It wasn't just China's long overdue crash last night. In addition to the Shanghai Composite suffering its biggest plunge since August 2009, there has been a sharp slide in the USDJPY which has broken its uptrend to +∞ (and hyperinflation), and around the time Chinese gamblers were panicking, the FX pair tumbled under 120, although since then the 120 tractor beam has been activated. Elsewhere, the Athens stock exchange is also crashing by over 10% this morning on the heels of news that the Greek government has accelerated the process to elect the next president and possibly, a rerun of the drama from the summer of 2012 when the Eurozone was hanging by a thread when Tsipras almost won the presidential vote and killed the world's most artificial and insolvent monetary union. And finally, the crude plunge appears to have finally caught up with ground zero, with ADX General Index in Abu Dhabi plunging 3.5%, also poised for the biggest drop since 2009. In fact the only thing that isn't crashing (at least not this moment), is Brent, which did drop to new 5 year lows earlier under $66, but has since staged a feeble rebound.
The slump in oil prices has BP "concentrating minds on making the organisation more efficient" which means, as The FT translates, the 'unequivocally good news' of lower oil prices is accelerating plans for the oil giant to reduce its headcount. The Sunday Times reports, BP is to ax middle managers and freeze projects as Brian Gilvary, the finance director, said: "what you’ll see with this simplification plan is that headcounts are starting to come down across all of our activities in upstream, downstream and in the corporate centres — essentially the layers above operations." Gilvary added that the company would slash the oil price assumption used to set its day-to-day budget.
In a healthy, moral and civilized society defined by the rule of law, police can play an important role. They should be people who come from the communities they promise to “protect and serve.” They should view themselves as a part of these communities, not as something separate and distinct. Police should see their jobs as having a great degree of risk, and must be willing to accept that risk. This means not pretending to be a solider at war, not choosing the most violent solution to every problem, and not viewing the citizenry as milk cows ready and willing to be drained of their assets via civil forfeiture.
Unfortunately, this isn’t the state of the police in America in 2014, and it’s quickly becoming obvious to everyone.
"The nation was leery of a national bank with seemingly endless power to manipulate the money supply and the Second National Bank of the United States was attacked by both the expansionists and the sound money opponents. It was during this period that future President Andrew Jackson shaped his anti-Bank views in Tennessee while his future hard-money arm in the Senate, Thomas Hart Benton (Old Bullion), shaped his views in Missouri, two of the hardest-hit states. The debate over central banking, and the concern over deflation and inflation, continue two hundred years later."
The world economy is slowing down and the authorities are fretting.
- Thanks Fed: Meet the high schooler who made $300K trading penny stocks under his desk (Verge)
- Protesters block NY streets after officer cleared in chokehold death (Reuters)
- U.S. Plans Probe of New York Police Chokehold Death (BBG)
- Sharpton Leads Civil-Rights Meeting on Chokehold Decision (BBG)
- Staten Island on Edge Over Grand Jury Decision In Death of Eric Garner (WSJ)
- Draghi Tests Speed Limit as ECB Awaits Stimulus Evidence (BBG)
- European Stocks Approach Seven-Year High Before Draghi Statement (BBG)
- Britain targets multinationals that try to dodge taxes (Reuters)
- Oil Trains Hide in Plain Sight (WSJ)
The ink on Barack Obama's Chuck Hagel termination letter hasn't dried yet but already the US president's new, and seemingly far more hawkish advisors, are having their warmongering presence felt. Case in point: the Eastern European theater of (Cold) war, where Military.com reports that the new Army commander in Europe plans to bolster the U.S. armored presence in Poland and the Baltic states and keep rotations of U.S. troops there through next year and possibly beyond to counter Russia. Lt. Gen. Frederick "Ben" Hodges, who replaced Lt. Gen. Donald M. Campbell earlier this month as commander of U.S. Army Europe, said the Army was looking to add about 100 Abrams tanks and Bradley Fighting Vehicles to the forces in Eastern Europe.
Houston, we have a problem-er. With a third of S&P 500 capital expenditure due from the imploding energy sector (and with over 20% of the high-yield market dominated by these names), paying attention to any inflection point in the US oil-producers is critical as they have been gung-ho "unequivocally good" expanders even as oil prices began to fall. So, when Reuters reports a drop of almost 40 percent in new well permits issued across the United States in November, even The Fed's Stan Fischer might start to question his lower oil prices are "a phenomenon that’s making everybody better off," may warrant a rethink. New permits, which indicate what drilling rigs will be doing 60-90 days in the future, showed steep declines for the first time this year across the top three U.S. onshore fields: the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford in Texas and North Dakota's Bakken shale.
Following last week's holiday-shortened week, which was supposed to be quiet and peaceful and was anything but thanks to OPEC's shocking announcement and a historic plunge in crude prices, we have yet another busy week of macroeconomic reports to look forward to.
The oil industry is no longer what it once was, it’s not even a normal industry anymore. Oil companies sell assets and borrow heavily, then buy back their own stock and pay out big dividends. What kind of business model is that? Well, not the kind that can survive a 40% cut in revenue for long. Cheap oil a boon for the economy? You might want to give that some thought.
The precipitous decline in the price of oil is perhaps one of the most bearish macro developments this year. We believe we are entering a “new oil normal,” where oil prices stay lower for longer. While we highlighted the risk of a near-term decline in the oil price in our July newsletter, we failed to adjust our portfolio sufficiently to reflect such a scenario. This month we identify the major implications of our revised energy thesis. The reason oil prices started sliding in June can be explained by record growth in US production, sputtering demand from Europe and China, and an unwind of the Middle East geopolitical risk premium. The world oil market, which consumes 92 million barrels a day, currently has one million barrels more than it needs.... Large energy companies are sitting on a great deal of cash which cushions the blow from a weak pricing environment in the short-term. It is still important to keep in mind, however, that most big oil projects have been planned around the notion that oil would stay above $100, which no longer seems likely.
A look at the global capital markets as if analysis matters.
The final days of US empire are fast approaching. Perhaps its end will pass slowly and gradually, or perhaps the event will unfold rapidly and catastrophically. Maybe chaos will break loose, or maybe its demise will be organized well and proceed smoothly. This nobody knows, but the end of empire is coming as surely as day follows night and sun follows rain. Overexpansion, overreach and over-indebtedness will take their toll—as all past empires have discovered.
Recently we posted the following article commenting on the impact of USD appreciation and dollar circulation among oil exporters, as well as how the collapsing price of oil is set to reverberate across the entire oil-exporting world, where sticky high oil prices were a key reason for social stability. Following today's shocking OPEC announcement and the epic collapse in crude prices, it is time to repost it now that everyone is desperate to become a bear market oil expert, if only on Twitter...
- National Guard, police curb Ferguson unrest as protests swell across U.S. (Reuters)
- Ferguson Reaction Across U.S. Shows Complex Racial Split (BBG)
- Democratic senator Schumer: Democrats Screwed Up By Passing Obamacare In 2010 (TPM)
- Veto threat derails Reid tax deal (Hill)
- Justice Department Investigating Possible HSBC Leak to Hedge Fund (WSJ)
- Merkel hits diplomatic dead-end with Putin (Reuters), and yet...
- Merkel Said to Reject Ukraine NATO Bid as Rousing Tension (BBG)
- HSBC, Goldman Rigged Metals’ Prices for Years, Suit Says (BBG)