Blood in the leveraged momo streets. Nikkei was crushed overenight as USDJPY could not hold 107. European stock indices are tumbling led by weakness in Spain, Portugal, and Italy. The peripheral bond markets are also getting crushed (spreads wider by 15-20bps). This has bled over into US equities with Nasdaq leading the way lower. Treasury yields are collapsing (10Y tests below 2.15%). The USD is modestly lower but oil is continuing to collapse testing the $80 handle for WTI.
Seemingly catalyzed by opaque black-box bank earnings (and aided by a run for 107 stops in USDJPY), the S&P has jerked 14 points higher in a few minutes as bond yields remain entirely unimpressed in an uncomfortable case of deja deja deja vu from last week. 10Y yields are below 2.20%, 30Y under 3.00%, and 5Y under 1.5%.
Well that escalated quickly... high beta momo stocks are continuing to accelerate lower this morning as BTFD'ers seem absent for now. VIX topped 22 - its highest since Dec 2012. Once again, stocks tried to decouple from bonds (twice) and failed...
Following Friday's post-payrolls exuberance, the US Dollar crashed by the most in over a year today and stocks retraced most of their gains with only European data (weak) to base any momentum ignition on. Today's stock weakness turning point coincided with the bankruptcy headlines of GTAT but the divergence to USDJPY and bonds set the scene for stocks' demise. Trannies were today's laggard (after leading Friday) along with small-caps as The Dow clung to 17,000 and S&P closed marginally red. EUR strength led USD weaker and the plunge accelerated into the US close (eradicating all payrolls gains). USD weakness sparked commodity strength as gold (up most in 3 months), copper, and oil all rose and silver surged 3% (most in 4 months). VIX rose 0.8 to 15.3 as stocks closed ugly (not "off the lows" for Trannies and Russell) with a flush in financials.
The take-away from last month’s housing data was that “the market was returning to normal”, which despite the persevering weakness, was viewed as a “great thing”. This overly-simplistic and flawed assumption was made, as the all-cash cohort demand dramatically cooled and distressed supply and sales plunged YoY. What people are suffering from is a lack of a medium-term memory, as what’s happening today happened in 2007/08; “Peak Housing” It was the stimulus-driven, unorthodox “things” that drove the “V” bottom in demand and prices yet again, not coincidentally from exactly the time in 2011 that Twist was first announced and yields plunged. Although 2003-07 and 2011-13 were basically the same in nature, a big difference is that this stimulus-cycle was much greater in stimulus input over a shorter period of time than from 2003 to 2007. If stimulus “hangovers” are proportional to the amount of stimulus that preceded them, then this one could be a doozy.
10Y yields are back below 2.50% and the entire Treasury complex is flattening (erasing post-GDP losses) as fears over Catalan independence and Hong Kong protests spark safe-haven buying around the world. Gold is up, back over $1220 (pre-GDP levels) and Bunds are well bid yet the USD is fading modestly this morning driven by EUR and JPY strength. European periperhals bond risk is on the rise and stocks are mostly lower with Germany's DAX back below its crucial 50DMA. US equity futures are all red - retracing the entire Friday mini-melt-up in the afternoon (and catching back down to credit reality).
While Janet Yellen and her band of money printers work themselves into a tizzy over whether two buzz words - “considerable time” - should be dropped from their post-meeting word cloud, they might be better advised to just read the newspapers. This morning’s WSJ brings word that the lending boom which our monetary central planners are eager to stimulate is apparently off-to-the-races. Well, sort of. The item in question is a $122 billion globally syndicated loan to facilitate an M&A deal between the world’s two largest beer companies - AB InBev with a 20% global market share and SABMiller with 10%.
It appears today's weakness in stocks (most notably high-beta momo) and bonds (HY credit weakness) was triggered by two "ma"s - grandma Yellen and grand-poohbah BABA's Ma. Hawkish FOMC concerns took the shine off HY credit (and stocks) but Treasury bonds rallied modestly (5Y -3bps, 10Y -2bps). However, high-beta momo stocks dragged Nasdaq and Russell lower as 'smart money' proclaimed this was making room for the Alibaba IPO (which raises the question - if there is so much pent-up demand money on the sidelines just dying to be lost in the stock market, then why were so many high-beta, high-growth, momo names being sold today, theoretically in order to make room for the BABA IPO?) The USDollar ended marginally higher (GBP weakness, EUR strength) but most commodities gained on the day (Copper down on China) with WTI back to $93. Stocks did have a mini-melt-up on absolutely no news whatsoever into the last hour but gave most back. The Russell 2000 is -0.5% in 2014.
Treasuries closed practically unchanged today after yields spiked higher on 'ceasefire' news then rallied lower all day long (30Y -2bps 2Y unch). Credit markets surged tighter on the news then collapsed wider to the lows of the week by the close (diverging from stocks). The USDollar slipped lower on the day, led by EUR strength. Gold ($1,270) and silver limped higher all day but WTI crude took off, gaining back all the flush losses from yesterday (above $95). In stock-land, the cease-fire sparked exuberance to new record-highs. That strength began to fade as soon as the US opened with notable selling in the holiest-of-holies - AAPL. This wesighed on Nasdaq heavily (to red on the week) and Russell high-beta stocks tumbled. Despite the standard late-day VWAP ramp, stocks were unable to recover as USDJPY was no help after breaking back below 105.00 and ended with the worst day in 5 weeks. And finally, of course, the S&P 500 closed with a 2,000 handle - so crucial to maintain the dream.
That was quick! Last November Snapchat was valued at $2 billion in the private VC market; by Q1 that had risen to $7 billion; and yesterday it soared to $10 billion. Gaining $8 billion in market value in just nine months is quite a feat under any circumstance - but that’s especially notable if you’re are a company with no profits, no revenues and no business model. How much does it cost to manipulate an entire market? Apparently not much. And it’s getting cheaper!
Out of the gate - based on the fact the word "slack" was present and the word "bubble" was not, stocks ramped higher as J-Yell's J-Hole speech hit. Bond yields surged (led by 5Y) and the USDollar also surged (as gold shrugged). However, once the machines were done, humans reacted to the fact that this was not the "full dovish" speech that was 'priced in' and have started to sell stocks back... but then again - we always have Draghi later to save Friday...
Bubble Market Stunner: Revenueless Biotech Goes Public, Drops, Trades For Six Days, Then Voids Entire IPOSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 08/12/2014 11:49 -0400
In what is certainly a historic, and quite stunning, market first, not to mention prima facie evidence that Janet Yellen was right about the biotech (and not only) bubble, last week the equity markets experienced something that has not happened in decades: a biotech firm went public, traded for six days, only to announce Friday that it would void its IPO and won't issue shares after all, thanks to a key investor's failure to follow through on a commitment to buy stock. In other words, days after going public, yet another darling of the momo bubble mania du jour, decided to undo everything, and went back to being private (and soon: bankrupt).
"Don't fight the Fed," unless she tells you to sell your favorite idiot-maker momo stock. For a few days, investors were anxious after Yellen's July 15th warning, then a barrage of disgruntled asset-gatherers explained how 'she knows nothing about stock valuations' (but we must trust her every word on the economy). Now - 3 weeks later, Dow and Trannies are down 4%, S&P and Russell down 3%, and Nasdaq down 2% from her warnings... still wanna fight the Fed?
What a difference a weekend makes... After offering $2 billion for Trulia last week (and seeing its share soar), Zillow has decided that $3.5 billion worth of its bubblicious paper money-stock is the right price for its real estate marketing and income-less competitor Zillow. Of course, on the back of near-record short interest the stock has exploded higher once again this morning and is now up over 60% from before last week's offer. We suspect the word 'synergy' will be used heavily (and not the word 'layoff') but in the interests of helping our fellow man, we present the combined firm's income statement...
"The head of the International Monetary Fund warned on Friday that financial markets were "perhaps too upbeat" because high unemployment and high debt in Europe could drag down investment and hurt future growth prospects." To summarize: first the BIS, then the Fed and now the IMF are not only warning there is either a broad market bubble or a localized one, impacting primarily the momentum stocks (which is ironic in a new normal in which momentum ignition has replaced fundamentals as the main price discovery mechanism), they are doing so ever more frequently.