Mexico

Tyler Durden's picture

Argentina Peso Gap Between Official And Black Market Rate Hits To 100%, BMWs Become Inflation Hedge





Despite efforts by the government to quell the black-market (or blue-dollar) for Argentina's foreign exchange, the unofficial rate surged yesterday to 10.45 Pesos per USD. This is now double the official rate of 5.22 Pesos per USD. This implicit 50% devaluation comes amid the growing realization that there is no savings option to maintain the purchasing power of the peso in the context of sustained high inflation (no matter what the officials say) and negative real interest rates. The government is not amused, suggesting the devaluation won't happen (just as Mexico did right up until the day before they devalued), "those who seek to make money at the expense of devaluations must wait for another government." Perhaps the government should be careful with their threats? And of course, this could never happen in the US or Japan, right?

 
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Key Events And Issues In The Week Ahead





In the US, retail sales are expected to continue to slow in the headline, while retail sales ex autos, building materials, and gas should turn positive in April according to Wall Street analysts. Goldman remains below consensus for Thursday's Philadelphia Fed survey, forecasting a slight improvement on the previous month. The firm also expects the flash reading for Euro area Q1 GDP to come in slightly below consensus, consistent with a shallow contraction. We forecast German GDP will turn positive in Q1 after Q4 2012's negative reading. In Japan, GS sees Q1 GDP at 2.8% qoq ann., slightly above consensus, with stronger consumer spending the main driver. Among the central bank meetings this week, Russia, Chile, and Indonesia are expected to remain on hold, in line with consensus.

 
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Frontrunning: May 13





  • Hilsenrath: A Top Contender at the Fed Faces Test Over Easy Money (WSJ)
  • Yen drops further as G7 avoids criticizing Japan (Reuters)
  • Markets missed Flaherty’s clues on next Bank of Canada chief (G&M)
  • Republicans turn screws over Tea Party tax probes (FT)
  • Dual-track Libor replacement lined up (FT)
  • Risks to China recovery seen as factory output underwhelms (Reuters)
  • Barack Obama’s goal of universal healthcare could be set back significantly by Texas Governor Rick Perry (FT)
  • Gold Bears Pull $20.8 Billion as BlackRock Says Buy (BBG)
  • Mexico sets shelters as volcano shakes, spews ash (AP)
  • Europe Eases Corporate Tax Dodge as Worker Burdens Rise (BBG)
  • IPOs Set to Raise Most Cash Since Crisis (WSJ)
  • Melting Ice Opens Fight Over Sea Routes for Arctic Debate (BBG)
  • Top hedge funds bet on Greek banks (FT)
  • Icahn Asks Investors to Make Big Bet on a Debt-Laden Dell (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: May 8





  • Pentagon Plans for the Worst in Syria (WSJ)
  • Russia and US agree to Syria conference after Moscow talks (FT)
  • Hedge Funds Rush Into Debt Trading With $108 Billion (BBG)
  • Detroit is the new "deep value" - Hedge funds in search of distress take a look at Detroit (Reuters)
  • Commodities hedge funds suffer weak first quarter (FT)
  • But... but... Abenomics - Toshiba posts 62% decline in Q1 net profit (WSJ)
  • Americans Are Borrowing Again but Still Less Than Before Freeze (WSJ)
  • Man Utd announce Alex Ferguson to retire (FT)
  • Asmussen Says ECB Discussed ABS Purchases to Spur SME Lending (BBG)
  • Benghazi Attack Set for New Review (WSJ)
  • Belgium Says 31 People Arrested Over $50 Million Diamond Theft (BBG)
  • Brazilian diplomat Roberto Azevêdo wins WTO leadership battle (FT)
  • Bangladesh Garment Factory Building Collapse Toll Reaches 782 (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Real Cypriot "Blueprint" - How To Confiscate $32 Trillion In "Offshore Wealth"





The Cypriot deposit confiscation has come and gone (and in a parallel world in which the global Bernanke-put never existed and in which bank shareholders were not untouchable, this is precisely how real-time bank restructurings should have taken place), but fears remain that the country's "resolution" mechanism will be the template for future instances of "resolving" insolvent banks. That may or may not be the case: the only way to know for sure is during the next European bank bailout, but one thing is certain - Cyprus was certainly a template when it comes to how a world full of insolvent sovereigns (all engaged in currency warfare), where easing, quantitative or otherwise no longer works to boost the economy, will approach what is the last chance for monetary replenishment - taxation of financial assets, just as we warned first back in 2011. Specifically, Cyprus showed the "template" for confiscating Russian oligarch billionaire "ill-gotten", untaxed cash, which many in Germany demanded should be the quid for ongoing German-funded quo. And here's the rub. There is more where said "ill-gotten" cash has come from. Much more... $32 trillion more.

 
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Frontrunning: May 7





  • Microsoft prepares U-turn on Windows 8 (FT), Microsoft admits failure on Windows 8 (MW), After Bumpy Start, Microsoft Rethinks Windows 8 (NYT)
  • China reports four more bird flu deaths, toll rises to 31 (Reuters)
  • Republicans shift stance on US budget (FT)
  • NYC Tallest Condo Corridor Gets New Entrant With Steinway (BBG)
  • U.S. Says China's Government, Military Used Cyberespionage (WSJ)
  • China rejects Pentagon charges of military espionage (Reuters)
  • Bank of China Cuts Off North Korean Bank (WSJ)
  • Libya defense minister quits over siege of ministries by gunmen (Reuters)
  • London Recruiter Says City Job Vacancies Rose 19% (BBG)
  • Colleges Cut Prices by Providing More Financial Aid (WSJ)  or, said otherwise, loans
  • Jeweler agrees to plead guilty in KPMG insider-trading case (LA Times)
 
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Frontrunning: May 1





  • Physical demand up: U.S. Mint Sales of Gold Coins Jump to Highest in Three Years (BBG)
  • Paper demand down: Gold ETP Holdings Cap Record Drop as $17.9 Billion Wiped Out (BBG)
  • It's May 1 not April 1: Fed Seen Slowing Stimulus With QE Cut by End of This Year (BBG)
  • Another great step for Abenomics: Sony leadership to forgo bonuses after broken promise on profits (FT)
  • High-Speed Traders Exploit Loophole (WSJ)
  • It's peanut Breaburn jelly time: How Google UK clouds its tax liabilities (Reuters)
  • Frowny face day at the Mark Zandi household: Obama Said to Choose Watt to Lead Fannie Mae Regulator (BBG)
  • Russia’s 20 Biggest Billionaires Keep Riches From Putin (BBG)
  • China Affair With Cheap Diamonds Heats Mass Market (BBG)
  • China's emotional ties to North Korea run deep in border city (Reuters)
  • US companies must use cash piles for capex (FT) ... and yet they aren't. Tax anyone who doesn't spend for CapEx!
  • Chinese Way of Doing Business: In Cash We Trust (NYT)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Jim O'Neill's Farewell Letter





Over the years, Jim O'Neill, former Chairman of GSAM, rose to fame for pegging the BRIC acronym (no such luck for the guy who came up with the far more applicable and accurate PIIGS, or STUPIDS, monikers, but that's neither here nor there). O'Neill was correct in suggesting, about a decade ago, that the rise of the middle class in these countries and their purchasing power would prove to be a major driving force in the world economy. O'Neill was wrong in his conclusion as to what the ultimate driver of said purchasing power would be: as it has become all too clear with the entire world drowning in debt (and recently China), it was pure and simply debt. O'Neill was horribly wrong after the Great Financial Crisis when he suggested that it would be the BRIC nation that would push the world out of depression. To the contrary, not only is the world not out of depression as the fourth consecutive year of deteriorating economic data confirms (long since disconnected with the actual capital markets), but it is the wanton money (and bad debt) creation by the central banks of the developed world (as every instance of easing by China has led to an immediate surge of inflation in the domestic market) that has so far allowed the day of reckoning, and waterfall debt liquidations, to take place (and certainly don't look at the stock index performance of China, Brazil, India or Russia). Despite his errors, he has been a good chap having taken much of the abuse piled upon him here at Zero Hedge somewhat stoically, as well as a fervent ManU supporter, certainly at least somewhat of a redeeming quality. Attached please find his final, farewell letter as Chairman of the Goldman Asset Management division, as he moves on to less tentacular pastures.

 
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Frontrunning: April 29





  • Gold Bears Defy Rally as Goldman Closes Short Wager (BBG)
  • Still stuck on central-bank life support (Reuters)
  • Ebbing Inflation Means More Easy Money (BBG)
  • So much for socialist wealth redistribution then? François Hollande to woo French business with tax cut (FT)
  • Billionaires Flee Havens as Trillions Pursued Offshore (BBG)
  • Companies Feel Pinch on Sales in Europe (WSJ)
  • Brussels plan will ‘kill off’ money funds (FT)
  • Danes as Most-Indebted in World Resist Credit (BBG)
  • Syria says prime minister survives Damascus bomb attack (Reuters)
  • Syria: Al-Qaeda's battle for control of Assad's chemical weapons plant (Telegraph)
  • Nokia Betting on $20 Handset as It Loses Ground on IPhone (BBG)
  • Rapid rise of chat apps slims texting cash cow for mobile groups (FT)
  • Calgary bitcoin exchange fighting bank backlash in Canada (Calgary Herald)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: America: #1 In Fear, Stress, Anger, Divorce, Obesity, Anti-Depressants, Etc.





The United States is a deeply unhappy place.  We are a nation that is absolutely consumed by fear, stress, anger and depression.  It isn't just our economy that is falling apart - the very fabric of society is starting to come apart at the seams and it is because of what is happening to us on the inside. We are overwhelmed by anxiety, and much of the time the ways that we choose to deal with those emotions lead to some very self-destructive behaviors.  Americans have experienced a standard of living far beyond the wildest dreams of most societies throughout human history, and yet we are an absolutely miserable people.  Why is this?  Why is America #1 in so many negative categories? There is vast material wealth all around us.  So why can't we be happy?

 
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Frontrunning: April 23





  • China’s Recovery Falters as Manufacturing Growth Cools (BBG)
  • Gloomy eurozone output points to rate cut (FT)
  • Limit Austerity, EU appartchik Barroso Says (WSJ)
  • Regulators Get Banks to Rein In Bonus Pay (WSJ)
  • SEC looks to ease rules for launching ETFs (Reuters)
  • Easy come, easy go: U.S. Seizes $21 Million From Electric Car Maker Fisker (WSJ)
  • Japan nationalists near disputed isles (Reuters)
  • OECD in fresh warning on Japan debt (FT)
  • S&P says more than one-third chance of Japan downgrade, cites risks to Abenomics (Reuters)
 
testosteronepit's picture

Aftermath Of A Bubble And What Rises From The Ashes





Participants don’t see them. Outsiders shake their heads, until they get sucked in. Central banks create them, but deny their existence. Risks no longer exist. Take natural gas.

 
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