Mean Reversion

Will 2017 See Peak Fragility?

Markets remain more fragile than today’s volatility levels suggest according to BofAML's global equity derivatives group.

Inflation 101: Prep School For Preppers

In the blink of an election, the two worlds of Preppy and Prepper have collided. Rather than the possibilities being remote as doomsday scenarios suggest, potential outcomes are conspicuous in their size, abundance and mystery. What if, after 35 long years, the inflation genie really has been let out of its bottle? Well then, you’d best take cover. Which brings us back to those smartly dressed preppies, who will inevitably go all in on gold.

GMO's Grantham Warns Of "Dismal Consequences" For Investors In A World Where Bubbles Don't Burst

"The market is unlikely to go “bang” in the way those bubbles did. It is far more likely that the mean reversion will be slow and incomplete. The consequences are dismal for investors: we are likely to limp into the setting sun with very low returns. For bubble historians, though, it is heartbreaking for there will be no histrionics, no chance of being a real hero. Not this time."

Goldman Sachs Still Expects Hillary To Win The Election, But...

For most of the year, Sec. Clinton has been seen as more likely to win the election than any recent candidate at the same point in the race, but the election is now seen to be roughly as uncertain as the average election since 1992... but the recent tightening has reopened a potential path to victory for Mr. Trump, albeit a narrow one.

Past Is Prologue: New Secular Bull Or A Repeat Of The 70s

Despite much hope that the current breakout of the markets is the beginning of a new secular “bull” market – the economic and fundamental variables suggest otherwise. Valuations and sentiment are at very elevated levels which are the opposite of what has been seen previously. Interest rates, inflation, wages and savings rates are all at historically low levels which are normally seen at the end of secular bull market periods, not the beginning of one.

How To Avoid Being A Retail Bag Holder

One chart shows exactly why weekly price performance matters. This is what happened to anyone who only bought after the market was up for the week.

JPM Explains How HFTs Caused Friday's Sterling Flash Crash

"The advent of non-bank liquidity providers such as HFTs has reduced bid ask spread and increased market efficiency in FX markets, but at the cost of lower market depth and withdrawal of liquidity provision in periods of stress."

BofA Stunned By Record VIX Roundtrip; Fears "Fragile Market"

In recent months, BofA notes that the speed of mean reversion in the VIX has been particularly striking by historical standards. Since the end of QE3, VIX spikes have had very little persistence, generating low cumulative volatility relative to the previous 25 years, underscoring BofA's thesis of a fragile market that features rapid jumps from states of calm to states of stress and back.

The QE Premium

"...to be blunt, given the aforementioned fundamental risks and the poor risk/return skew, history is clearly not in favor of those who remain long equities banking on the Fed to continue to levitate valuations and prices with limited tools and faulty narratives."

Deutsche Warns Of 10% Decline as Market Reaches "Mania" Level

Realized volatility in the US equity markets has been extremely low, and much discussed, but, as Deutsche Bank's David Bianco warns this is "the quiet before the storm." There are five catalysts for increased vol through Autumn but most worrying is the "High P/E, Low VIX" scenario is very risky having reached "mania" levels.