Meltdown

Canary, Meet Coal Mine: These Are The Tranches Where The CLO 2.0 Meltdown Begins

It was just three days ago when we brought you what we called “the next shoe to drop:” CLOs. Just hours after our warning, Moody's followed in S&P's footsteps and delivered their first downgrade of post-crisis US CLOs. In the crosshairs: Silvermine Capital or, more specifically, Silvermore CLO and Silver Spring CLO where exposure to junk debt and the increasingly toxic O&G space is worryingly high.

Donald Trump Is Right: Here Are 100 Reasons Why We Need To Audit The Federal Reserve

When a leading nominee for President gets something exactly right, we should applaud them for it.  In this case, Donald Trump’s call to audit the Federal Reserve is dead on correct.  Most Americans don’t realize this, but the Federal Reserve has far more power over the economy than anyone else does – including Barack Obama.  The funny thing is that the Federal Reserve is not even part of the federal government.  It is an independent private central bank that was designed by very powerful Wall Street interests a little over 100 years ago.  It is at the heart of the debt-based financial system which is eating away at America like cancer, and it has no direct accountability to the American people whatsoever.

Are Central Banks Setting Each Other Up?

There are times you try to connect the dots. There are others where those connections warrant adorning your trusted tin-foiled cap of choice; for you just can’t get there unless you do. This I believe is one of those times. And if correct? What at first might appear apocryphal, may in fact, be down right apocalyptic. And besides, what good is a tin-foil capped conspiracy theory anyhow if it doesn’t have the potential for doom, correct?  The implications for everything we now take for granted such as: money, enterprise, global commerce, and a whole lot more may be far closer to a “Minsky moment” than any of us dared to imagine.

Bank of America: "Corporate Balance Sheets Are The Most Unhealthy They Have Ever Been"

"...in a world where corporate balance sheets are arguably the most unhealthy they have ever been (all-time high leverage in HG and HY) where companies have relied on cheap debt to fund a growth through acquisition strategy, what happens if funding is either unavailable or too expensive to make a growth through acquisition strategy make sense? Same goes for buybacks and special dividends?"

Why The Keynesian Market Wreckers Are Now Coming For Your Ben Franklins

Larry Summers is a pretentious Keynesian fool, but we refer to him as the Great Thinker’s Vicar on Earth for a reason. To wit, every time the latest experiment in Keynesian intervention fails - as 84 months of ZIRP and massive QE clearly have - he can be counted on to trot out a new angle on why still another interventionist experiment or state sponsored financial fraud is just the ticket. Right now he is leading the charge for the greatest stroke of foolishness yet conceived.

21 New Numbers That Show That The Global Economy Is Absolutely Imploding

After a series of stunning declines through the month of January and the first half of February, global financial markets seem to have found a patch of relative stability at least for the moment. But that does not mean that the crisis is over. On the contrary, all of the hard economic numbers that are coming in from around the world tell us that the global economy is coming apart at the seams.

As "Plan A" Fails, This Is What The Fed's "Plan B" Would Look Like

As you might have noticed, the Fed made a policy mistake in December. We could delve deeply into the specifics, but quite frankly it all boils down to this: Yellen hiked right into a recession. With the pressure mounting, and with Janet Yellen having failed (miserably) to reassure the market with her testimony on Capitol Hill earlier this month, what’s in the cards for the Fed if the situation (both in financial markets and in the real economy) continues to deteriorate?

Quant Fund Carnage: Are Market-Neutral Funds Facing Another August 2007?

For equity market-neutral funds, there is a phrase more chilling than "worst since Lehman" and that is the quant meltdown in "August 2007" that put many funds out of business. While the mainstream media remains focused elsewhere, the last two weeks have seen equity market-neutral funds 'crash' (and today it is getting worse) as momentum factors diverge and memories of the 2007 bloodbath come back... as this forced unwind drives the current ramp.

Oil Price Volatility Soars Near Record Highs

Oil prices (and the broader financial markets) have suffered from acute bouts of volatility so far in 2016, with dramatic intraday swings the most worrying feature, and as OilPrice.com's Charles Kennedy warns, this shows no signs of letting up.

Kyle Bass Is Dead Wrong About Chinese Banks Says Chinese Bank

As the eyes of the financial world shift towards what may be some very serious problems in China's mammoth banking system, one analysts says fears about an imminent meltdown are overblown. Meanwhile, NPLs just hit their highest level since Q3 of 2006. 

Frontrunning: February 12

  • Yellen's dilemma: A downturn with no easy response (Reuters)
  • Clinton, Sanders clash over Obama as they vie for minority votes (Reuters)
  • Risk Grows of Markets Sparking Recession (WSJ)
  • Global Stock Rout Eases Amid Oil Advance as German Bonds Decline (BBG)
  • U.S. Benchmark Yield Will Be at Record Low in March at This Rate (BBG)
  • Oil Prices Rally on Hopes of Production Cuts (WSJ)

Either Banks Are Cheap... Or The Market's Gonna Crash

Simply put, either large cap Financials are cheap, or the entire U.S. equity market is still overpriced. Their precipitous decline year to date means markets fear they are both the transmission mechanism for a global slowdown/recession to come and a primary victim of that event.

Dot Com 2.0 – The Sequel Unfolds

Like a phoenix rising from the ashes of the post Dot-Com ruins people were told not only was it “different this time,” they were also instructed to observe even the phoenix bird itself had morphed into what is now commonly referred to as a “Unicorn.” And any comparisons to the prior meltdown in the land of Dot-Com were met with howls and scowls of, “You just don’t get it!” or worse. The real issue was, it had nothing to do with “getting it.” It’s all been about Silicon Valley itself acting and arguing as if the past were irrelevant. Now many are coming to a very stark realization that the Valley may in fact once again have repeated all the same mistakes.