The one stop summary of all the key positive and negative news in the week that was.
Several important economic updates due today, among which CPI, Empire Index, Industrial Production and UMichigan consumer confidence. There is a small QE Lite Pomo today closing at 11 am. The Stress Tests are released at noon. Expect more European headlines to whip the EURUSD, and thus ES, around.
All you need to know by www.thetrader.se
China activity data: Following the June CPI print, which saw inflation rise to 6.4% yoy, in line with our above-consensus forecast, we will be looking for above-consensus activity readings for Q2 GDP and June industrial production. Eurogroup meeting and bank stress tests: This will be an important policy week for Europe. On Friday, the IMF approved its disbursement to Greece under the old EU/IMF program of EUR110 bn agreed in 2010. Discussions at the Eurogroup meeting will center on the financing of a new program, which is supposed to close the financing gap for Greece for 2012 and 2013. The role of private sector involvement remains a key issue. The week also brings a bond auction for Italy on Thursday, for an estimated EUR7 bn. The week ends with the publication of the EU-wide bank stress tests on Friday. Summary results will be published at 6 pm CEST, with bank-by-bank results following thereafter. Bernanke testimony: In his semiannual monetary policy testimony, Fed Chairman Bernanke is likely to repeat the basic message from his recent press conference—namely that labor market performance has been disappointing but that inflation remains too high to combat the weakness with additional monetary easing.
"General Motors Co. stocked Jim Ellis Chevrolet in Atlanta with plenty of Silverado full-size pickups in early 2011, part of a wager on a strong economic recovery. The strategy is backfiring. “We thought that this year would bring back the kind of economic activity that would translate into us selling more trucks,” Mark Frost, the dealership’s general manager, said in a phone interview. “It’s not happening.” Supply of Silverado has ballooned to 6 1/2 months worth at the dealership, a figure Frost, 52, calls “a little scary.” The Detroit-based automaker, 33 percent owned by the U.S. after its 2009 bankruptcy, has 280,000 Silverado and GMC Sierra pickups on dealers’ lots around the country. If sales continue at June’s rate, that would be enough to last until November." Thus begins a story just published by Business Week covering a topic that Zero Hedge has been pounding the table on since last December, and which just hit an all time record for fresh start Government Motors a few days ago - namely the firm's propensity to dump as much inventory as possible on dealer floors. Granted, many have been quick to mock, ridicule and ignore our glaringly obvious findings (especially since these come at a time when the light vehicle sales SAAR is back to a 10 month low, and likely to plunge once the long overdue inventory liquidation finally takes place), although now that the topic of General Motors' "strategy" of overfilling dealer inventory is front page news, it finally may get the overdue respect it deserves, especially since as Jefferies' Peter Nesvold cautions, this is nothing more than new GM reverting to the habits of the old one (the one that filed and needed taxpayer bailouts for a few hundred thousand union workers).
Minnesota Joins New Jersey In Insolvency, Shuts Down, Harbinger Of Debt Ceiling Negotiation Outcome?Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/01/2011 07:34 -0500
Two down. 48 to go until Meredith Whitney is proven correct beyond a reasonable doubt. After New Jersey was forced to reach out to JP Morgan for an emergency bridge loan a few days ago, it is Minnesota's turn. From ABC: "Minnesota's government has shut down, ahead of the holiday weekend, for the second time in six years after state leaders failed to find common ground on resolving a $5 billion budget deficit. Thousands of state workers will be laid off, state parks will be shuttered, the issuance of fishing licenses will be halted and the Minneapolis zoo will be closed. Road projects will also grind to a standstill just as people hit the road for the holiday. A midnight deadline passed without an agreement as talks between Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton and top Republicans unraveled over Dayton's proposal to impose taxes on the state's top earners, a move on which top GOP officials have refused to budge...Some programs that will continue unabated include critical services including the State Patrol, prisons, disaster response and federally funded health, welfare and food stamp programs." Granted this is not a first: "Only four other states -- Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Tennessee -- have had shutdowns in the past decade, some lasting mere hours. Minnesota's government partially shut down under then-Gov. Tim Pawlenty in 2005 over a budget fallout." However, if NJ is any indication, as predicted, expect ever more states to bypass the municipal route of funding, and appeal directly to commercial banks. Which will generously provide as much Fed-generated one and zeros...in exchange for 80% LTV collateral of course.
- Strauss-Kahn Case Seen as in Jeopardy (NYT)... yes, the soap opera is back.... although don't expect Lagarde to hand the keys back to DSK - after all the mission has been accomplished. Though president DSK would be a shoo in if cleared of all charges.
- China Salutes 90 Years of Communism (WSJ)... US salutes nearly 100 year of Federal Reserve central planning
- Obama Pushes for a Deficit Deal by July 22 (FT)
- China manufacturing at lowest in 2 years (FT)
- German Banks Agree to Greek Aid Deal (WSJ)
- Ex-Goldman director Gupta SEC Case Postponed Indefinitely (Fin Alternatives)
- Greek, Italian Bonds Lead Peripheral Rebound as Default Concern Ebbs (Bloomberg)
- Republicans boycott trade vote (FT)
- Obama Pushes for a Deficit Deal by July 22 (FT)
Today's ISM manufacturing index will be watched by everyone for signs that America is reverse decoupling again (despite a 70% services-based economy), following the overnight barrage of ugly global PMI data. The median forecast has risen modestly to 52.0 even as regional Fed indices and other June data predicts a sub 50 print. And to baffle everyone with BS, we fully expect that the UMichigan index will come stronger than the median forecast of 72.0, even as the Conference Board consumer confidence index missed earlier this week. Oh yes: there is no POMO today.
Even as everyone is glued to webcasts out of Athens, there will be some secondary data in the US, first of which is the Case-Shiller index, as usual about 3 months delayed, and thus very much irrelevant, and second is the circular loop of an indicator that is the Conference Board (it's up when the market is up, it's up when the market is down but when the respondents are Wall Street CEOs, it's up when stocks plunge but when gas is down a cent, and in fact, it is never down). More importantly, the third to last POMO in QE2 will be completed at 11 am. Lastly, $35 billion in 5 year notes will be "sold" to Primary Dealers.
With industrial production falling, the likelihood of an economic recovery seems farther and farther away for Messrs. Bernanke and Obama. The way I look at the data, the US economy continues its slide into stagnation. This isn't a "double-dip" -- we never did recover from the '08 Crash -- but a consequence of monetary and fiscal stimulus.
On Friday, the BLS released its monthly state employment and unemployment summary. The Bberg chart below summarizes the results. Bottom line: lots of red, a little green and quite a bit unchanged.
Goldman Sachs summarizes the key events in what promises to be a most exciting week: "The Eurogroup Finance Ministers are meeting Sunday night and Monday (June 19-20), while a G7 conference call on Greece is scheduled for Sunday night as well. Germany has already softened its position regarding private sector participation in a second Greek support package. More headlines with respect to the Greece rescue can be expected in the coming days. The upcoming week will also be marked by the EU summit of Heads of State towards the end of the week. Beyond Greece the two key events are the FOMC meeting and press conference, which will be interesting, given the Fed currently faces a challenging deterioration in the growth-inflation trade-off. Finally, cyclical data disappointed last week, further adding evidence of a "soft patch" with the Philly Fed and the U of Michigan consumer confidence reports printing below consensus. Next week, we will find out whether European survey data and US durable goods orders confirm this trend of cyclical deceleration or whether they point to cyclical divergence across the Atlantic."
- Market talk that a new Greek aid package could be worth as much as EUR 150bln against a previous estimate of EUR 120bln
- German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy demonstrated a united front in their approach to tackle the Greek problem
- German chancellor Merkel said she wants involvement of private creditors on a voluntary basis, and wants to work with the ECB on investors’ role in Greece
- French President Sarkozy said that we have found an agreement on the private sector involvement on Greece, in line with the Vienna initiative
Today we get two very circular resonance amplifiers in the form of Consumer Sentiment and the Index of Leading Indicators. When markets go up, these go up, pushing the market higher. When the market goes down, these go down, and push the market lower. In other words, the only relevant thing, correlating at 1.000 and leading the market, will once again be the EURUSD which is the only chart one needs these days, while one can trace the critical fate of Greek bank deposits by looking at the EURCHF.
Fraudclosure | Michigan Attorney General Subpoenas (CRIMINAL) Lender Processing Services, Fidelity National Financial Inc. (FNF) and CT Corporation System in ProbeSubmitted by 4closureFraud on 06/15/2011 13:19 -0500
The subpoenas are part of a criminal investigation into questionable mortgage documentation (Linda Green) filed with Michigan’s Register of Deeds offices. The subpoenas were approved by the state court in Lansing June 13 and require responses by June 30.