Medicare

Americans Flood Back Into The Labor Force Under Trump

It appears that the "animal spirits" unleashed by President Trump are not contained to the stock market: according to the BLS, one of the most notable observations to emerge from the February (and January) jobs reports is that the number of Americans no longer in the labor force plunged since December, declining by 736,000 in January and a further 176,000 in February.  The combined two-month addition of 912,000 was the biggest drop in the "not in labor force" series on record.

S&P Futures, Global Stocks Jump Ahead Of US Payrolls As Global Bond Rout Continues

European and Asian shares rise along with a jump in S&P futures which are pointing to a solidly green open on US payrolls day. The dollar, trading somewhat weaker against the euro was stronger against the yen, and was on track for its firth week of gains, while the rout in global Treasuries continued following a Mario Draghi conference that was interpreted as more hawkish than expected.

"What Is To Be Done?"

"The entirety of the world has been put on the knife edge of existence by the arrogance, stupidity, and hubris of the neoconservative pursuit of American world hegemony. The neoconservative ideology is perfect cover for the material interest of the military/security Deep State that is driving the world to destruction."

It's Trump's Party, Now

Tuesday’s speech established Trump as the man in charge. But how loyal to him and his program will be the “deep state,” which dominates this city that gave Trump only 4 percent of its votes and, paranoically, believes him to be an agent of Vladimir Putin? The Trump-Beltway wars have only just begun.

Wall Street Scrambles To Change The Trump Narrative Again

Until yesterday, the prevailing Wall Street consensus was that in the absence of specifics from President Trump on his economic and fiscal plans, the market would be disappointed, and proceed to slide. It did not, in fact quite the opposite.  As a result, the world's best paid strategist have once again revised the Trump-related narrative.

How We Got Here In One Sentence

In every annual budget debate since the 1980s, one side figures out that the way to get what it wants – which is higher spending – is to frame the request in a particular, ingenious way: We have to borrow and spend way more now if we want to borrow and spend way less later.

Evercore ISI: "Trump Budget Not Happening"

In a note by Evercore ISI's Terry Haines and Ernie Tedeschi, the analyst duo pours cold water on Trumps' budget proposal before it has been even formalized and confidently predicts that "Trump budget not happening" adding that the most likely outcome is that "Congress will modestly hike defense and nondefense spending."

America Has A Hole In Its Head

We need a new civil war like we need a hole in the head. But that’s just it: America has a hole in its head. It’s the place formerly known as The Center. It didn’t hold.

Frontrunning: February 27

  • Epic Oscars Mistake: Faye Dunaway, Warren Beatty Announce Wrong Best Picture Winner (Variety)
  • Oscar host Jimmy Kimmel turns Trump into recurrent punch line (Reuters)
  • After Mix-Up, Hollywood Searches for an Explanation (WSJ)
  • Trillions at Risk When Trump Speaks to Congress (BBG)
  • Bond Market Is Flashing Warning Signal on Trump Reflation Trade (WSJ)
  • Mexico Warns U.S. It'll Cut Off Nafta Talks If Tariffs Proposed (BBG)

Trump Seeks Sharp Increases In Military Spending, "Drastic Cuts" To State Department, EPA

As part of his proposed budget, President Trump will instruct federal agencies on Monday to assemble a spending plan for the coming fiscal year that includes sharp increases in Defense Department spending and "drastic cuts" to domestic agencies such as the State Department, the EPA and other non-defense programs, so that he can keep his promise to leave Social Security and Medicare alone.

Global Stocks Drop, Futures Flat; French Yields Slide As Political Jitters Subside

In a quiet night for markets, in which the top highlight was the Oscar's historic peddling of best picture "fake news" and where "millions" of Academy members seemingly voted illegally, European stocks were little changed after a selloff that pushed them to a two-week low, while the MSCI Asia index fells as Japan’s Topix dropped for third day. S&P futures were unchanged.

Mnuchin Manages Expectations On Tax Reform; Warns Trump "Not Touching" Entitlements

'Good cop' Mnuchin appeared to play expectations-manager this morning in an interview with FOX's Maria Bartiromo. After confirming the Trump administration is "not touching" entitlement programs, and having said this week that tax reform is expected by August, he appeared to walk back that hype by saying that President Trump "will be touching on tax reform" during his speech to Congress this week.