Michigan

Global Stocks, Oil Continue Streamrolling Shorts On Last Minute Hopes For G-20 Stimulus Announcement

With the conclusion of this weekend's G-20 unknown, and many still expecting a major stimulus, the squeeze will likely continue into the close of trading ahead of the  weekend when nobody will want to be caught short into what may end up being another global coordinated intervention to prop up markets. “With a lot of policy events coming there is a fair chance of more stimulus plans so the markets can squeeze higher,” said Benno Galliker, a trader at Luzerner Kantonalbank AG. "The big reversal shows that there is some expectation building up into those events."

Nationalism And Populism Propel Trump

America is saying, “Goodbye to all that.” For Trump is not only a candidate. He is a messenger from Middle America. And the message he is delivering to the establishment is: We want an end to your policies and we want an end to you. If the elites think they can not only deny Trump the nomination, but turn back this revolution and re-establish themselves in the esteem of the people, they delude themselves. This is hubris of a high order.

Frontrunning: February 22

  • Futures sharply higher as oil extends gains (Reuters)
  • Global Stocks Gain on Rising Commodities Prices, China (WSJ)
  • Pound in freefall as Boris Johnson sparks Brexit fears (Telegraph)
  • Pound Slides Most Since 2009 as Johnson Backs ‘Brexit’ Campaign (BBG)
  • Oil Glut Will Persist Into 2017 as IEA Sees Prices Capped (BBG)
  • Japanese Seeking a Place to Stash Cash Start Snapping Up Safes (WSJ)

South Dakota Is The 'Sleepiest' State In America

Americans are not getting enough sleep, according to a new report from The CDC. More than one-third of adults in the US get less than the 'required' 7 hours sleep per night, leading to greater chance for obesity, high blood pressure and other diseases related to the digestion of food into energy. Interestingly it is the laid-back Hawaiians that get the least sleep, but South Dakota has the highest percentage of those getting seven hours of sleep each night, at 71.6%. Perhaps that is why US productivity is so poor?

Global Stocks Soar On Stimulus Hopes After Miserable Chinese, Japanese Data; Short Squeeze

"The Chinese market didn’t react as bad as we feared and with the weak export data there is some big hope that he central banks will react quite fast," John Plassard, senior equity-sales trader at Mirabaud Securities LLP in Geneva, told Bloomberg. "It’s a mix of hope of intervention from the Asian central bank, short squeeze and also a relief in some energy and banking sectors, the most shorted sectors." And there are your catalysts for today's surge: hope of more central bank intervention and a global short squeeze.

Neil Howe Warns The 'Professional Class' Is Still In Denial Of The Fourth Turning

"The world has fundamentally shifted over the last decade, especially since we’ve emerged from the Great Recession... But the professional class has been very slow to understand what is going on, not just quantitatively but qualitatively in a new generational configuration that I call the Fourth Turning. They don’t accept the new normal. They keep insisting, just two or three years out there on the horizon, that the old normal will return – in GDP growth, in housing starts, in global trade. But it doesn’t return."

Key Events In The Coming Week: Janet Yellen Testifies, China Closed

With China celebrating the Lunar New Year and offline until next weekend, and with the US in the usual post-payrolls macro newsflow lull, the markets will have more than enough time to stew in the latest source of contagion fears, namely Europe, the same Europe which until recently was fixed but is broken all over again.

Futures, Global Stocks Tumble As Europe Bank, Periphery Carnage Unfolds

Everything went from bad to worse once Europe opened, and things started going "bump in the morning" across the European banking sector, where not only has it been more of the same with CDS spreads for major banks - most notably Deutsche Bank - continuing their surge wider, but also EM spreads to Bunds all following, with the Portugal-Germany Yield spread blowing out above 300 bps for the first time since 2014, and other peripheral nations following.

Frontrunning: February 5

  • January Jobs Report Closely Watched for Momentum, Wages (WSJ)
  • Oil prices steady, weak fundamentals weigh after volatile week (Reuters)
  • How Much Global Oil Output Halted Due to Low Prices? Just 0.1% (BBG)
  • Congress Tweet 'Unfortunate,' Lawyer Says as Shkreli Goes Online (BBG)
  • Syrians Flee Aleppo to Escape Damascus Offensive Against Rebels (WSJ)
  • Dollar Set for Biggest Weekly Loss Since 2009 Before Jobs Data (BBG)

Rally Hobbled As Ugly China Reality Replaces Japan NIRP Euphoria; Oil Rebound Fizzles

It didn't take much to fizzle Friday's Japan NIRP-driven euphoria, when first ugly Chinese manufacturing (and service) PMI data reminded the world just what the bull in the China shop is leading to a 1.8% Shanghai drop on the first day of February. Then it was about oil once more when Goldman itself said not to expect any crude production cuts in the near future. Finally throw in some very cautious words by the sellside what Japan's act of NIRP desperation means, and it becomes clear why stocks on both sides of the pond are down, why crude is not far behind, and why gold continues to rise.