Mean Reversion

Hedge Funds Have Never Been This Long Crude Oil

Despite record gluts in crude and gasoline amid resurgent US crude production, hedge funds boosted their net long position in WTI last week to a new record high.  For the first time ever, hedge funds hold more than a billion barrels of bets that crude oil prices will rally.

Key Events In The Coming Week: All Eyes On Trump's First Actions

The key economic releases this week are durable goods and GDP on Friday. On the political front, the focus will be is on the first actions of the Trump administration including moves on TPP and NAFTA. There are no scheduled Fed speeches this week.

Tom DeMark Says Put Your "Dow 20,000" Hats Away

"We’ve been confident the last three weeks we would not break 20,000... it’s so unanimous, it’s almost as if the election were being replayed within the market. Everyone’s confident the market’s going to break 20,000. If it does break, it may go quite a bit higher. But I don’t think it’s going to happen.”

Hugh Hendry: "We Are Running A Trumpian Portfolio"

  • In Europe we anticipate further duress in the political commitment to the European project as the success of Trump’s economic stimulus plan keeps US growth humming
  • The combination of Trumpian economics and Japanese 10-year nominal yields being trapped at zero by the Bank of Japan should mean the yen continues to weaken.
  • And finally, there are Chinese trades which generate positive carry should the status quo persist yet remain long volatility should pressure on the renminbi intensify

Will 2017 See Peak Fragility?

Markets remain more fragile than today’s volatility levels suggest according to BofAML's global equity derivatives group.

Inflation 101: Prep School For Preppers

In the blink of an election, the two worlds of Preppy and Prepper have collided. Rather than the possibilities being remote as doomsday scenarios suggest, potential outcomes are conspicuous in their size, abundance and mystery. What if, after 35 long years, the inflation genie really has been let out of its bottle? Well then, you’d best take cover. Which brings us back to those smartly dressed preppies, who will inevitably go all in on gold.

GMO's Grantham Warns Of "Dismal Consequences" For Investors In A World Where Bubbles Don't Burst

"The market is unlikely to go “bang” in the way those bubbles did. It is far more likely that the mean reversion will be slow and incomplete. The consequences are dismal for investors: we are likely to limp into the setting sun with very low returns. For bubble historians, though, it is heartbreaking for there will be no histrionics, no chance of being a real hero. Not this time."