Michigan

Futures Wipe Out Most Overnight Losses Following Dramatic Rebound In Crude

Following yesterday's OPEC "production freeze" meeting in Doha which ended in total failure, where in a seemingly last minute change of heart Saudi Arabia and specifically its deputy crown prince bin Salman revised the terms of the agreement demanding Iran participate in the freeze after all knowing well it won't, oil crashed and with it so did the strategy of jawboning for the past 2 months had been exposed for what it was: a desperate attempt to keep oil prices stable and "crush shorts" while global demand slowly picked up.  And whether it is central banks, or chronic BTFDers, just 12 hours after oil opened for trading with a loud crash, the commodity has nearly wiped out all losses, and both brent and WTI were down barely 2%, leading to both European stocks and US equity futures virtually unchanged on the session. 

Futures Fade As Chinese "Good News Is Bad News" For Fed, Oil Drops As Doha Concerns Emerge

Good news is still bad news after all. After last night's China 6.7% GDP print which while the lowest since Q1 2009, was in line with expectations, coupled with beats in IP, Fixed Asset Investment and Retail Sales (on the back of $1 trillion in total financing in Q1)  the sentiment this morning is that China has turned the corner (if only for the time being). And that's the problem, because while China was a good excuse for the Fed to interrupt its rate hike cycle as the biggest "global" threat, that is no longer the case if China has indeed resumed growing. As such Yellen no longer has a ready excuse to delay. This is precisely why futures are lower as of this moment, because suddenly the "scapegoat" narrative has evaporated.

Key Economic Events In The Coming Week

While the market is still enjoying the post-NFP weekly data lull, economic data starts to pick up again in the coming days, alongside the start of the reporting season. Below are this week's key events.

Year Of The Outsider: Why Bernie Sanders' Democratic Rebellion Is So Significant

2016 was supposed to have been the year of Jeb Bush versus Hillary Clinton: the year when the established Bush dynasty confronted the upstart rival Clinton Dynasty. But the year of the insider has turned into the year of the outsider. On both sides, voters have unexpectedly given vent to thirty years of accumulated anger with neoliberalism which has downsized their incomes and hopes. Though the Republican rebellion has been more clear-cut in its dismissal of insider candidates, it is Bernie Sanders’ Democratic rebellion that is of potentially far greater historic significance.

Global Stocks Rise, Europe Rebounds As Oil Halts Decline

In a quiet start to the week following last week's surprisingly strong rebound which followed a stronger than expected jobs report (perhaps to demonstrate that good news is once again good news), Japan stocks continued to sink as the USDJPY dropped to fresh lows, while commodities declined for a fifth day as the supply glut from crude to copper weighed on prices, dragging down commodity currencies. European equities rose, rebounding from a one-month low.

Japan Stocks Plunge; Europe, U.S. Futures, Oil Lower Ahead Of Payrolls

For Japan, the post "Shanghai Summit" world is turning ugly, fast, because as a result of the sliding dollar, a key demand of China which has been delighted by the recent dovish words and actions of Janet Yellen, both Japan's and Europe's stock markets have been sacrificed at the whims of their suddenly soaring currencies. Which is why when Japanese stocks tumbled the most in 7 weeks, sinking 3.5%, to a one month low of 16,164 (after the Yen continued strengthening and the Tankan confidence index plunged to a 3 year low) it was anything but an April fool's joke to both local traders.

Goldman's Take On Yellen's Dovish Deluge: "A Less Confident Take On Rate Normalization"

In recent weeks, Goldman Sachs has gained prominence by being the only bank left standing in its confidence that the Fed's forecast of 2 rate hikes in 2016 is wrong, and instead is sticking with its hawkish prediction of at least 3 rate hikes for 2016. This also explains why Goldman has been pounding the table on long US dollar bets, which incidentally have led to major losses in the past three major central bank announcements, two from Mario Draghi and one from Yellen. why we were curious how Goldman would reconcile the latest "dovish" shocker from Yellen which has unleashed a dramatic buying spree of all risk assets (as of this moments the S&P500 is trading at a 23x LTM GAAP P/E), with Goldman's hawkish bias.

America Hits Rock Bottom: Cities Are Paying Criminals $1000 Per Month "Not To Kill"

It is widely known that as part of the economic debate, the most controversial topic is whether to engage in helicopter money, i.e., hand out freshly printed money directly to the people. What is less known is that when it comes to the most despicable underbelly of US society, cash to the tune of $1000 per month is already being "helicoptered" to some of the most brazen criminals living in the US today with one simple condition: "don't kill people."

Why America May Not Be Considered A "First World Country" Much Longer

The Occupy Movement represented a clear indication that the working poor, or precariat, is no longer feeling represented by the First World state. With this massive inclusion of a working-class, poor, ethnically diverse group, to the already and obviously marginalized, the population of Fourth World America at the very least rivals the population of First World America. And while the American government continues to nominally supply aid to the Third World, the Fourth World inside the U.S. is slowly being forgotten.

This Is What's Happening To People Who Live Near The Worst Gas Leak In US History

“They’ve stopped saying everything’s fine. I’ve got two words for ‘everything’s fine’: Flint, Michigan.” On February 18, SoCalGas and the national media declared theworst methane gas leak in U.S. history” permanently sealed, but just over a month later, hundreds of Porter Ranch residents who evacuated — and are now returning home — are suffering the same symptoms they suffered when the gas leak was active.

For The Average American, Owning A Home Is Increasingly Unaffordable

Home prices are rising faster than wages in most of the United States, making homeownership increasingly difficult for average Americans in some of the most populous areas of the country, according to a report released on Thursday. The report found that home price growth exceeded wage growth in nearly two thirds of the nation's housing markets so far this year, with urban centers like San Francisco and New York City among the least affordable.

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The Forex Rigging Irony

While Forex banks, traders, and other institutions are being blamed for market rigging, the Swiss National Bank can publish reports about its own market rigging, but instead of being a scandal, it's economic data.  That's because the vast majority don't understand how the Forex markets work.  It's not insulting - it's a fact.  Currently there are hundreds of pending litigation cases against a plethora of Forex banks, traders, and other institutions - but none against a central bank.