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Oil Residue The Size Of Rhode Island Covers Gulf Of Mexico Seafloor In Macondo Well Disaster Aftermath





Ever since the April 2010 disaster on the BP-operated Macondo well in the Gulf of Mexico, there was one big outstanding question: where did the bulk of the oil gol? Now, thanks to a research team led by David Valentine, a microbial geochemist at the University of California, Santa Barbara, sampled more than 534 locations near the spill site, gathering more than 3,000 individual samples, we know the answer: the oil spill - some 10 million gallons of coagulated oil - left an oily "bathub ring" on the sea floor of the Gulf of Mexico, about 25 miles from the well, that's about the size of Rhode Island.

 
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On Traders' Minds This Morning





A summary of the key things on traders' minds this morning, as reported by Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank

 
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Frontrunning: October 28





  • CDC says returning Ebola medical workers should not be quarantined (Reuters)
  • Sweden’s central bank cuts rates to zero (FT)
  • Hacking Trail Leads to Russia, Experts Say (WSJ)
  • Discount-Hunting Shoppers Threaten Stores’ Holiday Cheer (BBG)
  • Apple CEO fires back as retailers block Pay (Reuters)
  • Repeat after us: all China data is fake - China Fake Invoice Evidence Mounts as HK Figures Diverge (BBG)
  • FX Traders’ Facebook Chats Said to Be Sought in EU Probe (BBG)
  • Euro Outflows at Record Pace as ECB Promotes Exodus (BBG)
  • Apple boosts R&D spending in new product hunt (FT)
 
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Frontrunning: October 27





  • White House questions new Ebola rules, nurse plans to sue (Reuters)
  • States stand firm on Ebola quarantines despite White House pressure (Reuters)
  • Rousseff Naming Brazil Finance Minister Key to Regain Trust (BBG)
  • Ukraine leader wins pro-West mandate but wary of Russia (Reuters)
  • Single Firm Holds More Than 50% of Copper in LME Warehouses (WSJ)
  • Treasury Liquidity Squeeze Seen as Dealer Shut Off Machine (BBG)
  • CVS follows Rite-Aid, shuts off Apple Pay (USAToday)
  • Oil Speculators Bet Wrong as Rebound Proves Fleeting (BBG)
  • Draghi Sets Stimulus Pace as ECB Reveals Covered-Bond Purchases (BBG)
  • German Ifo Business Confidence Drops for Sixth Month (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: October 24





  • Doctor with Ebola in New York hospital after return from Guinea (Reuters)
  • Ebola Puts Spotlight on Bellevue, Key NYC Trauma Center (WSJ)
  • Uber Driver Transported Ebola-Positive Doctor in New York (BBG)
  • GOP Gains in Key Senate Races as Gender Gap Narrows (WSJ)
  • ECB Tries for Third Time Lucky in European Stress Tests (BBG)
  • Security tight in Canada as police probe Parliament gunman's ties (Reuters)
  • Why Madrid's poor fear Goldman Sachs and Blackstone (Reuters)
  • Fed’s $4 Trillion Holdings Keep Boosting Growth Beyond End of QE (BBG)
 
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"Either You're The Butcher... Or The Cattle"





The common people are the cattle being led to slaughter. We are kept docile with incessant propaganda from the mainstream media; marketing messages to consume from Madison Avenue; filtered, adjusted, manipulated economic data fed to us by government agencies; an endless supply of iGadgets and other electronic distractions; government education designed to keep us ignorant; 24/7 reality TV on six hundred stations to keep us entertained; corporate toxic processed food to keep us obese and tame; and an endless supply of Wall Street supplied debt to keep us caged in our pens with no hope of escape. The butchers of the deep state have maintained control for decades, but we’re entering a new era.

 
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"Ebola Cruise" Returns To Texas After Suspected Healthcare Worker Cleared





In a tumultuous week for Ebola updates (which are only set to get worse with flu season about to unfold, and where every sneeze and fever will be interpreted as an early symptom of the deadly disease, likely choking hospitals and ERs around the nation), Friday brought us one of the more disturbing updates when it was revealed that an Ebola-handling healthcare worker had decided to break the "self-watch" protocol and had gone on a Caranival cruise in the Caribbean. Fast forward to this morning, when after what one assumes was a negative blood test, the Carnival Magic ship carrying the suspect, was cleared to return to port in Galveston, TX this morning. As AP reports, "The unidentified woman who is being monitored disembarked the Carnival Magic with her husband shortly after the ship returned to Galveston, Texas, about 6 a.m. EDT, said Vicky Rey, vice president of guest care for Carnival Cruise Lines. Rey said the couple drove themselves home, but offered no further details.

 
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Markets & Ebola: Confusion, Containment, & Complexity





The level of micro-management by the Fed appears to have reached a new shockingly high plateau. Recently prices have been driven more by liquidity, fear, greed, and Fed policy, than by valuation.  It is time that the Fed stops being a source of interference and confusion. There are also two less obvious or less discussed economic reasons why the Obama administration may be urgently focusing more on the Ebola crises.

 
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Ebola-Handling Healthcare Worker Currently On A Caribbean Cruise Ship





While one of the big Ebola updates overnight, in addition to Obama being open to appointing an Ebola czar - because clearly the CDC is unable to handle the epidemic, best to have one on top of it all -is that some schools in Ohio and Texas are closed today after students’ potential exposure to a nurse with Ebola furthered fears of the disease spreading, this is nothing compared to the just released revelation that a health care worker who may have handled a specimen from the Liberian man who died from Ebola in Dallas is on a cruise ship in the Caribbean.

 
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Frontrunning: October 17





  • Obama open to appointing Ebola 'czar', opposes travel ban (Reuters)
  • Schools Close as Nurse’s Ebola Infection Ignites Concern (BBG)
  • How the World's Top Health Body Allowed Ebola to Spiral Out of Control (BBG)
  • European Stocks Rise Amid Growing Pressure for Stimulus (BBG)
  • Putin Threatens EU Gas Squeeze Raising Stakes for Ukraine (BBG)
  • ECB to Start Asset Purchases Within Days, Says Central Banker Coeuré (WSJ)
  • Investors search for signs of end to stock market correction (Reuters)
 
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The 10 Biggest Energy Company Bankruptcies





Running a multi-billion dollar energy company isn’t easy. Just ask the executives in the corner suites of some of the energy companies that have gone bust over the years. Some, like Enron, were brought down because of insider malfeasance. A few, like ATP, blamed damaging government policies, while others went off the rails due to market forces that left the company and its shareholders flat-footed, deep in debt, and eventually broke. Here are the bankruptcies that will be etched into the tombstones of failed energy fortunes for time immemorial.

 
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Key Events In The Coming Week





Today US activity will be very light given the Columbus Day holiday. As DB summarizes, we have a relatively quiet day for data watchers today but the calendar will pick up tomorrow and beyond with a big focus on inflation numbers amongst other things. Indeed tomorrow will see the release of Germany’s ZEW survey alongside CPI prints from the UK, France and Spain. Wednesday’s data highlights will include the US retail sales for September, the Fed’s Beige Book, CPI readings from China and Germany, US PPI, and the NY Fed Empire State survey. Draghi will speak twice on Wednesday which could also be a source for headlines. On Thursday, we will get Industrial Production stats and the Philly Fed Survey from the US on top of the usual weekly jobless claims. European CPI will also be released on Wednesday. We have the first reading of October’s UofM Consumer Sentiment on Friday along with US building permits/housing starts. Yellen’s speech at the Boston Fed Conference on Friday (entitled “Inequality of Economic Opportunity”) will also be closely followed.

 
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A New Age Of IMF Bailouts – Great Britain In The 1970s





Hearing of IMF interventions generally conjures up images of developing nations (and the occasional Eurozone peripheral economy of late) facing some kind of financial difficulty. But it was actually Great Britain, the cradle of the industrialized world, which in 1976 became one of the first countries ever to be "bailed out" by the IMF in the modern sense of the term.

 
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Sears Halted, Plunges After Report Vendors Halts Shipments





Is this the beginning of the end for Eddie Lampert's exercise in financial engineering that is Sears Holdings Corp? Bloomberg reports that three of the biggest insurance firms for Sears' suppliers are seeking to reduce coverage... which has led to:

*SEARS 'MEDIUM-SIZED SUPPLIER' VENDOR SAID TO HALT SHIPMENTS AS INSURERS REDUCE COVERAGE

The stock has been halted twice on volatility limits and is down 10% for now. SRAC 5Y CDS are offered at ~39% upfront, implying around a 87% probability of default.

 
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Guest Post: Turkey, The Kurds And Iraq - The Prize & Peril Of Kirkuk





The modern Turkish government is looking at Iraq and Syria in a way similar to how Damat Ferid did almost a century ago when he sought in Paris to maintain Turkish sovereignty over the region. From Ankara's point of view, the extension of a Turkish sphere of influence into neighboring Muslim lands is the antidote to weakening Iraqi and Syrian states. However, the Turkish vision of the region simply does not fit the current reality and is earning Ankara more rebuke than respect from its neighbors and the West. The Kurds, in particular, will continue to form the Achilles' heel of Turkish policymaking. This is the crowded battleground that Turkey knows well. A long and elaborate game of "keep away" will be played to prevent the Kurds from consolidating control over oil-rich territory in the Kurdish-Arab borderland, while the competition between Turkey and Iran will emerge into full view.

 
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