Middle East

The narrative being sold through the media is that Greece is to blame, that German taxpayers are on the hook for Greek debts (while they’re really on the hook for German banks’ losing wagers). And that is, no matter how you twist it, not the same story. It’s again just a narrative. Brussels is toxic - and so is the IMF - and Greece should leave as soon as possible, as should Italy, Spain, Portugal. We should all resist the spin-induced attempts to demonize Putin, Athens and China any further, and instead focus on the rotten apples in our own basket(s). In short, the propaganda we should be worried about is not Russia’s, it’s our own. And it comes from just about every news article we’re fed. We’re much less than six degrees removed from Orwell.

In Part 1 of “The New Silk Road,” we examined the China’s plan for rebuilding the silk road, stretching from Europe to Asia. In Part 2, we looked at currently proposed projects, and what could stall and hamper progress. In Part 3, we examine the geopolitical rivalries, prospects for success, and investment implications.

• Razor-edge U.S. Congress vote to decide fate of Obama Pacific trade pact (Reuters)
• EU Readies for Default as Tsipras Drives Greek Finances to Brink (BBG)
• Greece Can’t Plan a Barbecue, Let Alone a Currency, Nielsen Says (BBG)
• IMF quits Greece talks amid ‘air of unreality’ as deal unravels (FT)
• Greece Counts Cost of One Man's Gamble (BBG)
• Merkel urges Greece and creditors to keep pushing for deal (Reuters)
• Fearful ECB starts countdown on Greek funding lifeline (Reuters)
• Greek stocks suffer further pummelling (FT)

Moscow-based cybersecurity firm Kaspersky Lab has released a detailed report that outlines how spyware (which some suggest originated in Israel) was used to infiltrate the hotels that hosted the Iran nuclear negotiations. From the report: "Earlier this year, during a security sweep, Kaspersky Lab detected a cyber intrusion affecting several of its internal systems. Following this finding, we launched a large-scale investigation, which led to the discovery of a new malware platform. Notably, some of the new 2014-2015 infections are linked to the P5+1 events and venues related to the negotiations with Iran about a nuclear deal."

Amid slumping export growth and the second-largest MERS outbreak on record, the Bank of Korea overnight cut its benchmark policy rate by 25bps to 1.5%, a record low.

"Today, Europe is not independent… The US is drawing us [the EU] into a crusade against Russia, which contradicts the interests of Europe,” said the former French Prime Minister Fillon while the chief economist at Bremer Landesbank adds that as a result of US policies "unmeasurable damage lies in an elevated geopolitical risk situation for the people in the EU.”

The highly regarded former chairman of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volcker, has severely criticized the State Governments in the U.S. over “faulty practices” used to devise budgets which mask the true financial position of those states.

While Obama is currently under fire for stating at the recently concluded G-7 summit in Germany that the US "does not yet have a complete strategy" how to deal with ISIS, the reality as relates to the true US strategy, namely the ouster of Syria's president al Assad, could not be more different. Because while ISIS continues to deflect attention from what is really happening in the middle east, the noose around Syria's Assad is tightening one day at a time, with the latest blow coming overnight after Syrian "rebels", also supported by the US (and allowed to call in B-1B strikes), scored a major military victory capturing the second biggest Syrian army base in the south of the country, located in the city of Deraa near the border with Jordan, and just 100 km south of Damascus.

• Greece Said to Submit Revised Budget Plan in Bid for Funding (BBG)
• Protesters seek firing of Texas officer who threw girl to ground (Reuters)
• HSBC to cut 50,000 jobs in quest for higher dividends (Reuters)
• U.S. base shipped live anthrax to 19 states plus D.C.: Pentagon (Reuters)
• Obama Administration Opens Door for More Student-Debt Forgiveness (WSJ)
• China Said to Weigh Margin Finance Rule Change Amid Stock Boom (BBG)
• Doctor who trained U.S. troops suspended for macabre techniques (Reuters)
• Exxon to Face Regulators’ Questions Over Quakes (WSJ)

in a follow up piece to his stunning original investigative report, Nafeez Ahmed reveals that according to leading American and British intelligence experts, the previously declassified Pentagon report confirms that the West accelerated support to extremist rebels in Syria, despite knowing full well the strategy would pave the way for the emergence of the ‘Islamic State’ (ISIS). The experts who have spoken out include renowned government whistleblowers such as the Pentagon’s Daniel Ellsberg, the NSA’s Thomas Drake, and the FBI’s Coleen Rowley, among others. Their remarks demonstrate the fraudulent nature of claims by two other former officials, the CIA’s Michael Morell and the NSA’s John Schindler, both of whom attempt to absolve the Obama administration of responsibility for the policy failures exposed by the DIA documents.

We previously warned of the risks of escalation in The Middle East to something much more dangerous, but, as the Saudi ambassador to UK confirmed today, the risk of Wahhabis going nuclear is even higher than many expected, "...if [Iran will not offer assurances it will not pursue nuclear weapons], then all options will be on the table for Saudi Arabia... Iran’s nuclear program poses a direct threat to the entire region and constitutes a major source and incentive for nuclear proliferation across the Middle East, including Israel."

Following OPEC’s decision not to cut production at its June 5, 2015 meeting in Vienna, oil prices should likely continue their descent that began in early May (Figure 1). Prices may fall into the $50+ per barrel range since there is no tangible reason for their rise from January’s $46 low.

When OPEC did not cut production last November, the oil market collapsed in shock and awe that the cartel would not just give in and allow non-OPEC members to walk away with market share. Today, in Vienna, "exactly as expected," OPEC once again confirmed production will remasin at 30 million barrels per day in the face of the global oil glut and prices for WTI and Brent have jumped $0.50 to $1.00 (we presume on machines and removal of a worst case boost to production).