Medicare

The heart of the matter is “Big fish eat little fish.” There’s not enough tax money to continue swelling the fortunes of the super rich while making even a pretense of saving enough to pay the pensions and related social support that North American and European populations have been promised. Something must give.

In a way, the administration is correct in that with so many different voices each having their own opinion on how to cut the US deficit, it is next to impossible to reach a consensus. Yet the time bomb is ticking: in 2015 the projected budget deficit will be $418 billion (and likely more). This number will grow to $1.345 trillion by 2030 (both from the CBO, and thus fatally flawed). So here is your chance to give budget balancing a try: the New York Times has launched an entertaining interactive feature that allows readers to attempt to plug the upcoming $1.3 trillion hole on their own, using cuts to domestic programs and foreign aid, the military, health care, social security, existing and new taxes. Incidentally, of all proposals, the one that would have the biggest bang for the buck would be capping Medicare growth starting in 2013, which would almost halve the budget deficit in 2030, leading to a $562 billion recovery in government spending. The bulk of other "material" adjustment comes in the "New Taxes and Tax Reform" category, which is why we are certain that readers should enjoy their current tax bracket for as long as they can. It won't be around too long...

• BoE: Inflation is likely to fall back toward its 2% target over its two- year forecast period.
• China PBOC drains net CNY30B from money market this week.
• China's inflation hit a two-yr high in October, up 4.4% YoY.
• Global container shipping industry set to grow further in 2011: AP Moeller-Maersk.
• France along with Germany is pushing for investors to share sovereign bailout pain.
• Irish, Portuguese under increased pressure on dimming fortunes of euro zone.
• Japanese core machinery orders fell 10.3% in September, undershoots f'casts.

By now we all know the essentials of what happened on Election Day - Republicans gained 60+ seats in the House, at least six seats in the Senate, and 9-11 gubernatorial races (depending on recounts). We will leave it to others to analyze the "big picture" and what this election means for the long history of the American Body Politic. But, in the near term, several aspects of the overall results caught our attention for having near-term importance on Capitol Hill.

We don't have to either (1) sit here and take it; or (2) engage in revolution, as many are starting to suggest in writing. There is a THIRD way ...

In addition to calling for the abolishing of America's insolvent "welfare state" regime (and not to mention the Fed), Ron Paul floats the idea of allowing Americans to opt out of payroll tax in exchange for never receiving Social Security benefits. As the SSA will be pretty much insolvent in a few years, and not provide any benefit to anyone soon thereafter, this seems like a reasonable trade off.

Who really won this election? I did! There will be a major sell off next year, not just in stocks, but in all asset classes. The election results increase the certainty and the severity of this event. Volatility (VIX) will rise across the board. What The Election Means for Economic Policy. What the Election Means for the Markets.

If you are worried about the potential systemic risks caused by the developing mortgage fraudclosure story, you better view this important announcement immediately.

A few months ago we linked up to a Bloomberg interview with Boston professor Lawrence Kotlikoff who provided his justification for why the US is currently bankrupt (something about a few hundred trillion in off-balance sheet liabilities). Back then Koltikoff, aiming squarely at a specific NYT Op-Ed columnist, said "some
doctrinaire Keynesian economists would say any stimulus over the next
few years won’t affect our ability to deal with deficits in the long
run. This is wrong as a simple matter of arithmetic. The fiscal gap is
the government’s credit-card bill and each year’s 14 percent of GDP is
the interest on that bill. If it doesn’t pay this year’s interest, it
will be added to the balance. Demand-siders say forgoing this year’s 14
percent fiscal tightening, and spending even more, will pay for itself,
in present value, by expanding the economy and tax revenue. My reaction?
Get real, or go hang out with equally deluded supply-siders. Our
country is broke and can no longer afford no- pain, all-gain 'solutions'." And just because nothing has changed, the professor is back to the crime scene this time making an even stronger case of bashing America's oligarchy for not daring to set off on the much needed path of austerity, something even the stereotypically more "fear-prone" French are willing to do (and strike every day along the way). Kotlikoff says: "This massive Ponzi scheme is turning the American Dream
into the American Nightmare" adding that what the Fed is doing now is equivalent to "child abuse" and adding "If things continue as we adults have planned, our nation’s
debt, measured as a share of gross domestic product, will reach
Greek levels just when the grandkids start heading to work. At
that point, simply stabilizing the debt-to-GDP ratio will
require raising taxes by 50 percent, thereby lowering the
grandkids’ living standard from 74 to 61." And it gets much worse. Read on for Kotlikoff's view on why the Fed should be banned by the Geneva Convention.

The Federal Reserve is pulling out all the stops in attempting to invigorate the American economy. The stock market is surging. Everything is surging. The optimists are crowing that all is well. Deficits don’t matter. We can borrow our way to prosperity. Cutting taxes will not add $4 trillion to the National Debt if not paid for with spending cuts. All is well. So, the question remains. Was David Walker wrong? Are we actually on a perfectly sturdy solid platform? Or, are we on the Deepwater Horizon as it burns and crumbles into the sea? Let’s examine both storylines and decide which is true.

At some point, and I cannot tell you when, the US is going to find itself facing a situation very similar to that of Greece. Indeed, if Greece’s numbers are “Crisis Worthy” investors should consider that the US’s fiscal condition is in fact AS BAD IF NOT WORSE than Greece’s.

The US is expected to run a $1.7 trillion deficit in 2010. Assuming that the GDP numbers are accurate (they’re not, but that’s an article for another time), the US economy is in the ballpark of $14 trillion. This means we’re running a deficit equal to 12.3% of GDP. That’s RIGHT next to Greece.

Then of course, you’ve got our Debt-to-GDP ratio. If you ignore unfunded liabilities like Social Security and Medicare, the US already has a Debt-to-GDP ratio of 98.1%. That’s only slightly off of Greece’s Debt-to-GDP of 112%.

The middle class were not prepared for the assaults they have been fending off. They became soft and satisfied. They stopped training. They became distracted by their gadgets, delusions of home wealth, and fear of phantom terrorist enemies behind every bush. The propaganda machine of their true enemies has convinced the middle class that foreign enemies are massing. The enemy is within. The middle class will need to sacrifice and go to war against two enemies. Are they up to the task? I’m not sure. In my opinion the following platform is the only way to save this middle class country. Liberals and supposed Conservatives will be outraged. No one will be happy with my solutions. So be it.

There have been a lot of articles about the coming hyperinflation in America. Many of the commentators with whom I agree most of the time say hyperinflation is inevitable here. The problem is that it is an easy thing to say but more difficult to prove. If one does a careful analysis of the hows and whys of hyperinflation, it is highly unlikely to happen here.

The following is Part I to David DeGraw’s new book, “The Road Through 2012: Revolution or World War III.” This is the second installment to a new seven-part series that we will be posting throughout the next few weeks. You can read the introduction to the book here. To be notified via email of new postings from this series, subscribe here.