Back in 2009 we first warned that the market is now just a "market" where between the direct manipulation of all asset-prices by the firehose Fed and its peers, and the explicit rigging of stock prices by the HFTs, there is no such thing as a market left. Back then, we were called tinfoil something or another. Now that everyone admits the Fed's only purpose is to push asset prices higher, and the topic of HFT's rigging of markets is now a blockbuster book, those accusations have grown silent. In fact, the only thing that remains are the very loud screams as increasingly more often, some unknown or well-known trader and/or investor, with a several year delay, stumbles on our conclusion and realizes that the game (i.e., market) is so rigged, manipulated and broken, that the only winning move was not to play in the first place. Today's case in point Andrew Cunagin, the founder of Rinehart Capital Partners LLC, a hedge fund backed by hedge-fund veteran Lee Ainslie and specialized in emerging-markets stock-picking, and who as the Wall Street Journal reported earlier, is closing. The closure is not news: what Cunagin blames the closure on, however, is.
U.S. District Judge Carl Barbier in New Orleans ruled today that BP was "grossly negligent" in the 2010 Deepwater Horizon rig explosion and may face up to $18 billion in civil penalties, according to The WSJ. In addition, Transocean and Halliburton were found 'negligent' - a lessor offense - (fines up to $1,100 per barrel for 'negligence', $4,300 for 'gross negligence'). This result comes 2 years after BP agreed to accept criminal responsibility for the disaster and to pay $4.5 billion in fines and restitution. BP quickly issued a statement that it will appeal the decision and believes the findings "are not supported by evidence at trial."
- Confusion as Ukraine and Russia announce progress towards peace (Reuters)... but not for stock buying algos, they know everything
- Obama Expresses Skepticism About Possible Ukraine Cease-Fire (WSJ)
- Fighters Unwind in Russia Where Beer Doesn’t Spell Death (BBG)
- Despite dangers, U.S. journalist Sotloff was determined to record Arab Spring's human toll (Reuters)
- New Beheading Video Spurs Calls for Global Response (BBG)
- Christie’s Spending on Outside Lawyers Passes $50 Million (BBG)
- IEX to Apply for Exchange Status (WSJ)
- UK says not ruling out airstrikes against Islamic State, says hostage video genuine (Reuters)
“Everyone in the country was in shock. People’s net worth had devalued more than 53% overnight.”
Looking back, it was so obvious. But most people ignored the warning signs following the government's reassurances that all would be well... It’s human nature to want to believe that everything is going to be OK. Are we so different today?
The US may be closed on Monday, but after a summer lull that has seen trading volumes plunge to CYNKian lows, activity is set to come back with a bang (if only for the sake of banks' flow desk revenue) with both a key ECB decision due later this week, as well as the August Nonfarm Payrolls print set for Friday. Among the other events, in the US we have the ISM manufacturing on Tuesday, with markets expecting a broadly unchanged reading of 57.0 for August although prices paid are expecting to decline modestly. Then it is ADP on Thursday (a day later than usual) ahead of Payrolls Friday. The Payrolls print is again one of those "most important ever" number since it comes ahead of the the September 16-17 FOMC meeting and on the heels of the moderation of several key data series (retail sales, personal consumption, inflation). Consensus expects a +225K number and this time it is unclear if a big miss will be great news for stocks or finally bad, as 5 years into ZIRP the US economy should be roaring on all cylinders and not sputtering every other month invoking "hopes" of even more central bank intervention.
Dispassionate look at the week ahead, without the hysterics of the sky is falling or the mother of all crises is around the corner.
"Government engineered false-flag terrorism is a historically established fact. With all this hype circling ISIS, I have to suggest that maybe, just maybe, we are being given the ultimate scapegoat for the ultimate false flag attack. I believe the time is in fact ripe for a large scale false-flag on American soil."
The goal will be to terrify you and those around you into seeking out a more powerful, more centralized government authority to protect your security, to provide cover for the continued planned collapse of American society into third world status, and out of these ashes, the centralization of the political and financial foundations of our world into the hands of an elite few.
One of the great economic myths of our time is Japan’s “lost decades.” As Japan doubles-down on inflationary stimulus, it’s worth reviewing the facts. The truth is that the Japanese and US economies have performed in lock-step since 2000, and their performances have matched each other going as far back as 1980. Either Japan’s not in crisis, or the US has been in crisis for a good thirty-five years. You can’t have it both ways... So, Who Benefits from the “Lost Decades” Myth?
Investors in European Bonds are running over each other all in an effort to front run what the Big Banks have been begging the ECB to begin a bond buying program. It is hilarious as European yields are already ridiculously low right now, how much lower do they think these yields can go?
Based on the results of a decade of search data, NY Times offers a rather disturbing portrait of the very different subjects that occupy the thoughts of richer America and poorer America. Offering a glimpse into the day-to-day thinking behind the nation's inequality, searches in the hardest places to live include health problems, weight-loss diets, guns, video games, religion and Antichrist!? In the easiest places to live, cameras, iPads, and baby massage are highly correlated to ease-of-living.
Key highlights in the coming week: US Durable Goods, Michigan Conf., Services PMI, PCE, and CPI in Euro area and Japan. Broken down by day: Monday - US Services PMI, New Home Sales (Consensus 4.7%); Singapore CPI; Tuesday - US Durable Goods (consensus 7.5%) and Consumer Confidence; Wednesday - Germany GfK Consumer Confidence; Thursday - US GDP 2Q (2nd est., expect 3.70%, below consensus) and Personal Consumption; Euro area Confidence; CPI in Germany and Spain; Friday - US Michigan Conf. (consensus 80.1), PCE (consensus 0.10%), Chicago PMI; Core CPI in Euro area and Japan (consensus 2.30%). Additionally, with a long weekend in the US coming up, expect volumes into the close of the week to slump below even recent near-record lows observed recently as the CYNKing of the S&P 500 goes into overdrive.
Amid his corruption indictments, Texas Governor Rick Perry is making more headlines today. During a CNN interview, Perry exclaimed "it's possible ISIS may have crossed into The United States from Mexico." Speaking earlier at The Heritage Foundation, Perry blasted, "they need to be eliminated, and they need to be eliminated now."
Mainstream, Hawkish Group Blames the West for the Mess In Ukraine
The main event of the week will be Yellen's long awaited speech at the Jackson Hole 3-day symposium taking place August 21-23. The theme of this year's symposium is entitled "Re-Evaluating Labour Market Dynamics" and Yellen is expected to deliver her keynote address on Friday morning US time. Consensus is that she will likely highlight that the alternative measures of labour market slack in evaluating the ongoing significant under-utilisation of labour resources (eg, duration of employment, quit rate in JOLTS data) have yet to normalise relative to 2002-2007 levels. Any sound bite that touches on the debate of cyclical versus structural drivers of labour force participation will also be closely followed. Unlike some of the previous Jackson Hole symposiums, this is probably not one that will serve as a precursor of any monetary policy changes but the tone of Yellen's speech may still have a market impact and set the mood for busier times ahead in September.
Overview of the technical conditions of the major markets.