Mexico

Frontrunning: November 5

  • BOE Stays Cautious on Rate-Hike Timing as Inflation Outlook Cut (BBG)
  • China Enters Bull Market (WSJ)
  • Britain says Islamic State likely brought down Russian plane (Reuters)
  • Dollar jumps as markets fix on December rate expectations (Reuters)
  • Activist Investor Bill Ackman Plays Defense (WSJ)
  • BOJ Survey Data Reveals Signs of Growing Inequality in Japan (BBG)
  • UAW Warns of General Motors Strike If Workers Fail to Approve Contract (WSJ)

The Best And Worst Performing Assets In October And YTD

The torrid October, with its historic S&P500 point rally, is finally in the history books, and at least for a select group of hedge funds such as Glenview, Pershing Square and Greenlight and certainly their L.P.s, a very scary Halloween couldn't come fast enough, leading to losses between 15% and 20%. How did everyone else fare? Below, courtesy of Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid, is a summary of what worked in October (and YTD), and what didn't.

Homicide Rates Cut In Half Over Past 20 Years (While New Gun Ownership Soared)

The American public believes that homicides and gun deaths are increasing in the United States. Those who think violence is getting worse should probably watch less television and look around them instead. The murder rate in the US is currently similar to 1950s levels. Meanwhile, the number of privately owned guns (and gun commerce in general) in the United States has increased substantially in recent decades.

Embracing The Dark Side: A Short History Of The Pathological Neocon Quest For Empire

Nearly all empires end due to over-extension. If brave people from Ottawa to Baghdad simply say “enough” within a brief space of time, hopefully this empire can dissolve relatively peacefully like the Soviet Empire did, leaving its host civilization intact, instead of dragging that civilization into oblivion along with it like the Roman Empire did. But beware, the imperial war party will not go quietly into the night, unless we in their domestic tax base insist that there is no other way. Russia’s entry into Syria has thrown all of the neocons’ schemes into disarray, as even Jordan, that favorite proxy force in Israel’s dreams of regional dominance, has begun coordinating with Russia, in spite of its billion dollars a year of annual aid from Washington. Et tu Jordan?!

How Long Can OPEC Hold Out?

It is possible that we might witness the formation of two blocks within OPEC during the next December 4 meet in Vienna. One, led by Venezuela, Ecuador, Libya and Algeria that would want to reduce production levels and the other led by Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait that would stick to the current strategy of defending market shar. In the end, it will come down to survival of the fittest. Players who have higher breakeven costs will be the ones who will blink first and thereby reduce their production levels.

Meet "Stunningly Catastrophic" Patricia, The World's Strongest Storm Ever Is About To Hit Mexico

"Stunning, historic, mind-boggling, and catastrophic" is how Weather Underground's Jeff Masters sums up Hurricane Patricia, which intensified to an incredible-strength Category 5 storm with 200 mph winds overnight as it approaches the Mexican coast. As The NY Times reports, The World Meteorological Organization warned that the hurricane’s strength was comparable to that of Typhoon Haiyan, which caused devastation in the Philippines in 2013, and so Mexico has declared a state of emergency for Puerto Vallarta (with officials warning that storm surges could cause waves of up to 39 feet) as she is forecast to hit the coast between 6 and 10pm ET. Hurricane Patricia is "uncharted territory."

Frontrunning: October 23

  • China's central bank cuts rates for sixth time since November (Reuters)
  • Global stocks hit two-month high on dovish Draghi message (Reuters)
  • $6.5 Billion in Energy Writedowns and We're Just Getting Started (BBG)
  • Alphabet, formerly Google, sets share buyback, shares jump (Reuters)
  • Hurricane Patricia, Stronger Than Katrina, Nears Mexico (BBG)
  • TVA Cleared to Start First New U.S. Nuclear Power Plant in Nearly 20 Years (WSJ)

Mexico Is Considering Legalizing Cannabis To Weaken Drug Cartels

Later this month, the supreme court of Mexico will review the country’s current prohibition of marijuana, as well as the possibility of legalizing the plant for medical and recreational use. Medical marijuana is currently legal in Mexico, but the black market drug trade in the country continues to cause widespread violence, drug cartel, and gang activity, just as it does in America.

Moving Toward A One World Government, A One World Economy And A One World Religion

The global elite have never been closer to their goal of a united world.  Thanks to a series of interlocking treaties and international agreements, the governance of this planet is increasingly becoming globalized and centralized, but most people don’t seem alarmed by this at all.  In the past 30 days, we have seen some of the biggest steps toward a one world government, a one world economy and a one world religion that we have ever witnessed, but these events have sparked very little public discussion or debate...

The Mistake Of Only Comparing US Murder Rates To "Developed" Countries

Much of the political thinking about violence in the United States comes from unfavorable comparisons between the United States and a series of cherry-picked countries with lower murder rates and with fewer guns per capita. This is, in turn, supposed to fill Americans with a sense of shame and illustrate that the United States should be regarded as some sort of pariah nation because of its murder rate. However, politically, historically, and demographically, the US has little in common with these nations.

As Worldwide Sales Collapse, VW's Dieselgate Scandal Could Cost Up To $87 Billion In Total

"The market does not appear to be discounting negative knock-on effects. The outcome for recall costs and fines is unclear and largely depends on the engine performance post repair," said a Credit Suisse analyst in its report on the scandal. Estimates from Credit Suisse peg the costs of Dieselgate at a worst-case scenarios of $87 billion. This would make the VW scandal could be even bigger than Enron Scandal and BP Deepwater Scandal combined.