• Tim Knight from...
    02/06/2016 - 00:25
    What we must remember is this: we are in a bear market, and the risk of a countertrend rally is present, but confined. The opportunity on the downside movement dwarfs the risk of a push higher, as...
  • Phoenix Capital...
    02/06/2016 - 10:15
    2008 was caused by derivatives based on consumer-focused assets (houses). The next crisis will be driven by derivatives on government-focused assets (bonds).

Mexico

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Will Non-OPEC Oil Production Collapse In 2016?





The recent surge in world production that was brought about by high prices was a USA and Canadian phenomenon only.

 
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Shale Shock: Another Leg Lower In Oil Coming After Many Producers Found To Have Far Lower Breakevens





According to a report by the Bloomberg Intelligence analysts William Foiles and Andrew Cosgrove, Saudi Arabia may have its work cut out for it as it will be far harder to kill many U.S. E&Ps than analysts originally thought. The reason: a break-even model for the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford shows that oil production across five plays in Texas and New Mexico may remain profitable even when WTI prices fall below $30 a barrel, according to a 55-variable Bloomberg Intelligence model for horizontal oil wells.

 
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Manufacturing Recession Spills Over Into Services After Dismal PMI, ISM Data





In the words of Markit's chief economist, "the US upturn has lost substantial momentum over the past two months," as the golden child of any current bullish narrative - the Services economy - drops to its weakest since October 2013 (PMI 53.2, missing expectations). Plunging backlogs suggest hiring will slow notably and then ISM Services hit at a 23-month low, plunging back towards manufacturing's weakness, with employmenmt at its weakest sicne April 2014 and unadjusted new orders at their weakest since Jan 2014.

 
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Pentagon Will Spend $3.4 Billion Next Year To Keep You Safe From "Aggressive" Russians





It's a dangerous world out there and these are exceptionally uncertain times. Fortunately, US Defense Secretary Ash Carter is a dangerous man and if you give him $582 million of your tax dollars, he'll keep you safe from sneaky Russians, scheming Chinese, plotting Iranians, unpredictable North Koreans, and bloodthirsty terrorists. 

 
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Groundhog Day Trading: Stocks Slide As Oil Plunge Returns; BP Suffers Biggest Loss On Record





It certainly does feel like groundhog day today because while last week's near record oil surge is long forgotten, and one can debate the impact the result of last night's Iowa primary which saw Trump disappoint to an ascendant Ted Cruz while Hillary and Bernie were practically tied, one thing is certain: today's continued decline in crude, which has seen Brent and WTI both tumble by over 3% has once again pushed global stocks and US equity futures lower, offsetting the euphoria from last night's earnings beat by Google which made Alphabet the largest company in the world by market cap.

 
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Ron Insana Kindly Requests The Fed Lower Rates To Negative To Help His Virtual Portfolio





"The Fed should, given recent events, simply admit its error of pre-emptively raising rates before both its employment and inflation mandates had been met, and reduce the Federal Funds rate back to zero, pending further improvements in the economy. Certainly, the Federal Reserve risks its credibility by admitting an error, but that is a far better outcome than risking recession by not doing so"

 
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Crude Sinks To Day Lows After Goldman Explains Why No Oil Production Cuts Are Coming





"Despite the sharp bounce in oil prices that these headlines generated, we do not expect such a cut will occur unless global growth weakens sharply from current levels, which is not our economists' forecast. This view is anchored by our belief that such a cut would be self-defeating given the short-cycle of shale production and the only nascent non-OPEC supply response to OPEC's November 2014 decision to maximize long-term revenues."

 
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The Last (Policy-Induced) Gasp Of Speculative Excess





Markets these days have every reason to question the efficacy of global monetary management. Last week saw dovish crisis management vociferation from the ECB’s Draghi. Now the BOJ adopts a crisis management stance. The week also had talk of some deal to reduce global crude supply. Meanwhile, the PBOC injected a weekly record $105 billion of new liquidity. Nonetheless, the Shanghai Composite sank 6.1% to a 13-month low. There was desperation in the air – along with a heck of a short squeeze and general market mayhem.

 
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2 Of The World's 20 Most Violent Cities Are In America





While Caracas - the capital of socialist utopia Venezuela where gun control is extreme - remains the number one most violent city in the world, there are two new entrants from the USA into the World's Top 20 least desirable places to walk the streets - St. Louis (15th most violent city in the world) and Baltimore (19th). America, land of the free to indiscrimanently kill other people?

 
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The Chinese Economy Is Sinking, Not Transitioning





China’s stock market is a small, relative matter; the more troubling imbalances lie and remain elsewhere. This change in production profitability is concerning on three fronts: China’s industry persists at only getting worse even though it has already reverted to a state not seen in a decade or more; consumer appearances may seem generally optimistic despite all that but only because industrial activity has yet to fully make adjustments through resources and labor; and financial trends are likely already at the stage of self-reinforcement within and without.

 
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The Islamization Of America In 2015, Part 2





More than half (51%) of Muslims in America believe they should "have the choice of being governed according to Sharia." Only 39% of those polled said that Muslims in the U.S. should be subject to American courts. Nearly a quarter believed that, "It is legitimate to use violence to punish those who give offense to Islam by, for example, portraying the prophet Mohammed."

 
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Former Citi Trader Exposes How Wall Street Came To Own The Clintons





"I owe almost my entire Wall Street career to the Clintons. I am not alone; most bankers owe their careers, and their wealth, to them."

 
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Nationalism & Its Discontents: A Deep Rumination On The Meaning Of Trump





The meaning of Trumpism is that Americans want to rid themselves of the burden of empire. Trump’s rise augurs a seismic shift in the foreign policy debate in this country, marking the end of the interventionist consensus that dominates both parties. And it certainly means the final defeat and humiliation of the neoconservatives, who are busy spewing vitriol at him and his 'plebeian' supporters. And that alone is worth whatever price we have to pay for the triumph of Trump. For the neocons are the very core of the War Party: their demise as a politically effective force inside the GOP is an event that every person who wants a more peaceful world has been longing for and should celebrate.

 
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60 Reasons Why Oil Investors Should Hang On





Some things to ignore; some things not to ignore. The inevitable will occur. Supply and demand will cross. The question is will Wall Street notice? Some of the analysts caught the cross in early 2014 but most didn’t.

 
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