Mexico

The fact is that the US has been on a slippery slope for decades, and it's about to go over a cliff. However, our standard of living, while declining, is still very high, both relatively and absolutely. But an American can enjoy a much higher standard of living abroad. On the other hand, if I were some poor guy in a poverty-wracked country with few opportunities, I'd want to go where the action is, where the money is, now. Today, that means trying to get into the United States. The US is headed the wrong direction, but it's still a land of opportunity and a whole lot better than some flea-bitten village in Niger...This is one of the advantages of studying history, because it shows you that things like this rarely happen overnight. They are usually the result of trends that build over years and years, sometimes over generations. In the case of the US, I think the trend has been downhill, in many ways, for many years. Pick a time. You could make an argument, from a moral point of view, that things started heading downhill at the time of the Spanish-American War. That was when a previously peaceful and open country first started conquering overseas lands and staking colonies. America was still in the ascent towards its peak economically, but the seeds of its own demise were already sewn, and a libertarian watching the scene might have concluded that it was time to get out of Dodge –

2011 was an abysmal year for the global insurance industry, which had to cover yet another enormous increase in damages from natural disasters. Unknown to most casual observers is the fact that during the past few decades the frequency of weather-related disasters (floods, fires, storms) has been growing at a much faster pace than geological disasters (such as earthquakes). This spread between the two types of insurable losses has moved so strongly that it prompted Munich Re to note in a late 2010 letter that weather-related disasters due to wind have doubled and flooding events have tripled in frequency since 1980. The world now has to contend with a much higher degree of risk from weather and climate volatility, and this has broad-reaching implications. And critically, it has a particular impact on food.

One of the topics touched upon by Eric deCarbonnel in the earlier article discussing the potential, if not necessarily probable absent further validation, implications of the Exchange Stabilization Fund, is that of the nature of AIDS. Which got us thinking. While we won't necessarily go into the implications proposed by none other than Chuck Palahniuk in his book Rant (word search Kissinger, especially what Neddy Nelson has to say on the topic), it made us recall that particular National Security Study Memorandum, aka NSSM 200, better known as "The Kissinger Report" authored on December 10, 1974 and immediately classified under Executive Order 11652 until 1989, titled simply, "Implications of Worldwide Population Growth For U.S. Security and Overseas Interests." What did the report say and why is it relevant, especially in our day and age when so many believe that all important substance - black gold - may have peaked? Well, since it has 123 pages full of very, very curious information as pertains to how US foreign policy is truly styled, we will leave it up to our readers to make their own conclusions, but here are some preliminary observations to help them on their way...

Continuing our tradition of listing what according to Zero Hedge readers were the key news events of the year for the third year in a row (2009 and 2010 can be found here and here), we present, as is now customary, the most popular posts of the year as determined by the number of page views, or said otherwise - by the readers themselves. So without further ado, here are this year's top 20.

Black Swan Clusterflock +1. As if earthquakes, tsunamis, nuclear meltdowns and war was not enough, the Examiner now discloses that a replay of the BP oil spill could be in the making, sending WTI to the (super)moon, the economy collapsing, and Ben Bernanke starting the printer in advance of QE 666. To wit: "The U.S. Coast Guard is currently investigating reports of a potentially
massive oil sheen about 20 miles away from the site of the Deepwater
Horizon oil rig explosion last April." There are no definitive reports yet, but we should now for sure within hours, if the Keppel FELS built TLP is indeed the culprit: "According to Paul Barnard, operations controller for the USCG in
Louisiana, a helicopter crew has been dispatched to the site of the
Matterhorn SeaStar oil rig, owned by W&T Offshore, Inc." And if preliminary reports are correct, BP will have been the appetizer: "Multiple reports have come in of a sheen nearly 100 miles long and 10 miles wide originating near the site." If confirmed, Obama can kiss tomorrow's Rio golf outing goodbye.

Just out - BP is being sued by the US government. The suit is originating in a New Orleans court. Update: other firms sued include Transocean, Anadarko, Moex, and BP insurer Lloyd's. From Reuters: US seeks unspecified damages under clean water act, oil pollution act. US asks judge to hold companies liable without limits. Halliburton, Cameron International not included in Obama administration complaint

If anyone needs any confirmation that investors are now fully aware repayments at maturity of sovereign debt issues will likely not occur, ever, is today's announcement that Mexico is in the market with a $500 million century issue (100 year maturity). Lead underwriters on this brilliant piece of paper are Deutsche Bank and Goldman. We are willing to wager that it will also be these two firms' restructuring groups which will handle the ensuing insolvency of the southern neighbor. Which, however, will not occur before the US brings back that other brilliant invention- the consol (which was so brilliant, one wonders if Goldman did not exist back in the 18th century).

Swell ...

It was only a matter of time before "inclement weather" tested the BP falling knifers. Provisionally titled Tropical Storm Alex (currently disturbance 93L), the first tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is now expected to enter the GoM area as soon as next week, causing unpredictable and possibly irreparable harm to BP's clean up efforts. And this is just the beginning: as Bloomberg reminds: "Forecasters are predicting this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, may be among the most active on record...Three storms, two of them hurricane-level, may pass through the oil spill area, while three more may come close enough to affect cleanup operations and other rig activity, AccuWeather Inc. chief hurricane forecaster Joe Bastardi said." We are confident all those who have written exhaustive multi-page investment theses vouching their certainty that BP is at least a doublebagger have factored in such completely unpredictable factors as 100+ mph winds and currents that bring BP's tarballs all the way up to Virginia along the eastern seaboard.

Invest92L is the name of the latest headache for all those focusing on the Gulf oil spill effort: as is well-known, should a hurricane strike ground zero, or get in proximity to it, the strengthened currents will likely disperse the oil aggregation sufficiently to where it will impact a materially larger swath of land and make landfall potentially all the way across the entire eastern seaboard. We take a look at Jeff Masters blog at Wunderground.com on predictions of whether Invest 92 is a serious danger to the BP clean up effort.

On the wires. Everyone kinda forgot that the Gulf Of Mexico is also bordered by... Mexico.

Will 2010 be the year of sovereign defaults ... or can the boys duct tape the system together until 2011?

If you needed a reason to buy today's deja vu listless and volumeless tape, here it is. Mexico cut by S&P from BBB+/A-2 to BBB/A-3. Outlook is "stable"... absent a hyperinflationary collapse. Expect a rebuttal from Goldman Sachs, which has been axed the wrong way for quite a while.

As we pointed out previously, a Fitch downgrade of Mexico was only a matter of days (S&P - not so much, as the agency is back to its operational sweet spot in the middle of a Fed-enforced bubble). Sure enough, earlier today Fitch dropped Mexico's rating to BBB, citing “The global economic and financial crisis and falling oil
production have accentuated weaknesses in the sovereign’s fiscal
profile. These weaknesses
limit Mexico’s fiscal maneuverability in the face of future oil
income shocks." Yet the hilarious response to this somewhat prudent action came out of scandal-ridden Goldman Sachs, which openly derided Fitch for its action: "We differ from Fitch, because while far from ideal, the 2010 revenue
budget delivered a non-trivial fiscal adjustment amounting to just
under 2.0% of GDP. To be sure, the tax hikes and expenditure cuts could
have been deeper and structurally stronger. However, given the
magnitude of the contraction experienced by Mexico in 2009, few to no
countries adjusted fiscally this year. On the contrary." Subsequent to his report, attached in its entirety, Goldman analyst Paulo Leme continued the Chuck Norris routine: "Everyone else in the
region is experiencing deterioration in the fiscal accounts.
Mexico adjusted. Were the efforts Nobel Prize-winning public
finance? No. But they did a lot."

So there you have it: not only is the NY Fed openly encouraging rating shopping for TALF, but now rating agencies have to be concerned about angering a sleeping octopus, which as we all know, has every right to be morally indignant when others dare to promote an objective reality that may or may not align with Goldman's prop trading interests.