the globe.
A brand new study released by the World Economic Forum (WEF) in collaboration with McKinsey (which is a must read if only for its plethora of charts which we are certain will be used and reused in thousands of posts and articles over the next year), finds that while global credit stock doubled from $57 trillion to $109 trillion in just 10 years (from 2000 to 2010), it will need to double again to an incredible $210 trillion by 2020 in order to provide the necessary credit-driven growth (in a recursive way, whereby credit feeds growth, and growth requires additional credit issuance) for world GDP to retain its current growth rate. And while the goal seeked conclusion is obviously nothing but propaganda for the banking syndicate meant to facilitate the need for endless credit issuance spin (after all how on earth can world GDP growth occur based on something productive like manufacturing when there is only $100 trillion of free cash chasing worthless and rapidly amortizing assets), the study did warn (timidly) that leaders must be wary of new credit "hotspots" of excess lending, as the world emerges from a financial
catastrophe blamed in large part "to the failure of the financial
system to detect and constrain" these areas of unsustainable debt. In other words: credit doubling blew up the world financial system, but if you promise to behave this time, go ahead and double the world debt again.
Following the stronger than expected net exports by China, we now get a better than expected trade deficit from the US, which comes at $38.7 billion, compared to expectations of $43.8 billion, from a prior upward revised -$44.6 billion. As the number is GDP positive, it has pushed the USD higher, which by courtesy of its newfound status as funding currency of risk assets, ends up offsetting any move in stocks higher, further elaborating the paradox that good economic news in the US is stock market neutral at best and negative at worst. Lastly, the question of where all these extra exports are going (more net exports out of the US, EU, China, Australia, and Japan) refuses to be answered by anyone... Perhaps Mars really is bailing out the earth.
The dominoes are starting to fall ...
A few weeks ago, Hinde Capital's Ben Davies delivered a terrific speech to the The Committee for Monetary Research & Education in which the asset manager presented his insight on not only the futility of linear forecasting, on the flawed assumptions of economists, and on the very errors in the current monetary system, but went on to suggest several "Variant Themes" which put him at odds with the consensus, chief among them being of course his views on the monetary system and gold (both discussed repeatedly before on Zero Hedge), but also on specific socio-political and economic catalysts when looking at the future. Among these are : 1) "Japanese stocks are the most unloved in the world. Small-cap stocks in Japan will skyrocket in years to come, but then they would, as I see hyperinflation there in the next five years", 2) "The Swiss Franc as a bastion of safety is a fallacy. They too are debasing their currency", 3) "Turkey: the Ottoman Empire will return. Great enduring demographics and entrepreneurial spirit", and 4) "Mongolia will surpass Japan in GDP on a PPP basis." Aside from his recommendations, which may well be right or wrong, the epistemological basis of Davies view is a must read for any participant in what is becoming an increasingly chaotic, full of noise and reflexive market, in order to get a grasp of what may truly be relevant for creating, and influencing, correct opinions.
JPMorgan Chase's CEO says the bank has stopped using the electronic mortgage tracking system used by major financial institutions. Lawyers have argued in court proceedings that the system is unable to accurately prove ownership of mortgages. And after the effective foreclosure moratorium is about to cripple the RMBS market, here comes the collapse in CMBS.
Then they got cute and produced either the actual note, a copy of the note or a forged note, or an assignment or a fabricated assignment from a party who at best had dubious rights to ownership of the loan to another party who had equally dubious rights, neither of whom parted with any cash to fund either the loan or the transfer of the obligation. . . .