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    03/27/2015 - 04:54
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Michigan

AVFMS's picture

19 Nov 2012 – “ Rip And Tear” (L.A. Guns, 1989)





European equities ripping and squeezed after Friday’s dismal close. Credit the same and, as more often than not lately, overdoing the equity move. EGBs rather muted with the Core pretty much where it stood throughout last week – with exception of Friday afternoon. Spain back on the radar. Europe still under US influence. Huge relief. From what and why exactly still needs to be seen. In the meantime: Rip & Tear!

"Rip And Tear" (Bunds 1,35% +3; Spain 5,88% +2; Stoxx 2495 +2,7%; EUR 1,281 +110)

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Euro Gold Record Over 1,400 EUR/oz By Year End – Commerzbank





The yellow metal soared 4.9% in euros in one week from the 11 week low set November 2nd and has since fallen 1.3%.  The rebound from the November dip means prices should recover to reach the all-time euro high set last month, before rising to the point-and-figure target at 1,395 euros, said the bank’s research.  Point and figure charts estimate trends in prices without showing time. Gold may then reach a Fibonacci level of about 1,421, the 61.8% extension of the May-to-October rally, projected from the November low, Commerzbank wrote in its report on November 13th which was picked up by Bloomberg. Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices climb or drop by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. “What we are seeing is a correction lower, nothing more,” Axel Rudolph, a technical analyst at Commerzbank in London, said by e-mail Nov. 16, referring to the drop since November 9th.  Rudolph remains bullish as long as prices hold above the November low at about 1,303 euros.  Technical analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

 
AVFMS's picture

Shuffle Rewind 12-16 Nov " No Direction " (Simply Red, 1985)





While the prior week was marked by some kind of awakening, this week was more about finding a direction. Eventually mostly downwards, but always in jumps, marked by tentative rebounds. Europe mostly lost, so unused not to be the focal point anymore, waiting for US input. If it wasn’t for the Fiscal Cliff, and in absence of further news out of the Periphery, we seem to have

"No Direction" (Bunds 1,32% -2; Spain 5,86% +5; Stoxx 2429% -2,1%; EUR 1,27 -10)

 
AVFMS's picture

16 Nov 2012 – “That's the Way (I Like It) ” (KC and the Sunshine Band, 1975)





Europe mostly boring. Several inconclusive downside tests in European equities. Static bonds, unwilling to tighten further. More US equity weakness, more downside. Way is shown by US equity dump. Periphery? What Periphery? What problem? Credit, EGBs, most commodities just watching. Dismal close.

"That's the Way (I Like It)" (Bunds 1,32% -2; Spain 5,86% -3; Stoxx 2429 -1,2%; EUR 1,27 -90)

 
AVFMS's picture

15 Nov 2012 – “ Are You Gonna Go My Way? ” (Lenny Kravitz, 1993)





The US crashing close yesterday was cushioned in Europe by better than expected (backward-looking) GDP figures in Germany and France. EZ in recession nevertheless. Limited fall-out, albeit lower (equity) levels tested. Periphery okay’ish, then good on better Italian GDP. Spain tag along with limited own dynamics, mainly trailing Risk assessment. EGBs difficult to move lower from here. Watching the US. Someone. Please. Show the way.

"Are You Gonna Go My Way? " (Bunds 1,34% +0; Spain 5,89% -3; Stoxx 2459% -0,6%; EUR 1,279 +50)

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Stop Talking Please!





The slow data (and holiday) week will likely keep eyes focused on the 'fiscal cliff' supplying a stiff headwind to stocks as it only reminds investors of the peril which looms directly in front of them. One suggestion I could offer both sides of this debate to avoid any further damage is just to be quiet.  Stop making stump speeches.  We all know your views.  We all know how stridently you will defend them, but your incessant reminders that you have dug in your heels does no good regardless of the negotiating tactic.  Instead, hold a joint press conference and admit there are ideological differences, but announce that both parties will do their best to hammer out a deal palatable enough for everyone. Alas, this is wishful thinking.  As a result, anytime they open of their mouths, most notably Mr. Obama’s, the words they spew will cause damage to share prices. Unfortunately, the President’s drawing a line in the sand on Friday has guaranteed that a countless number of E-Mini bandits will short the futures in front of his speaking which will erode the conviction among managers trying to put money to work. Ironically, it may take an equity market in free fall that ultimately forces compromise.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: November 12





Another day another sell-off…with equity markets in Europe trending steadily lower after it was reported that the decision on Greek aid will not be taken during the Eurogroup meeting scheduled for November 12. Still, EU official said that there will be no Greek default on November 16th (EUR 4.1bln redemptions) and that this redemption is to be "factored in" decision on disbursement. Separately,  analysts at Fitch rating agency noted that while current Spain’s rating is appropriate, further action would more likely than not be to sub-investment grade. Moody’s also commented on the never-ending sovereign debt crisis today, stating that actions taken by the ECB only buying time for Euro region and that a decision on France will be communicated within a few weeks. As a result, bond and credit spreads widen further today, with SP/GE 10s spread at 450 level, which is of particular importance given that this is the level at which the LCH begins to review bonds for margin requirements. Deterioration in Italian paper was linked to next week’s supply. In turn, EUR/USD and GBP/USD trended lower, with the USD index up 0.12% at last check. Going forward, market participants will get to digest the release of the latest U. Michigan Survey (Nov P), as well as macro forecasts from Philadelphia Fed.

 
AVFMS's picture

09 Nov 2012 – “ No More ” (Duff McKagan’s Loaded, 2009)





Europe had wanted a rebound, tried to hold on, panicked, sold off, triggered stops – and recovered as the US, although not rebounding fast and furious, at least held the line. EGB running a little out of steam, although August levels were traded again in Bunds. Periphery eventually tracking Risk, but with no own dynamic. Need to see how things close tonight. No More.
"No More" (Bunds 1,34% -2; Spain 5,81% -3; Stoxx 2481% +0,1%; EUR 1,271)

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: November 9





Another day another sell-off…with equity markets in Europe trending steadily lower after it was reported that the decision on Greek aid will not be taken during the Eurogroup meeting scheduled for November 12. Still, EU official said that there will be no Greek default on November 16th (EUR 4.1bln redemptions) and that this redemption is to be "factored in" decision on disbursement. Separately, analysts at Fitch rating agency noted that while current Spain’s rating is appropriate, further action would more likely than not be to sub-investment grade. Moody’s also commented on the never-ending sovereign debt crisis today, stating that actions taken by the ECB only buying time for Euro region and that a decision on France will be communicated within a few weeks. As a result, bond and credit spreads widen further today, with SP/GE 10s spread at 450 level, which is of particular importance given that this is the level at which the LCH begins to review bonds for margin requirements. Deterioration in Italian paper was linked to next week’s supply. In turn, EUR/USD and GBP/USD trended lower, with the USD index up 0.12% at last check. Going forward, market participants will get to digest the release of the latest U. Michigan Survey (Nov P), as well as macro forecasts from Philadelphia Fed.

 
AVFMS's picture

08 Nov 2012 – “ Bop 'Til You Drop ” (Rick Springfield, 1984)





Hmmm… Initial rebound after yesterday’s bashing was rather modest, settling on a bit better and awaiting US input. Spain overdid its auction, which looked just good in the sense of being able to say it sold a new bond for size – to its dealers. ECB, happy to have provided the idea of OMT to save the world from simple panic, now going pessimistic (in non-panicky way). It’s just soft out there… It’s the economy, Stupid! And it is weak.
"Bop 'Til You Drop " (Bunds 1,36% -2; Spain 5,84% +16; Stoxx 2479% +0,1%; EUR 1,275)

 
AVFMS's picture

07 Nov 2012 – “ Pinball Wizard ” (The Who, 1969)





Exuberant start (Who knows why?), flat lunch (made more sense…), dismal afternoon (to say the least). EGBs ramped up, as the reality of the last days’ figures kicked in. And suddenly everyone woke up and saw… and bonds were right. Tommy, "See Me, Feel Me".

"Pinball Wizard" (Bunds 1,38% -5; Spain 5,68% +4; Stoxx 2486 -1,8%; EUR 1,276)

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: November 7





  • Obama Wins Re-election With Romney Defeated in Key States (Bloomberg, Reuters)
  • Romney's last, greatest 'turnaround' falls short (Reuters)
  • Control of Congress set to remain split (FT)
  • Republicans to Hold Most Governor Offices Since 2000 (Bloomberg)
  • Economic Unease Looms After Win (WSJ)
  • Storm-lashed New York, New Jersey scramble as weather threatens (Reuters)
  • Democrats Assured of Keeping U.S. Senate Majority (Bloomberg)
  • Greece to vote on austerity, protests intensify (Reuters)
  • France offers businesses €20bn tax break (FT) ... Wait, what?
  • Putin Fires Defense Chief in Rare Move (WSJ)
  • China premier Wen calls for deeper cooperation on disasters (China Daily)
  • China wrestles over democratic reform (FT)
  • Top-Performing Won Threatens to Hurt Korea Export Rebound (Bloomberg)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly Election Night Drinking Games





While some believe tonight is critical to the future of our nation - and well could be - we believe some will need placating as the results roll across the bottom of their screens and are manipulated in an ever-increasing multitude of 10-dimensional holographic charts that we fully expect to work incorrectly at some point. To fulfil that 'need for numbing', we have found three drinking games of varying suspected quantity that we hope will prove useful. From simple and stand-alone, to team-based and punish-your-friends focused, we believe there is a fair-and-balanced approach here for everyone.

 
AVFMS's picture

06 Nov 2012 – “ Elected ” (Mr Bean & Smear Campaign, 1992)





 Markets have found a good excuse to be on hold. Elections. No real US figures and a tendency to ignore European ones. No shoe dropping means upside, a little. Core EGBs rather firm nevertheless, for choice. Periphery, in absence of news, trading back and forth, so better today. EZ Q4 growth looks like stalling with a catch-up of a more lenient summer. More to come.
"Elected " (Bunds 1,43% +1; Spain 5,64% -9; Stoxx 2513 +0.5%; EUR 1,281)

 
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