Mexico

Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: January 6





  • Average 10-year yield of U.S., Japan and Germany dropped below 1% for the first time ever: Free Money in Bond Markets Shows Global Economy Still Struggling (BBG)
  • Brent falls below $52 as oil hits new five and a half year lows (Reuters)
  • China Fast-Tracks $1 Trillion in Projects to Spur Growth (BBG)
  • Saudi Arabia Raises Price of Main Oil Grade for Asian Buyers (BBG)
  • Oilfield Writedowns Loom as Crude Slump Guts Drilling Values (BBG)
  • Biggest Oil-Rig Drop Since 2009 Spells Tough Year Ahead (BBG)
  • CIA says its inspector general is resigning at end of month (Reuters)
  • Pipeline IPOs Climb on Demand for Returns Immune to Oil (BBG)
  • Natural Gas No Savior for Investors Seeking Oil Refuge (BBG)
  • Euro zone economy ended 2014 in poor shape (Reuters)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

2015 - Life In The Breakdown Lane





“Don’t look back - something might be gaining on you,” Satchel Paige famously warned. For connoisseurs of civilizational collapse, 2014 was merely annoying, a continued pile-up of over-investments in complexity with mounting diminishing returns, metastasizing fragility, and no satisfying resolution. So we enter 2015 with greater tensions than ever before and therefore the likelihood that the inevitable breakdown will release more destructive energy and be that much harder to recover from.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: December 31





  • Behind the Scenes at Sony as Hacking Crisis Unfolded (WSJ)
  • Oil Set for Biggest Slump Since 2008 as OPEC Battles U.S. Shale (BBG)
  • Praet Warning of Oil Effects Signals Higher Chance of ECB QE (BBG)
  • U.S. Opening Door to More Oil Exports Seen Foiling OPEC Strategy (BBG)
  • Venezuela confirms recession, inflation hits 63.6 percent in Nov (Reuters)
  • U.S. to station 150 armored vehicles in Europe (Reuters)
  • China Stocks Rise to Finish Off Big Year (WSJ)
  • RBS Suspends Bonuses of 18 Traders Amid FX Rigging Fine (BBG)
 
Marc To Market's picture

Russia, Oil, China and the Dollar





As the year winds down, a Gordian knot tying Russia, oil prices and China together is receiving a great deal of attention.  Let's see if we can unravel some of the confusing twists and turns. 

We turn first to China's offer of assistance to Russia.  The idea that Russia could activate its CNY150 bln (~$24 bln) currency swap line with China is capturing the imagination of many. 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Houston, You Have A Problem" - Texas Is Headed For A Recession Due To Oil Crash, JPM Warns





Fast forward to today when we are about to learn that Newton's third law of Keynesian economics states that every boom, has an equal and opposite bust. Which brings us to Texas, the one state that more than any other, has benefited over the past 5 years from the Shale miracle. And now with crude sinking by the day, it is time to unwind all those gains, and give back all those jobs. Did we mention: highly compensated, very well-paying jobs, not the restaurant, clerical, waiter, retail, part-time minimum-wage jobs the "recovery" has been flooded with. Here is JPM's Michael Feroli explaining why Houston suddenly has a very big problem.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Things That Make You Go Hmmm... Like A 'Run' On The Gold 'Bank'





Say what you want about the gold price languishing below $1200 (or not, as the case may be, after this week), and say what you want about the technical picture or the “6,000-year bubble,” as Citi’s Willem Buiter recently termed it; but know this: gold is an insurance policy — not a trading vehicle — and the time to assess gold is when people have a sudden need for insurance. When that day comes - and believe me, it’s coming - the price will be the very last thing that matters. It will be purely and simply a matter of securing possession - bubble or not - and at any price. That price will NOT be $1200. A “run” on the gold “bank”  would undoubtedly lead to one of those Warren Buffett moments when a bunch of people are left standing naked on the shore. It is also a phenomenon which will begin quietly before suddenly exploding into life. If you listen very carefully, you can hear something happening...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

2014 Year In Review (Part 1): The Final Throes Of A Geopolitical Game Of Tetris





Every year, David Collum writes a detailed "Year in Review" synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year's is no exception. "I have not seen a year in which so many risks - some truly existential - piled up so quickly. Each risk has its own, often unknown, probability of morphing into a destructive force. It feels like we’re in the final throes of a geopolitical Game of Tetris as financial and political authorities race to place the pieces correctly. But the acceleration is palpable. The proximate trigger for pain and ultimately a collapse can be small, as anyone who’s ever stepped barefoot on a Lego knows..."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The USA Is World #1... In Young Adult Income Inequality





Think young adults in Mexico, Thailand, Philippines, and Russia have it tough? Think again. 20-24 year-olds in the USA have an average gross income over 40% below the national average. That is the worst disparity in the world... USA USA USA!!

 
EconMatters's picture

The Russia, Mexico & OPEC Failed Agreement on Production Cuts was Short Sighted





Regardless what happens with the U.S. Shale, the Cartel is always going to be worse off by not agreeing to production cuts.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

$1 Trillion In Global CapEx At "Unambiguous" Risk As A Result Of Crude Crash





Just like with the Mohammed Islam story, the religious belief by the cheerleading crew that the crashing price of oil is so "unambiguously, unquestionably, undisputably" good for the US is so taken for granted, that nobody actually checked the facts.So here is one such attempt by the FT, which writes that "almost $1 trillion of spending on future oil projects is at risk as a result of the plunge in crude to $60."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Oil: The Battle For Market Share & The Saudi's 1985 Playbook





In 1985, the Saudis chose volume over price to defend their market share against new production from the North Sea, as well as cheating/discounting from other OPEC members in a period of weak demand. The Saudis had warned the world of their intentions, but many thought “it was merely an elaborate warning designed to scare other OPEC countries and restore discipline.” The parallels with today’s market structure are hard to miss, and the Saudi’s essential playbook remains the same...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Oil Producers' Currencies Are Collapsing-er





Despite numerous interventions by Mexico, Russia, and Nigeria, the free-fall continues in their currencies. The Russian Ruble is the poster-child (down 40% since June alone - testing 58/USD today) but the crash in Mexico and Brazil is accelerating in the last week. Default risks are surging for all of the Oil-Producing nations with Russia topping 450bps (5Y CDS) .

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Should You Believe What They Tell You? Or What You See?





Sometimes I wish I could just passively accept what my government monarchs and their mainstream media mouthpieces feed me on a daily basis. Why do I have to question everything I’m told? Life would be much simpler and I could concentrate on more important things like the size of Kim Kardashian’s ass... The willfully ignorant masses, dumbed down by government education, lured into obesity by corporate toxic packaged sludge disguised as food products, manipulated, controlled and molded by an unseen governing class of rich men, and kept docile through never ending corporate media propaganda, are nothing but pawns to the arrogant sociopathic pricks pulling the wires in this corporate fascist empire of debt.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"When The Market Moves Fast, Stuff Blows Up"





One of our old rules of trading is that whenever a major asset class, index, or other benchmark has a sudden, rapid move in price, something blows up. Sky high. That’s because people get used to regimes. They get used to a certain state of affairs with a lack of volatility. They become complacent. Maybe they stop hedging. Maybe they allow themselves to have unbounded downside risk. Maybe they start gambling. So what's going to blow up?

 
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