Mexico

Carrier & The Broken Window Narrative

The “Carrier” deal, and future deals like it, only succeed in temporarily keeping the jobs of yesterday with a cost to taxpayers today.

Frontrunning: December 7

  • Futures rise for third day in a row (Reuters); Banks Lead Stock Rally as Bonds Gain With Hopes Pinned on Draghi (BBG)
  • Monte dei Paschi bolsters European stocks, ECB looms (Reuters)
  • Finding Risk in All the Wrong Places as Trump Era Begins (BBG)
  • Goldman Tells Stock Pickers to Rejoice as Correlations Decline (BBG)
  • Trump’s ‘Wall’ at Mexico Border Vanishing as GOP Lawmakers Bolt (BBG)

Trump’s Shot Across China’s Bow

"Trump’s purely symbolic shot across the bow, as an answer to all of China’s more-or-less purely symbolic boundary pushing in the Western Pacific, should, in fact, actually help the Chinese stay out of trouble, by putting them on notice that actions do have consequences, that there actually are costs to trying to repeatedly pin a clown nose on the sheriff."

Trade Deficit Grows More Than Expected As Stronger Dollar Pressures Exports

The U.S. monthly international trade deficit increased in October 2016 according to the U.S. Census Bureau, rising from $36.2 billion in September (revised lower from $36.4 billion) to $42.6 billion in October, higher than the $41.8BN consensus estimate, as exports decreased and imports increased which was to be expected following the recent surge in the US Dollar.

Frontrunning: December 6

  • For Europe’s Unity, 2017 Will Be a Year of Reckoning (WSJ)
  • Oil dips as OPEC, Russian output rises ahead of production cut (Reuters)
  • The Pessimist's Guide to 2017 (BBG)
  • Donald Trump’s Message Sparks Anger in China (WSJ)
  • Brazil’s Reform Plan in Disarray After Senate Chief Removed (BBG)

Global Stocks Rise As Oil Dips; US Stock Futures And Dollar Flat

European and Asian markets rose, while U.S. index futures were little changed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average pushing for yet another record, as traders digested the Italian referendum news, await the ECB's Thursday announcement and reflect in a notably quieter overnight session.  Oil slipped from a 16-month high after 4 straight days of gains.

Carrier & The Slippery Slope

Time will tell whether this Carrier deal was just a symbolic line in the sand, or whether it is a sign of future government interventionist policies which will ultimately backfire. In the long run, the less government, the better.

Frontrunning: December 5

  • Italy Sinks Into Political Limbo as Defeat Sweeps Renzi Away (BBG)
  • Investors Shrug Off Italy Referendum Result (WSJ); Markets Rise After Italy Turns Down Referendum (BBG)
  • Italy’s ‘No’ Poses Trouble for Eurozone (WSJ)
  • Oil tops $55 for first time in 16 months as OPEC deal fuels buying (Reuters)
  • Merkel regrets Renzi resignation but will work with new Italy government (Reuters)

Fake News And War Party Lies

American policitians claim the “propaganda and disinformation threat” against America is real, and we must “counter and combat it.” Yet it is often our own allies, like the Brits, and our own leaders who mislead and lie us into unnecessary wars.

Sarah Palin Slams Trump Carrier Deal As "Crony Capitalism", "Corporate Welfare"

"Politicians picking and choosing recipients of corporate welfare is railed against by fiscal conservatives, for it’s a hallmark of corruption. And socialism. The Obama Administration dealt in it in spades.... When government steps in arbitrarily with individual subsidies, favoring one business over others, it sets inconsistent, unfair, illogical precedent."