• Knave Dave
    05/23/2016 - 18:16
    This past Thursday marked the one-year anniversary of the US stock market’s death when stocks saw their last high. Market bulls have spent a year looking like the walking dead. They’ve...

Michigan

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US Equity Futures Suddenly Fall Off A Cliff As Europe Slides, Oil Tumbles, EM Currencies Turmoil





It was a relatively calm overnight session in which European stocks wobbled modestly, Japan was up, China was down following its weakest fixing since 2011 as the PBOC continues to aggressively devalue since the SDR inclusion (stoking concerns capital outflows are once again surging), EM stocks stocks were weak and the dollar was unchanged ahead of today's retail sales data and next week's Fed meeting, and then suddenly everything snapped.

 
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Key Economic Events For This Week





After a week full of macroeconomic and headline news (and blooper) fireworks, it’s a fairly quiet start to the week today, with the usual post-payrolls lull in the US.

 
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Rahm Emanuel Fires Chicago Police Chief





Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel announced the resignation of Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy, amid growing furor over the administration’s handling of the shooting death of a black teenager by a white officer last year. “Now is the time for fresh ideas and new leadership” the mayor said.

 
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Global Stocks Rise; US Traders Gives Thanks For Higher Equity Futures





While US floor markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday (equity, rates and energy futures are open until 1pm Eastern), Europe and Asia (as well as US equity futures) were busy rebounding overnight on strength in the commodity complex following yesterday's news that China's metals producers have asked for a wholesale government bailout or the "QEmmodity" as we have dubbed it, for the first time since 2009, which together with news that China would soon start arresting "malicious metal sellers" has provided a push for commodity prices across the board.

 
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Global Stocks Rebound As Geopolitical Tensions Subside; Europe Surges On Report Of More ECB Easing





Following yesterday's dramatic geopolitical shock, U.S. equity index futures rise as Russia has not escalated the confrontation with Turkey as some had feared, while Asian shares fall, reversing earlier gains. European stocks are rallying and the euro is falling on the back of a Reuters report that the ECB is mulling new measures to prop up lending, although it’s not clear at this point what the real impact from these measures would be.

 
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Chicago Mayor Emanuel Urges "Remain Peaceful" As Protests Begin After Video Shows Cop Killing Black Teen





...this video "could tear Chicago apart," which is why Mayor Emanuel has already urged Chicagoans, "it is fine to be passionate, but it is essential to remain peaceful."

 
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Key Economic Events In The Holiday-Shortened Week





It may be a holiday shortened week in the US with Thanksgiving and Black Friday sales on deck (some of which may be starting as soon as Wednesday) but there is a lot of macro data to digest in the next few days.

 
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Chicago's John Hancock Building Fire Is Out, Police Report 1 Injured





A fire burning in a residence on the 50th floor of the John Hancock Center in Chicago has been put out according to the city’s fire department.

The infamous John Hancock building in Chicago is on fire. CNN reports, and the following tweets show, flames visible halfway up and enormous plumes of smoke amid the freezing Illinois air. The fire is in the northeast corner of what appears to be the 50th floor of the building. The Chicago Tribune reports at least six ambulances were called to the scene. Authorities have shut down Michigan Avenue, which will be holding the Magnificent Mile Festival of Lights Parade Saturday evening.

 
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The Fed Has Made A "Policy Mistake" And The Inevtiable Result Will Be A Recession, BNP Warns





"The reason for our recession concern is not so much because of what the Fed is about to do – likely embark on a slow hiking cycle beginning in December – but because it did not start the tightening much sooner."

 
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Frontrunning: November 19





  • Soothing Fed sounds send shares, emerging markets higher (Reuters)
  • Belgian Police Conduct Raids in Connection With Paris Attacks (WSJ)
  • The Paris Attacks Can’t Lead to a Closed Europe (BBG)
  • Alleged Mastermind of Paris Attacks Was ‘Emir of War’ (WSJ)
  • U.S. Eyes Russia-Iran Split in Bid to End Syria Conflict (WSJ)
  • Despite tensions, Asia-Pacific nations close ranks against terrorism (Reuters)
 
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Refugee Blowback: More Than Half Of America's Governors Oppose Entry Of Syrians





First it was Texas. Then five other states - Louisiana, Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, and Michigan - followed in refusing to admit any Syrian refugees. It has since became an avalanche, and at last check, at least 27 states - represented by more than half the nation's governors - say they oppose letting Syrian refugees into their states.

 
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Obama Says 10,000 "Carefully Vetted" Syrian Refugees Still Headed To The US





The United States still plans to try to admit 10,000 Syrian refugees into the country in the coming year, the State Department said on Monday as the weekend attacks in Paris renewed scrutiny on Syrian migrants. But not just anyone: according to the US State Department, the US will only accept "carefully vetted" Syrian refugees...

 
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Texas, Five Other States Refuse To Accept Syrian Refugees





"Given the tragic attacks in Paris and the threats we have already seen, Texas cannot participate in any program that will result in Syrian refugees - any one of whom could be connected to terrorism - being resettled in Texas,"

 
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Futures Extend Slide; Europe Has Biggest Weekly Drop In 2 Months; Commodities At 16 Year Lows





For once, the overnight session was not dominated by weak Chinese economic data (which probably explains why the Shanghai Composite dropped for the second day in a row, declining 1.4%, and ending an impressive run since the beginning of November) and instead Europe took the spotlight with its own poor data in the form of Q3 GDP which printed below expectations at 0.3% Q/Q, down also from the 0.4% increase in Q2, with several key economies rolling over including Germany, Italy, and Spain while Europe's poster child of "successful austerity" saw Q3 GDP stagnate, far worse than the 0.5% growth consensus expected.

 
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With First Ever Criminal "Spoofer" Conviction, HFTs Issue Warning: "Outsmart Us, And You Go To Jail"





the case really boiled down to just one thing: not whether it is legal to spoof, which it is and yet massive, well-connected HFT firms get away with it every single day, but whether it is legal to take advantage of HFT algos programmed to do just one thing - frontrun orders, and activity which leads to massive losses for the algos and the Citadels behind them, when the spoofer realizes just how dumb his counterparty truly is. The verdict was clear: nobody is allowed to outspoof the spoofers.

 
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