Middle East

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Favoring “Friends” ... Harassing “Enemies” ... Propaganda ... Cyber-Warfare ... Track ‘Em and Whack ‘Em

With the NSA already combing through and recording every form of electronic communication (or 1.6% of all global internet traffic to be precise), it was only a matter of time before a scare involving plain vanilla physical mail took place. Such as what just happened at JFK airport at 9 am this morning, when as ABC reports (with a substantial delay) that "Two postal inspectors at JFK Airport were sickened Sunday after opening a package at a postal processing facility. Field tests showed an initial finding of nerve gas, though authorities believe it's a low likelihood that it's actually nerve gas. It is more likely a standard-use chemical that shouldn't have been in the mail like a solvent or degreaser. The FBI was called in and additional testing is underway. The condition of the customs agents is not yet known."

One of the more surprising news to hit the tape yesterday was that Saudi Arabia, exasperated and desperate by Russia's relentless support of the Syrian regime and refusal to abandon the Syrian army thus facilitating the Qatari plan to pass its natgas pipeline to Europe under Syria, had quietly approached Putin with a proposal for a huge arms deal and a pledge to boost Russian influence in the Arab world if only Putin would abandon Syria's Assad. It will hardly come as a surprise to anyone that in the aftermath of yesterday's dilettante mistake by Obama which alienated Putin from the western world (and its subservient states such as Saudi Arabia of course), has just said no. It will certainly come as no surprise because as we explained previously, the biggest loser from Russia abandoning Syria (something we predicted would never happen) would be none other than Russia's most important company - Gazprom - which would lose its energy grip over Europe as Qatar replaced it as a nat gas vendor. What is shocking in all of this is that Saudi Arabia was so stupid and/or naive to believe that Putin would voluntarily cede geopolitical control over the insolvent Eurozone, where he has more influence according to some than even the ECB, or Bernanke. Especially in the winter.

A bearish take on U.S. stocks is about as fashionable as a beehive hairdo at the moment, which makes it a decent time to think like a contrarian.  Sell-side strategists with a sense of reality are few and far-between but as ConvergEx's Nick Colas warns, the most important reason for caution currently is, obviously, valuation and complacency.  U.S. stocks currently reflect, both in price level (16x current year earnings) and implied volatility (an 11 handle VIX), an economic acceleration which has yet to fully flower.  In addition, Colas adds, domestic equities look good in part simply because everything else – Europe, Japan, emerging markets, etc... - look so bad.  Wouldn't an accelerating U.S. economy spill over to other regions?  So what is lurking around the corner for the next lucky Fed head? And what about the three main memes for why the 'bull' can keep running?

Confidence leads to spending; spending strengthens the economy; and economic strength buttresses confidence. It’s a circular, self-fulfilling prophesy. Confidence can also fuel market movements. Belief that the price of an asset will rise causes people to buy the asset... making its price rise. This is another way in which confidence is self-fulfilling. But, of course, as Oak Tree Capital's Howard Marks points out, the confidence that underlies economic gains and price increases only has an impact as long as it exists. Once it dies, its effect turns out to be far from permanent. As the economist Herb Stein said, "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop." This is certainly true for confidence and its influence. As far as confidence today, Marks notes significant uncertainty is one of the outstanding characteristics of today’s investing environment. It discourages optimism regarding the future and limits investors’ certainty that the future is knowable and controllable. In other words, it saps confidence. This is a major difference from conditions in the pre-crisis years. In fact, Marks warns he doesn't remember when his list of 'uncertainties' was this long...

Embassy evacuations are so last week. In an apparent escalation of the threat level to some unspecified color, earlier today the U.S. Air Force flew some American personnel out of Sanaa, Yemen, the Pentagon said, as the United States told its citizens to leave the country and ordered the evacuation of non-essential government staff "because of a terror threat." Reuters quotes Pentagon spokesman George Little who said in a statement  that "in response to a request from the U.S. State Department, early this morning the U.S. Air Force transported personnel out of Sanaa, Yemen, as part of a reduction in emergency personnel."  He did not specify which types of personnel were involved or where they were taken. "The U.S. Department of Defense continues to have personnel on the ground in Yemen to support the U.S. State Department and monitor the security situation," the statement said.

"No passion so effectually robs the mind of all its powers of acting and reasoning as fear."

- Edmund Burke

Some analysts and Congressional officials suggested Friday that emphasizing a terrorist threat now was a good way to divert attention from the uproar over the N.S.A.’s data-collection programs, and that if it showed the intercepts had uncovered a possible plot, even better.

- NY Times article from August 2, 2013: Qaeda Messages Prompt U.S. Terror Warning

We do not inhabit a “normal” economy. We live in a financialised world in which our banks cannot be trusted, our politicians cannot be trusted, our money cannot be trusted, and – not least thanks to ongoing spasms of QE and expectations of much more of the same – our markets cannot be trusted. At some point (though the timing is impossible to predict), asset markets that cannot be pumped artificially any higher will start moving, under the forces of inevitable gravitation, lower.

The latest subjunctive paraphrase, just released by the US State Department: "Please don't panic... well, actually panic just a little bit, but thanks to the NSA's pervasive snooping activity, in retrospect there will have been no need to panic, as any terror threats will have been promptly eliminated (except for those that sneak through the NSA's dragnet like the Boston bombing of course). So all is well... but not really, which is why we are extending embassy closures for a little more, due to highly specific unspecified threats which we can't reveal. Just know the threats are there. But thanks to the NSA, there is nothing to worry about. Unless there is."

When one examines the impending disaster in Egypt, it is important to avoid using a narrow lens and take into account the bigger picture. An Egyptian civil war will not ultimately be about Egypt. Rather, it will be about catalyzing the whole of the Middle East towards breakdown and drawing in larger nations in the process, including the United States. It will also be about triggering energy price increases designed to give cover to the collapse of the dollar's world reserve status. If globalists within our government and within central banks allow the dollar to die today, THEY will be blamed for the collapse that follows. THEY will be painted as the villains. But, if they can create a crisis large enough, that crisis becomes the scapegoat for all other tragedies, including dollar debasement. Egypt is just one of many regions in the world where such a crisis can be fabricated. Right now, it seems to be the most opportune choice for the elites.

In an important diversion from a pure markets focus, Marc Faber outlines his concerns and hopes for the "economic battle between the US and China," noting that as the gap between the Western world and the US narrows so "through trading links, [China] has more and more influence," especially (he adds) in Africa. His biggest fear, and one stoked every day, is that if the Chinese economy slows down meaningfully, they will depreciate their currency, leaving the world's largest economies "in a mode of protectionism - not just through import quotas - but through currency manipulation." And for now Russia is happy just tp upset the US via diplomatic means, but, Faber warns, should we see commodity prices slide further, low growth in Russia may prompt further actions - especially given US interference in markets and politics.

First we had Schordinger markets in which value is either zero or whatever the Fed says it is; then we got Schrodinger economies when China was both expanding and contracting at the same time; now we have Schrodinger military coups which are both a coup and not a coup, at least as far as the US is concerned. According to AP: "The Obama administration will tell lawmakers Thursday that it won't declare Egypt's government overthrow a coup, U.S. officials said." So why will the US claim the obvious military overthrow of Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood was a "democratic" process? Simple: it will allow the United States "to continue providing $1.5 billion in annual military and economic aid to the Arab world's most populous country." And why will the US continue providing Egypt with $1.5 billion in annual military aid? Simple: so Egypt can continue buying more Made In Lockheed Martin F-16 fighter jets to spread the Nobel Peace Prize winner's diplomatic agenda in the middle east. Because one must always think of the children GDP.

Gold surged over 3% yesterday due to what appears to be have been significant short covering due to concerns about gold backwardation and the continual haemorrhaging of gold inventories from the COMEX.

Concerns about a default on the COMEX, once the preserve of a few observant market watchers, are becoming more widespread  as we appear to be witnessing a run on the highly leveraged bullion banking system.

Very robust physical demand from the Middle East, Asia and particularly China and a decline in the dollar also helped prices log their biggest one-day gain in over a year and their first close above $1,300 an ounce in nearly five weeks.

Gains in silver futures, meanwhile, outpaced gold’s rise, with silver surging 5%.

Surplus capital used to be the understood as the primary challenge, but this fell out of favor.  This essay seeks to return it to the center of the narrative.