Sad but true. Current owner of the Twinkies and Ho-Ho brands, Mexico's Grupo Bimbo, had planned to take advantage of an exuberant public stock market by bringing a secondary stock offering to reduce its leverage. Everything was good-to-go on Friday, but with the market now down a stunning 1.5% from pre-BABA IPO levels, they have pulled the offering:
*MEXICO’S BIMBO SAID TO POSTPONE FOLLOW-ON SHARE OFFER: REUTERS
No comment as yet on the reason, though we assume "market conditions" will be cited as the fickleness of capital markets' animal spirits is once again exposed for all to see. Perhaps Grupo Bimbo should rename themselves Grupo Bimbaba?
With the snoozer of an FOMC meeting in the rearview mirror, as well as Scotland's predetermined independence referndum, last week's key events: the BABA IPO and the iPhone 6 release, are now history, which means the near-term catalysts are gone and the coming week will be far more relaxed, if hardly boring. Here is what to expect.
Since weather has become the most crucial factor in forecasting economic growth, we thought it crucial to the future of central bank policy to note that Summer 2014 was officially the hottest one ever, according to NOAA. This of course means there is "pent-up" cold weather, which may explain the collapse in global growth expectations. However, this chatter about heat may surprise Americans (aside from those that live in the Western States) as the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. were running cooler than normal (thus concerns about growth). According to NOAA’s records, this is the 38th consecutive August and 354th consecutive month with a global average temperature above the 20th century average.
What has happened to America?
"During the quarter, the company acquired 5.3 million shares of FedEx common stock. As of August 31, 2014, no shares remained under the existing share repurchase authorizations. Share repurchases benefited earnings in the quarter by $0.15 per diluted share."
Venezuelan women are revolting complaining. While the citizens of the socialist utopia can withstand shortages of food, toilet paper, and now even news paper, in a nation thought to have one of the world's highest plastic surgery rates, AP reports beauty-obsessed Venezuelans face a scarcity of brand-name breast implants, and women are so desperate that they and their doctors are turning to devices that are the wrong size or made in China, with less rigorous quality standards. No one is giving the frustrated women much sympathy, especially not the government where late President Hugo Chavez called the country's plastic surgery fixation "monstrous," and railed against the practice of giving implants to girls on their 15th birthdays. However, many have taken to Twitter under the hashtag "Without Boobs, There's No Paradise."
US Industrial Production and the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing survey are the two main releases for the US. In Europe, the euro area trade balance will be the notable print. Beyond today, US PPI, German ZEW and UK CPI are the main economic reports tomorrow. Wednesday will see the release of BOE’s meeting minutes, the US CPI, and the Euro area inflation report. On Thursday, President Obama will host Poroshenko and on the data front we have Philly Fed, initial claims, and building permits to watch out for, but the biggest market moving event will surely be the Scottish independence referendum. German PPI will be the key release on what will otherwise be a relatively quiet Friday.
Forget the Siren calls of the impending end of days and the imminent collapse of civilization. Here is a non-polemical non-bombastic overview of three key events in the week ahead: FOMC meeting, TLTRO launch in Europe and the Scottish referendum.
Yesterday, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan was the keynote speaker at KPMG’s 2014 Insurance Industry Conference Tuesday, where he answered questions such as 1) where the economy is going, 2) why, and 3) when (if ever) is it likely to improve. The answers, as reported by Property Casualty 360, are: 1) nowhere fast, 2) because nobody is willing to invest, and 3) eventually, but nobody can tell when. He listed 9 specific reasons why the "economy stinks", although surprisingly, nowhere did he mention the fact that the current and future economic disaster is all a direct result of his ruinous reign at helm of the Fed where as a result of his "great moderation" and the Fed's catastrophic monetary policies conceived mostly under Greenspan himself, the economy is now perpetually stuck in a boom-bust cycle, and where every time a bubble bursts another has to replace it or else the entire western way of life will be gone in a heartbeat.
- British PM begs Scots: Don't rip apart our UK 'family of nations' (Reuters)
- Obama has become Bush: Obama’s Task: Rally U.S. Public, Allies in Terror Fight (BBG)
- Alibaba's record IPO covered after first few roadshow meetings (Reuters)
- Ferrari chairman Luca Di Montezemolo to quit after 23 years (BBC)
- Combat Reversals Pressure Assad (WSJ)
- Top LBO Fund Investors Pile on Leverage to Boost Returns (BBG)
- BOJ's Iwata upbeat on economy, unfazed by post-tax hike slump (Reuters)
- Carney Can’t Escape Housing as Debt Colors BOE Policy (BBG)
- Detroit Clears Crucial Hurdle on Bankruptcy (NYT)
One of the more amusing comments overnight came from Bank of America, which now predicts that China's export growth will be boosted by iPhone 6 by 1% per month through year-end. Whether or not this is accurate is irrelevant, but we are happy that unlike before, BofA has finally figured out that iPhone sales are positive for Chinese GDP, not US, which was the case with the release of the iPhone 4 and 5, when clueless strategists all came out boosting their US (!) GDP forecasts on the iPhone release. We note this because the long-awaited release of Apple's new iPhone will certainly grab some attention tomorrow. According to a BofA poll last week and of the 124 respondents surveyed, 66% of those have noted that they are going to buy the new iPhone and of those planning to buy 75% of those will be replacing their iPhone 5/5s.
- Euro left reeling after ECB's liquidity splurge (Reuters)
- Coalition Emerges to Battle Islamic State Militants (WSJ)
- Ukraine Gas Chief Takes on Gazprom in Race With Winter (BBG)
- Nato leaders fail to agree spending targets (FT)
- JPMorgan Had Exodus of Tech Talent Before Hacker Breach (BBG)
- Mercedes-Benz Sales Rise Despite Weak German Demand (WSJ)
- Secret Network Connects Harvard Money to Payday Loans (BBG)
- ICE looks to crack financial data market (FT)
Back in 2009 we first warned that the market is now just a "market" where between the direct manipulation of all asset-prices by the firehose Fed and its peers, and the explicit rigging of stock prices by the HFTs, there is no such thing as a market left. Back then, we were called tinfoil something or another. Now that everyone admits the Fed's only purpose is to push asset prices higher, and the topic of HFT's rigging of markets is now a blockbuster book, those accusations have grown silent. In fact, the only thing that remains are the very loud screams as increasingly more often, some unknown or well-known trader and/or investor, with a several year delay, stumbles on our conclusion and realizes that the game (i.e., market) is so rigged, manipulated and broken, that the only winning move was not to play in the first place. Today's case in point Andrew Cunagin, the founder of Rinehart Capital Partners LLC, a hedge fund backed by hedge-fund veteran Lee Ainslie and specialized in emerging-markets stock-picking, and who as the Wall Street Journal reported earlier, is closing. The closure is not news: what Cunagin blames the closure on, however, is.
U.S. District Judge Carl Barbier in New Orleans ruled today that BP was "grossly negligent" in the 2010 Deepwater Horizon rig explosion and may face up to $18 billion in civil penalties, according to The WSJ. In addition, Transocean and Halliburton were found 'negligent' - a lessor offense - (fines up to $1,100 per barrel for 'negligence', $4,300 for 'gross negligence'). This result comes 2 years after BP agreed to accept criminal responsibility for the disaster and to pay $4.5 billion in fines and restitution. BP quickly issued a statement that it will appeal the decision and believes the findings "are not supported by evidence at trial."
- Confusion as Ukraine and Russia announce progress towards peace (Reuters)... but not for stock buying algos, they know everything
- Obama Expresses Skepticism About Possible Ukraine Cease-Fire (WSJ)
- Fighters Unwind in Russia Where Beer Doesn’t Spell Death (BBG)
- Despite dangers, U.S. journalist Sotloff was determined to record Arab Spring's human toll (Reuters)
- New Beheading Video Spurs Calls for Global Response (BBG)
- Christie’s Spending on Outside Lawyers Passes $50 Million (BBG)
- IEX to Apply for Exchange Status (WSJ)
- UK says not ruling out airstrikes against Islamic State, says hostage video genuine (Reuters)