Middle East

With many suggesting the world, already gripped in a global terrorism frenzy courtesy of the CIA-created "Islamic State", is on the verge of World War III (and with a NATO power bringing down a Russian fighter jet for the first time in over 60 years one can see where they get that idea) the result has been an unprecedented surge in demand for mode n weapons of all shapes and sizes... made in the US. Demand so high, in fact, that the US simply can't keep up: "It's worldwide. The demand signal is coming in Europe, in the Pacific and in Centcom." 

“Unknown air traffic position onto Humeymim 020, redirect to 26 miles. This is Turkish Air Force speaking - en guard. You are approaching Turkish airspace. Change your heading south immediately."

Why Now?

“From the mass psychology perspective, Gold is very close to putting in a bottom.  Sentiment investors, contrarian investors and investors who are familiar with the concept of mass psychology should consider taking a closer look at the precious metal’s sector now”.

"Fake", a simple definition: something that is not what it purports to be, a worthless imitation passed off as genuine; an impostor or charlatan.

Example: “American society is extraordinarily fake; filled with lies, fraud, facades, mirages, deception, disinformation, misinformation, propaganda and brainwashing.”

On Friday Nov. 20th we sold a half unit each of nearby January WTI trading at or near to $41.85 and nearby Brent trading at or very near to $44.23, giving us an average of $43.04. Our stated risk, was 2% on the position, so the stops were set at $42.10 and $45.11 respectively, and we used our “hour or so” methodology; that is, we’d want to see crude trade through those levels “for an hour or so” before activating the stops in question. Those stops have been activated. The Saudis caught us off. We are gone… now!

Update: Alleged footage of the crash site inside.

"If the strike is confirmed, the TOW missile was most likely supplied through the same US and Turkey-backed logistics programme that has reportedly been supplying Alwiya al-Ashar." 

It had been a relatively quiet session overnight when as reported previously, the geopolitical situation in the middle east changed dramatically in a moment, when NATO-member country Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet allegedly over Turkish territory even though the plane crashed in Syria, and whose pilots may have been captured by local rebel forces. The news promptly slammed Turkish assets and FX, sending the Lira tumbling, pushing lower European stocks and US equity futures while sending 2 Year German Bunds to record negative yields.

Brooks, who wanted to turn Syria into Iran's Vietnam, has changed to turning it into America's Second Vietnam! Brooks wants American troops in there fighting both ISIS and Assad. He's come to the conclusion that it is America that should "waste money and effort"! But wait! There's more: The grand strategy of American policy in the Middle East, therefore, should be to do what we can to revive and reform Arab nations, to help them become functioning governing units. The "grand strategy"?

As we noted recently, BofAML fears "a depeg of the Saudi riyal is the number one black-swan event for the global oil market in 2016," adding that it is "a highly unlikely but highly impactful risk." Given the recent action in Saudi Riyal forwards - the market's best guess at where the oil-ruch nation's currency will trade in the future - the chance of the black swan 'de-peg' is its highest since 2002. Besides this morning's "whatever it takes" moment, which oil markets quickly shrugged off, amid heavy subsidies to keep the people calm and the costs of wars in Yemen (and more in Syria), weak oil revenues leave The Sauds with few options (outside of the load the nation with ever more debt program): It's either stop it with the whole flooding an oversupplied market strategy, or let the peg fall before reserves runs dry.

These developments in terrorism are textbook Hegelian Dialectic, using problem-reaction-solution to justify a greater military presence in Syria and Iraq, despite nearly a decade and a half of fighting jihad, civil war and supporting “frenemies” across the region with arms, training and financial support. The founding fathers warned of this, but could scarcely foresee the cynical nature of today’s police state – where the terrorists created by the state have become the population’s worst nightmare.

As Donald Trump came under fire for claiming that he saw Muslims in New Jersey cheering on 9/11, admitted-non-total-truth-speaker Ben Carson jumped on the bandwagon claiming he too "saw film of it." Now, in yet another embarrassing u-turn 'oops' for the retired (now it all makes sense) neurosurgeon, the Carson campaign told CBS News Monday evening that Carson is "really not" standing behind his earlier statement and that the GOP presidential candidate was thinking of other footage he saw.

"The political left is happy to see people cross borders but would gladly restrict the flow of capital and goods. The political right is happy to see capital and goods cross borders but would gladly build a fence to restrict the flow of people. I’m afraid that the compromise might be to restrict people, capital and goods."

If it doesn’t start a war in the short run, it’s going to guarantee a U.S. bankruptcy in the slightly longer run. All the “hawks” running for president this year (which is to say, almost every candidate) seem oblivious to the fact that, in anything but the briefest conflict, economic power completely trumps military hardware. Simply put, whenever you see a mention of the U.S. Navy and the Spratlys in the same paragraph, you’re seeing a reminder of an open vein helping to bleed America dry. And that’s the best case.