Mexico

Their names are familiar to all of us: Cleveland, Flint, Youngstown, Saginaw, Gary, Toledo, Reading, Akron, Flint and Buffalo were all once booming manufacturing cities that were absolutely packed with thriving middle class families. But now most of the manufacturing jobs are gone and all of those cities are just shadows of their former selves.

As reported yesterday, The SCOTUS dealt a major blow to Argentina hopes it would avoid making payments on its "holdout" bonds when it enforced a lower-court ruling that said Argentina can't make payments on its restructured debt unless it also pays holdout hedge funds headed by Elliott Management, best known for briefly seizing an Argentina ship in late 2012. The immediate result was a major rout in the country's sovereign bonds, which also sent Argentina CDS soaring. Sadly for Argentina, this would hardly be the end of it, and about an hour ago, Standard & Poor added insult to injury and lowered its long-term foreign currency rating on Argentina to CCC- from CCC+ citing a "higher risk of default on the country's foreign currency debt." As a result, yesterday's drop in bonds has continued, if at a more moderate pace, and the country's USD bond due 2024 hav continued to sink in intraday trading.  So what is next for the cash-strapped Latin American country for which the road ahead is suddenly quite "challenging" and default appears increasing like the only way out? For the answer we go to Citi's Jeffrey Williams who has laid out the five most likely developments.

This week brings some key events and releases in DMs, including US FOMC (Goldman expects $10bn tapering, in line with consensus), IP, CPI, and Philly Fed (expect 13.5), EA final May CPI (expect 0.50%), and MP decisions in Norway and Switzerland (expect no change in either).

Here is what happens to GM when month after month it confirms it has flunked the Derek Zoolander school for bailed out companies who can't build cars good: GM has now recalled 70% more cares than it sold in all of 2013, and has recalled 83% more cars in the first 6 months of 2014 than it did in the entire 2008-2013 period!

• Tea Party struggles to repeat Cantor-style shock in Tennessee (Reuters)
• Iran Deploys Forces to Fight al Qaeda-Inspired Militants in Iraq (WSJ)
• Oil Rallies as Militant Advance in Iraq Threatens Crude (BBG)
• Gold Set for First Back-to-Back Weekly Gain Since April (BBG)
• Hedge Funds Get Stung by Slow Markets (WSJ)
• Sterling nears 5-year high after Carney speech (FT)
• Britain Warns Boom in Real-Estate Prices Threatens Economy (WSJ)
• East Europe Leaders Urge EU Unity to Counter Russia (BBG)
• Formula One Said to Be Valued at $8 Billion as Malone Seeks Stake (BBG)
• Dumb and dumber: Abe Plans Company Tax Cut in 2015 as Kuroda Warns on Budget (BBG)

Believe it or not, the main driver of risk overnight had nothing to do with Iraq, with the global economy or even with hopes for more liquidity, and everything to do with a largely meaningless component of Japan's future tax policy, namely whether or not Abe (who at this pace of soaring imported inflation and plunging wages won't have to worry much about 2015 as he won't be PM then) should cut the corporate tax rate in 2015. As Bloomberg reported, Abe, speaking to reporters in Tokyo today after a meeting with Finance Minister Taro Aso and Economy Minister Akira Amari, said the plan would bring the rate under 30 percent in a few years. He said alternative revenue will be secured for the move, which requires approval from the Diet.

This is the story of Ethan Chaplin, who back in April was twirling a pencil in his 7th grade class in Vernon, NJ. One of the class bullies saw an opportunity to be a jerk and yelled: "He’s making gun motions, send him to juvie." Rather than demonstrating any sort of common sense, the teacher apparently had a panic attack and reported him, which resulted in a two-day suspension. As if that part of the story isn’t bizarre enough, Ethan wasn’t allowed to return to class until he underwent a psychological evaluation. Amazingly, the saga manages to get even worse. Just today, we find out that New Jersey is threatening to take Ethan away from his father. Incredibly, the state is claiming that the prior psychological evaluation wasn’t sufficient and more testing needs to be done. Since his father Michael is pushing back, the loss of custodianship has been threatened.

• Attorneys Known for Large Civil Settlements Line Up to Sue GM Over Company's Handling of Defective Ignition Switches (WSJ)
• Pakistani Taliban attack airport in Karachi, 27 dead (Reuters)
• U.S. Official: Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl Has Declined to Speak to His Family (WSJ)
• Ukraine Gas Talks Resume in Brussels to Avoid Cut-off This Week  (BBG)
• China's Central Bank Flexes Muscle (WSJ)
• China says Vietnam, Philippines' mingling on disputed isle a 'farce' (Reuters)
• World Needs Record Saudi Oil Supply as OPEC Convenes (BBG)
• Kraft Raises Prices on Maxwell House, Yuban U.S. Coffee Products (BBG)
• United Continental: One Sick Bird (WSJ)

While we are led to understand that the US economy contracting at a pace not seen in three years was blamed on the snow (which somehow subtracted $100 billion in US economic growth for Q1 from early estimates of over 2.5% Q1 GDP estimates), we are not sure if one can also accuse snow for what the Mexican central bank just announced, when in a seemingly shocking announcement, it reported that it cut rates from 3.50% to 3.00%, a move expected by precisely zero economists out of the 20 polled by Bloomberg.

• BANXICO SAYS DOMESTIC SPENDING, PRIVATE INVESTMENT WEAK
• BANXICO DOESN’T SEE PRESSURE ON INFLATION FROM AGGREGATE DEMAND
• BANXICO SAYS POOR PERFORMANCE SUGGESTS MODERATE 2Q RECOVERY
• BANXICO SAYS MEXICO’S 1Q ECONOMIC DYNAMISM WORSE THAN EXPECTED

Yup, sure sounds like a whole lot of snow.

• Canada Aims to Sell Its Oil Beyond U.S (WSJ)
• ECB Unanimity May Prove Fleeting (WSJ)
• Chinese military spending exceeds $145 billion, drones advanced: U.S. (Reuters)
• France to sell 10 warships to Russia next? BNP Executive Firings Sought by Top New York Bank Regulator Amid Probe (BBG)
• Vodafone says governments have direct access to eavesdrop in some countries (Reuters)
• Home Price Gains of 20% Vanish as Hottest Markets Cool (BBG)
• G-7 Heads Warn Moscow Before Facing Putin (WSJ)
• Barclays Fine Spurs U.K. Scrutiny of Derivatives Conflict (BBG)
• "Or Costs" - Obama Says Putin Running Out of Time Over Ukraine (BBG)
• Banca Monte Paschi Falls After Offering New Stock at 35.5% Discount (BBG)

Timothy Geithner is likely to go down in American history as one of the most dangerous, destructive cronies to have ever wielded government power. The man is so completely and totally full of shit it’s almost impossible not to notice. The last thing we’d ever want to do in our free time is read a lengthy book filled with Geithner lies and propaganda, so we owe a large debt of gratitude to former Congressional staffer Matt Stoller for doing it for us. Stoller simply tears Geither apart limb from limb, detailing obvious lies about the financial crisis, and even more interestingly, Geithner’s bizarre bio, replete with mysterious and inexplicable promotions into positions of power..."Geithner is at heart a grifter, a petty con artist with the right manners and breeding to lie at the top echelons of American finance..."

• At least 74 dead in crashes similar to those GM linked to faulty switches (Reuters)
• Obama Calls for $1 Billion Europe Security Fund; Will Increase U.S. Military Presence in Eastern Europe (WSJ)
• Euro Inflation Slowing More Than Forecast Pressures ECB (BBG)
• China accelerates as euro zone stumbles (Reuters)
• Russia says Ukraine situation worsening, submits U.N. resolution (Reuters)
• Secondary Sales Squeeze Investors (WSJ)
• Barclays Said to Start Cutting Jobs in Investment Banking Unit (Bloomberg)
• Backlash Grows on Release of Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl in Taliban Prisoner Swap (WSJ)
• For fallen soldiers' families, Bergdahl release stirs resentment (Reuters)
• PIMCO's Gross stares at record outflow (Reuters)

This week's busy calendar starts off with today’s global PMIs and ISMs. On Tuesday, President Obama begins a four day European trip ahead of the G7 meeting which starts on Wednesday. This G7 meeting is replacing the G8 meeting that was originally scheduled in Sochi but was cancelled after Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Tuesday’s data docket is important with Euroarea data releases including inflation and unemployment expected to further cement the ECB’s resolve in easing policy come Thursday. Wednesday features the global services ISMs and PMIs. Other data releases scheduled for that day includes the ADP employment report, which will provide an important preview to Friday’s NFP, and US trade. The Fed releases its Beige Book on Wednesday too and the second estimates of Euroarea GDP will be published on Wednesday as well. Apart from the ECB on Thursday, we also have the BoE policy meeting.

Several days ago, we looked at the big picture of US immigration, presenting the place of origin of America's 40 million foreign-born residents. However, as is always the case with the US, focusing on the big picture at the national level ignores the nuances at the state level. The following two charts using Pew Research data, compiled by the WaPo, show the dramatic changes in the land of origin of US immigrants, beginning with 1910 when Germany was the primary driver of US-born residents, accounting for 18% of US immigrants, and proceeding through 2010, when Mexico has become the biggest source of foreign-born residents: the birthplace of 29% of all immigrants in the US.

There are over 40.7 million foreign-born residents living in America. Iceland, Bermuda, and Samoa have the lowest level of foreign-born population in the United States but it is Mexico that is head, shoulders, and torso above the rest with 28.2% of the foreign-born population from just aross the border. Russia, interestingly, is 20th (just ahead of Iran in 21st place). We can only hope not all Russian immigrants are currently HFT "traders."