Momo

Do not panic, but it seems the flood of liquidity and central bank largesse can only do so much. The much-discussed issuance of 10 year Rwanda debt at a 7% yield earlier in the month made more than a few of even the most die-hard momo junkies look up from their 'Buy' keyboards for a brief second. In the past few days, something rather disturbing has occurred in this ultimate arbiter of risk-on demand... Rwanda bonds are selling off... now up 15bps in yield since issuance. Have no fear though as we are sure Abe, Bernanke, or Draghi will be along shortly with a plan to help SME lending in Rwanda... or will promise to do 'whatever it takes' to ensure Rwanda yields are not manipulated by speculators...

No news is the best news. Quite a week across every asset class dominated by the last two days as USDJPY broke 100 and seemingly all hell broke loose (apart from in stocks). Spikes in Treasury yields (10Y and 30Y +15bps on the week); a surging USD (+1.3%) driven by major JPY and AUD weakness (-2.75%) and the biggest drop in EUR in 6 weeks; Gold and Silver sold off hard (-3.5%) before bouncing back this afternoon ending -1.5% on the week; crude oil plunged but the Brent Vigilantes were not so easily beaten and ripped back above $96 and higher to close the week. Bond-like stocks (Utes) were hammered as high-beta cyclicals (homebuilders) ripped and while stock indices rolled over a little they remain near highs. It's not all sunshine and ponies though... credit markets drastically underperformed (playing catch down from an exuberant few days but sending a clear message to stocks) and the VIX curve steepened rather significantly around the Labor Day horizon - a date that represents desk chatter for "tapering" and debt ceiling drama to re-appear). S&P futures exhibited a spooky 15-min cycle zig-zag pattern this afternoon - in a totally human way... and average trade size was very low (algos) - right before the late-day ramp.

Quite a day. European stocks exploded on the noise of the US payrolls beat this morning. Unusually Germany's DAX outperformed (as opposed to high beta momo monkeys like Spains IBEX or Italy's MIB) taking it to its best 8-day run in 18 months (sure, why not) and within 0.25% of its all-time intraday highs (but highest close ever). All European indices surged and while euphoria reigned throughout (for some reason), European sovereign bonds leaked higher in spread (deteriorated). EURUSD reversed its losses on NFP and stabilized unch from that data point (though 55 pips higher on the day) as EURJPY was the dominating pair. German and Swiss 2Y remain negative though both saw rates rise today. Europe's VIX collapsed from 20.5% to under 17.5% today, its lowest in 2 months. Today's 'squeeze' in Europe had started early in credit and it seems stocks just played catch up when the NFP print hit. 

Today was a non-POMO day; a day when the Federal Reserve did not actively inject a couple billion dollars into bank reserves. The last 7 POMO days have been wonderfully green for the cash equity session. Today, no POMO, no MOMO, no new highs. What was different? Europe was closed (so we didn;t get the ubiquitous surge post EU close), we had poor data (bad has been good for weeks now), bonds outperformed (equities haven't cared at all for weeks), and the USD weakness 'should' have been equity positive (if correlations held). But it didn't. Trannies were monkey-hammered with their second-biggest drop in almost six months but the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq are clung together down around 1% (biggest drop in 2 weeks).  FX markets were 'sporadic' with periods of silence punctuated by chaos (around the FOMC) - JPY's last 5 days now equal the biggest rally in two years as it tested up to 97 and pulled back. The worst first-day-of-the-month since June of last year for stocks seems to signify a Great Un-rotation as Treasuries were well bid (yields down 4-5bps to new 2013 lows).

For the start of a quarter, volume was very weak today (but to be somewhat expected given the holiday) and despite two valiant algo-driven attempts to save the day, the S&P and Nasdaq ended back below its pre-Cyprus levels. The 'magical' Dow ended only a smidge lower on the day as the 'real' markets were all weak. Builders led the drop today but financials (especially the majors) continue to be monkey-hammered (Citi and MS now down 8% post-Cyprus). AAPL also stood out with its biggest drop in 10 weeks as the 50DMA breakout appears to have foxed many fast-money types. The USD faded on the day but provided no juice for stocks as the JPY strength hurt FX carry. VIX made higher highs on the day - hitting 14% as Treasury yields in general slipped 1-2bps. Gold ended unch, Silver down1.6% and Oil's afternoon strength supported some algos under the S&P. Today's equity weakness appears as much a catch-down from last week's disconnects as a possible reflection of the fact that US macro data has seen its worst 3-day run in 9 months.

While yesterday's biggest S&P drop of the year to date, and today's risk off continuation, is merely a modest response to the completely baseless fear that the Fed will no longer create free beta for everyone, to most liquidity-addicts it is merely a chance to "BTFD." So for the benefit of those who just can't wait for the momentum to return (in a world where fundamentals are completely meaningless as a result of the Fed's soon to be $4 trillion balance sheet and only momo and hope-based strategies remain), we provide our quarterly update of the most hated stocks as represented by the percentage of short interest relative to float. Because as the recent Herbalife saga has shown, the only residual strategy from the Old Normal in a time when the only thing matters is what direction the Fed chairman sneezes, is to force epic short squeezes not based on fundamentals but purely on stock technicals and massive short overhangs.

The USD ends the week up over 0.6%, Treasury yields down 2-4bps, Silver up 4.6%, Oil 2%, and Gold 1.4%; but it is VIX that rules the waves of unreality this week as it collapsed from this morning's unchanged on the week, played catch down to stocks (from yesterday) and then led stocks on a vol steepening/compression extravaganza down to 12.31% - its lowest since June 2007 as the 'contingent' extension of the debt-limit appeared the initial trigger and nothing at all the secondary trigger. AAPL wavered below and tested up to $500 (amid very large average trade size) but was the distinct loser once again with size sellers as S&P 500 futures surged (yet agin inferring the unwind of the long-AAPL, short-ES trade continues). Once the fire was lit, there was no stopping the stop-chasing momo run in stocks as ES chased all the way up above the week's highs. VXX was crushed (as the curve also compressed) and high-yield credit and stocks tracked each other in the rampapalooza. Of course the moment the day-session close, ES cracked back lower but for now no one cares (ending up just 5 points in the S&P cash). Average trade size was high once again in the S&P as the USD, Bonds, and Stocks were bid.

Casting a broad eye across all asset classes today, the theme of QE-Off was quite apparent. USD strength, Gold/Silver leaking lower, Stocks gathering downward momentum (as high-beta hotels underperform - AAPL 2nd biggest drop in over 3 months), Treasuries underperforming, and VIX rising rapidly with notable term structure flattening (to its lowest of the year). Volume was on the light side - which suggests this was more longs covering than shorts being laid out (as positioning into recent strength was light and looks to have capitulated Thurs/Fri. Dow Transports outperformed - which appeared more a value rotation as NASDAQ fell back to practically unch (along with the Dow) from the 8/21 swing highs. Equities definitely led the weakness today as cross-asset-class correlation broke down, and futures kept falling after-hours with S&P 500 e-mini futures closing down 12pts - right at the up-trendline of the recent move.

Q2 hedge fund reporting season has come and gone. Below is a summary of the key funds, and who held what at the end of June.

After a brief spike higher (just to flush all those stops) in front of Draghi's 'dis-believe' press conference this morning, markets plunged. Some wanted more but algos tickled us up to VWAP into the close once again though we note that once there - volume and average trade size surged, allowing those bigger momo players a better exit than mere mortals. Equities and broad risk assets stayed in very close sync all day with cross asset class correlation surging systemically, VIX rose and fell on the day ending down 1.4 vols at 17.5%  (after touching 19.25% after the European close) - but notably VIX is now more back in line with equity/credit implied values. The USD ends today up 0.8% on the week, and implicitly commodities tumbled (copper and oil  down 3-3.5% on the week and gold/silver -2%). Treasury yields bounced higher as stocks nibbled back to VWAP into the close but ended down 2-4bps (long-end outperforming). All in all - no capitulation, but a broad based derisking that seemed to benefit from some pre-positioning in protection (and help from the VWAP algos twice). Wil tomorrow's NFP be good enough to be bad or bad enough to be good (high volume and low average trade size suggests few want to position for it too aggressively).

When day after day, for three days in a row last week, the ECB spread rumors that it would commence buying Spanish debt in what was in retrospect nothing but a massive bluff (just as we suggested yesterday), what passes for a market postulated that since there was no official German denial, and with Merkel on vacation that would mean a statement from her finance minister sidekick Wolfgang Schauble, that Germany was ok with the reactivation of Spanish bond buying and as a result ramped risk by over 4% in 3 days. All of that is about to wiped out as Schauble has finally spoken. Quote Spiegel: "For days, it is rumored that the ECB will buy Spanish government bonds in a big way. Now Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has rejected such reports - there was "no truth". And scene. Luckily all the momo chasers who bought stocks last week on hopes their prayer-based strategy will finally play out, will be able to sell ahead of all those other momo chasers who bought stocks last week on hope their prayer-based strategy will finally play out. Or maybe not.

Following the release of ugly earnings, Chipotle has finally been reacquainted with reality (down 18%), and the stock that has long been a darling of momo "investors" everywhere, because in a reflexive broken market, a stock is worth not a penny less than what the previous biggest fool is willing to pay for it, is getting decimated. Naturally, adding insult to muppet monkeyhammering, here is Goldman Sachs who decide to, after the fact, drop CMG from its conviction buy list.

Equities and broad risk-assets were generally in sync today until around 1430ET when between rumors of a Euro-wide deposit-guarantee 'scheme' - which we had already dismissed as impossible short-term, very unlikely medium-term, and not a long-term solution to redenomination/insolvency risk - and Kocherlakota's hints as NEW QE if the fiscal cliff arrives - US equity markets took off (as did Gold). S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) pushed to more than 12pts rich to CONTEXT (our proxy for risk-assets based on TSYs, FX carry, credit, and commodities) on all that hope - stalling at yesterday's late-day heavy volume swing highs. Of course the high-beta momo monkeys were pounced on and AAPL as well as the major financials all popped notably - breaking above yesterday's closing VWAP. Today was a low average trade size day - the lowest in a week (but a relatively high volume day) - after a large average trade size day yesterday which smells like algos pushing to enable larger selling (especially as we expect a denial any moment from Europe). VIX plunged off its highs but closed only marginally down with ES closing very marginally higher on the day - so some context is required to avoid anchoring bias intraday and while TSY yields did pop and EUR rallied after equities got going, they remain notably divergent from that sur-reality. Gold and Silver surged on the QE/EU hopes as well but remain down 2% and 3% on the week.

It was all going to plan until that early angst from Egan-Jones Spain downgrade was increased by L-Pap's 'sky-is-falling' Greek exit plans comments. Treasuries had leaked higher in yield and recoupled with stocks (after the divergence yesterday) but the USD (driven by EUR deterioration) was pushing higher (diverging from its recent correlation). This was dragging commodities lower but gently as stocks (especially financials) continued their dead-cat impressions. Even Facebook showed signs that the deluge of reality was coming off its shoulders. By the European close, stocks had pulled unhealthily high relative to risk-assets in general (once again) and credit was lagging a little. The Spain downgrade news stalled the EUR which began to slide - as did Gold and Silver along with USD strength - but Treasuries kept on limping higher in yield and tracking stocks, Then in the last hour of the day the L-Pap headlines - along with an increasing sense of deceleration (we saw heavy volume come in just after the European close - suggesting covering of the heavy volume up from the bounce lows yesterday) - and all the momo names started to lag with AAPL losing steam (more schadenfreude there after our comments yesterday) and then financials stumbled off their exuberant highs (though JPM managed a very good gain of over 4.5% still - as IG9 compressed for the first time in a few weeks). S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) managed only a small loss but all the positive momentum was lost and large average trade size pressure came in at the close as it tried to get up to VWAP. VIX gained 0.5vols to close back above 22.5% and the term structure bear-steepened a little more. Yesterday's credit-led strength faded today, as skews normalized, with HYG losses and a renewed fear of the ETFs and indices leaking into the real bond market soon once again. Clusterbook is trading $30.80 after-hours with over 101mm shares traded!

Many pixels have been 'spilled' trying to comprehend what exactly JPMorgan were up to, where they are now, and what the response will likely end up becoming. Our note from last week appears, given the mainstream media's 'similar' notes after it, to have struck a nerve with many as both sensible and fitting with the facts (and is well worth a read) but we have been asked again and again for a simplification. So here is our attempt, in 22 simple tweets (or sentences less than 140 characters in length) to describe what the smartest people in the room did and in possibly the most incredible irony ever, how the Fed (and the Central Banks of the world) were likely responsible for it all going pear-shaped for Bruno and Ina. The key factor is that if systemic risk had remained in even a 'normal' range of possible regions based on history, then the JPM CIO office would have had no need to over-hedge their tail-risk hedge position, no greed-driven need to press the momentum, and no need for such an epic collapse as we are seeing now. The point is - this was a trader/manager with a good idea (hedge tail risk) that was executed poorly (and with arrogance) but exaggerated by the unintended consequences of the Central-Banks-of-the-world's actions (and 'models behaving badly' as Derman would say).