Some folks have been spying again... but we are sure President Obama "was not aware" of any of it...
From abysmal PMI data to slumping freight volumes to collapsing Class 8 truck orders, the writing is on the wall: the US is headed for a recession. And while we would argue that if it weren't for goalseeked data, the numbers would already show that the entire economy is contracting, at least four states are already in an official downturn.
Many commentators have mentioned that Hillary Clinton left behind no major achievement as the U.S. Secretary of State; but, actually, she did. Unfortunately, all of her major achievements were bad, and some were catastrophic. Six countries were especially involved: Honduras, Haiti, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, and Ukraine. The harm she did to each country was not in the interest of the American people, and it was disastrous for the residents there. Hillary Clinton at every campaign debate says “I have a better track-record,” and that she’s “a progressive who gets things done.” Here’s what she has actually done when she was Secretary of State...
Looking at today's DOE breakdown, while PADD 2 saw inventories rise by 2.25 million, the Midwest storage hub at Cushing was up only 36,000 - a divergence which confirms that Cushing is now routinely denying storage requests.
Since the January FOMC statement, Janet has spoken twice and what seems like every Fed speaker has hit the headlines to explain their decisions (only to confuse the market more) leaving bonds and gold outperforming amid their clear confusion. The Minutes appear to confirm that confusion:
- *FOMC MEMBERS AGREED DATA TOO UNCLEAR TO GAUGE RISKS TO OUTLOOK (confused)
- *FED OFFICIALS CONTINUED TO EXPECT GRADUAL POLICY TIGHTENING (hawkish)
- *MANY FED OFFICIALS AT JAN. FOMC SAW INCREASED DOWNSIDE RISKS (dovish)
So The Fed was unanimous in its decision to leave rates unchanged, downgraded the economic outlook, and was fearful of the global financial volatility - which in the last 3 days has all been solved.
“I hope he drops an F-bomb"...
Already reeling from low prices, officials with Mexico’s state-run Pemex are also fighting an ever intensifying battle against pipeline theft as organized crime tries to gain a foothold in the country’s newly reformed energy sector.
- Oil eases off highs after output freeze agreement (Reuters)
- Saudis and Russia agree to oil output freeze, Iran still an obstacle (Reuters)
- China Loses Control of the Economic Story Line (WSJ)
- Obama starts work to pick Supreme Court justice amid political 'bluster' (Reuters)
- The Never-Ending Story: Europe’s Banks Face a Frightening Future (BBG)
- Apollo Global to buy security services company ADT for $7 billion (Reuters)
In milestone, two entrepreneurs are set to open a tractor factory in Cuba. The move will mark the first time a US factory has been located on Cuban soil since the revolution.
Debt is a temporary stop gap measure for politicians to kick the problem to a new generation; and worse still, all the new debt has done very little to rescue three decades of falling wages. Simply put, we are bumping up against the limits of both fiscal and monetary policy... and financial markets are just now realizing this.
"The world has fundamentally shifted over the last decade, especially since we’ve emerged from the Great Recession... But the professional class has been very slow to understand what is going on, not just quantitatively but qualitatively in a new generational configuration that I call the Fourth Turning. They don’t accept the new normal. They keep insisting, just two or three years out there on the horizon, that the old normal will return – in GDP growth, in housing starts, in global trade. But it doesn’t return."
- Theme 1: US economy appears insulated from global weakness
- Theme 2: Strong domestic consumer demand persists
- Theme 3: Managements remain devoted to share repurchases
- Theme 4: Outlook for China is positive despite recent turmoil
Watch as Carrier workers in Indiana discover who's really "peddling fiction"...
Last month, Bernie Sanders as well as dozens of other lawmakers on Capitol Hill were outraged to learn that the Obama administration was set to start deporting hundreds of Central Americans who came to the US fleeing violence. Donald Trump applauded the move. A month later we learn that the deportations have sharply reduced the number of illegal immigrants coming into the country.
Central Banks Are the PROBLEM, Not the Solution ... the DISEASE, Not the Cure