Michael Panzner

When trying to get a handle on investor sentiment, the benchmark of choice for many market-watchers is the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index, or VIX. However, this popular “fear gauge” only offers a snapshot of implied volatility, or relative pricing levels, for equity index options, which might not necessarily tell us all we need to know about the mood on The Street.

In “The Biggest Myth About the Fed,” David Beckworth, an assistant professor of economics at Western Kentucky University, suggests that the pessimists are wrong to be concerned about what Mr. Bernanke and Co. are up to. The notion that current benign market conditions are a reason for optimism sums up just how out of touch with reality most academic economists (and other alleged experts, including journalists-cum-forecasters who parrot this nonsense) are.

By this sort of logic:

• Mid-2005 was the right time to be optimistic on housing
• January-2007 was the right time to be optimistic on the banking sector
• The spring of 2007 was the right time to be optimistic on credit markets
• The fall of 2007 was the right time to be optimistic on global equity markets
• Mid-2008 was the right time to be optimistic on commodities
• This past September was the right time to be optimistic on technology stocks

Of course, we know how those all worked out (hint: not well).

While everyone and their pet rabbit 'Dave' in the media seems to 'believe', there’s plenty of debate about—and money riding on—the question of whether we are in the midst of a sustainable recovery in the housing market. Nobody knows for sure, of course, but there are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic. While it is easy to focus on the traditional indicators of supply and demand and start believing that the long-awaited recovery in the property market has arrived at last, the fact is that much has changed in the wake of the events of the past decade, a development that is likely to weigh on prices for many years to come.

Libya is in the same predicament, as is Sudan, Algeria, Nigeria, Angola... What happens when people are starving while they see their leaders living lives of luxury? They get pissed! They demand CHANGE.

I've got a bad feeling that the Great Intervention Rally of 2009 - 2011 is about to hit an iceberg. January 2011 is eerily reminiscent of January 2000. Ignoring warning signs of being overheated and overloved, the stock market rose month after month, defying doubters. With 12,000 within one good day's run, the Dow reached 11,908 in the week of January 10, 2000, and then rolled over. The next week it sprinted again for 12,000, hitting 11,834, but alas, the mighty advance was over. The S&P 500 topped out a few months later and then started down a relentless three-year slide. I sense a dislocation coming in global markets.

• Irish parliament to vote on EU/IMF bailout (Reuters)
• China Consumers Signal Deepest Inflation Concern Since 1999 in PBOC Survey (Bloomberg)
• Japan Confidence Deteriorates for First Time Since Crisis (Bloomberg)
• Japan Cuts Corporation Tax in Growth Bid (FT)
• U.S. at Risk of Rare Earths Supply Disruption (Reuters)
• US SEC's ABS Quandary Still Pending Business (Market News)
• George Soros Op-Ed: Europe should rescue banks before states (FT)
• The countless exemptions, credits and deductions cost the government more than $1 trillion annually in foregone revenue. It's time for an overhaul. (LA Times)
• Germany Stiffens Opposition to Bigger Bailout in ECB Face-Off (Bloomberg)

Based on data going back 90 years, whenever the 12-month rate of change (ROC) in the Dow Jones Industrials Average has exceeded 40 percent, it has generally signaled trouble ahead. In three cases, a 12-month ROC above that level has only marked a short-term pause, after which the market traded higher. But on 11 other occasions, similarly rapid advances have been followed by notable corrections, including the collapses that followed the 1929 and dot-com era peaks, as well as the 1987 crash. Given those odds, increasingly exuberant bulls might want to have a rethink.

"While much of the focus was on the overall number, the breakdown by category was less reassuring. Those areas of the economy that would naturally be associated with a sustainable rebound in activity, including manufacturing, trade, transportation and utilities, and construction, are still hemorrhaging jobs. Moreover, recent developments suggest that two categories which did see respectable gains, education and health care, face major headwinds in the period ahead. With municipal budgets under growing strain, school budgets -- and education-related hiring -- have nowhere to go but down. And with all eyes now focused on the rising cost of health care, the pressure to reign in spending will only increase." - Michael Panzner

• Jobless claims pick up again, hit 584,000 (Bloomberg)
• Pettis: Brace for a decade of lower Chinese growth (FT)
• Must read: Wall Street analysts keep telling big earnings lie (Bloomberg)
• Goldman Sachs hatred might cost you your bonus (Bloomberg)
• NYSE Euronext swings to loss (WSJ)

Titanium dioxide maker Tronox, which filed for bankruptcy a mere 5 months ago, has decided to default yet again (this time in the confines of bankruptcy court), this time on its $125 million DIP which was arranged by Credit Suisse. The reason for the default is Tronox' inability to file audited 2008 financial statements on time. A recent filing explains the reason for the default:

Titanium dioxide maker Tronox, which filed for bankruptcy a mere 5 months ago, has decided to default yet again (this time in the confines of bankruptcy court), this time on its $125 million DIP which was arranged by Credit Suisse. The reason for the default is Tronox' inability to file audited 2008 financial statements on time. A recent filing explains the reason for the default:

Titanium dioxide maker Tronox, which filed for bankruptcy a mere 5 months ago, has decided to default yet again (this time in the confines of bankruptcy court), this time on its $125 million DIP which was arranged by Credit Suisse. The reason for the default is Tronox' inability to file audited 2008 financial statements on time. A recent filing explains the reason for the default: