Mexico

Frontrunning: November 22

  • Record highs for Wall Street quartet send other stocks higher (Reuters)
  • Oil prices rise to highest this month on hopes of OPEC deal (Reuters)
  • OPEC Likely to Reach Output Consensus, Delegate Says (WSJ)
  • Trump’s Targets in First 100 Days: Trade, Regulation, Corruption (BBG)
  • Trump Poised to Push Nafta Changes, Pressure Mexico on Trade (WSJ)

Brace For A Year Of "Peak Everything, Big Rotations" - Here Is BofA's Guide How To Trade It

1) Peak Liquidity: era of excess liquidity is over; 2) Peak Inequality: more fiscal stimulus to address inequality; 3) Peak Globalization: free movement of trade, labor, capital ending; FX wars starting; 4) Peak Deflation: low point in bond yields now behind us; 5) Trough Volatility: era of “flash volatility” and “pain trades” continues; 6) Peak Passive: active investors to outperform passive; 7) Transforming World: robotics, eCommerce constrain inflation upside

"Brace For Economic Disruption" SocGen Sees "Sharp Rise In Gold" As India Plans Cap On Cash Holdings

India's 'de-monetization' scheme has caused chaos across the nation, and while SocGen says the government's plan may have some short-term success in curbing so-called 'black-money', investors should "brace for economic disruption" as Bloomberg reports the Indian government is considering a cap on cash holdings for individuals. As SocGen concludes, "people will now be more inclined to park their black income in gold rather than in currency."

Ford CEO Folds? Trump Confirms Carmaker Won't Move Production To Mexico

Just hours after Ford CEO complained of the "huge impact" of Donald Trump's proposed trade plans, following the company's plan to move a substantial portion of its passenger-car production to Mexico from a factory in Michigan, Donald Trump tweeted “Just got a call from my friend Bill Ford, Chairman of Ford, who advised me that he will be keeping the Lincoln plant in Kentucky -- no Mexico," seemingly winning his first 'america-first' victory.

Peso Plunges After Banxico Hikes Rates 50bps, Fears "Change To US Relationship"

Banxico hike rates by 50bps - meeting expectations - to 5.25% (the highest since 2009) in their first post-Trump statement. Warning that the Mexican economy "faces elevated uncertainty" hike for the fourth time, presumably in an effort to support the currency but fears that a more hawkish Fed will be more aggressive going forward sparked renewed selling in the Peso.

An "Anti-Establishment" Trump Would Pardon Edward Snowden

Trump’s legacy as president is a blank slate, it could go either way. If he wants to keep his current base of support and prove his skeptics wrong, he would be wise to pardon Edward Snowden, and dish out the first real blow to the establishment during his first days in office.

Goldman Reveals Its Top Trade Recommendations For 2017

  • Top Trade #1: Long US$ vs GBP and EUR
  • Top Trade #2: RMB weakening: Long $/CNY
  • Top Trade #3: Long BRL, RUB, INR and ZAR, short KRW and SGD
  • Top Trade #4: Long Brazil, India and Poland, FX un-hedged
  • Top Trade #5: Long 10-year US$ and EUR inflation
  • Top Trade #6: Long EURO STOXX 50 2018 dividends

Frontrunning: November 17

  • Dollar halts charge as bashed bonds steady (Reuters)
  • BOJ Fires Warning at Bond Market With Unlimited Buying Plan (BBG)
  • Trump Flouts Traditions Heading Into an Office Defined by Them (BBG)
  • Mr. Hedge Fund Goes to Washington, Looking for Ally in Trump (BBG)
  • Donald Trump’s Son-in-Law, Jared Kushner, Could Get Key White House Role (WSJ)

Global Bonds Plunge As "Trumpflation" Rally Returns, Dollar Jumps

After taking a one day breather, the "Trumpflation Rally" returned with a vengeance as global government bonds tumbled and the dollar rose on renewed speculation the economic outlook is strong enough to allow the Federal Reserve to hike in December (odds are now 94%). Asian shares rose, industrial metals and crude oil fell, European shares and US equity futures were pressured.

The Catastrophic Consequences Of Peak Oil Demand

With OPEC’s 2016 World Oil Outlook now grimly forecasting that peak oil demand could become a reality in just over a decade, and natural gas and renewables chomping at the bit to cannibalize commodity market growth, it may be good for the environment, but the trade-off will be global instability on a catastrophic level.