Monetary Base

What Keeps Goldman Up At Night About 2017

Between China, credit markets, financial conditions, political uncertainty, the consequences of Brexit, the presidential elections, global trade, the risk of sharp reflation, and the impotence of central banking, here are the top things that keep Goldman Sachs up at night about 2017.

Will A Stronger Dollar Cause A Trade War With Europe?

Everyone and their dog in the marketplace realizes that an EMU (European Monetary Union) debt crisis before the German elections next Autumn could sink Chancellor Merkel. There is a deeper problem here. It is becoming clear that even beyond Europe’s election season, “monetary normalization” may well not be feasible.

Longest Winning Streak For Global Stocks Since September On Monte Paschi Bailout Hopes, ECB Optimism

Global stocks extended the longest winning streak since September, with Asia up 0.8% and Europe rising 0.7% while bonds and credit markets strengthened amid hopes that the European Central Bank will prolong quantitative easing, while optimism an Italian bailout of Monte Paschi will prevent European bank contagion, has pushed European financial stocks higher. US equity futures were little changed.

'Austrians' At The Fed?

Most financial journalists are not good, and in fact are wedded to a pro-Fed, pro-state ideology that subconsciously permeates everything they write. They are hopelessly unobjective, the naive products of their education and training. The world needs real diversity of thought and opinion, not the fake kind being discussed at the Fed.

David Rosenberg Calls For A Multi-Trillion, "Helicopter Money" Stimulus Package

David Rosenberg has a modest proposal in mind for the US economy: he says only a massive, multi-trillion stimulus package which includes helicopter money attached to a $2 trillion perpetual bond, massive infrastructure spending and measures to tackle the $1 trillion student debt load, has any hope of kickstarting the US economy.

Crude Declines As OPEC Deal Doubts Emerge; Futures Roll Over

After oil soared over 5% yesterday, its biggest jump since April, overnight skepticism and doubts have emerged about the viability and compliance with the deal, coupled with a boost in production by non-OPEC producers, and as a result WTI has dipped back under $47, down 0.5%, suggesting that the OPEC surge may be short-lived, and modestly pressuring US equity futures.

Global Stocks Tumble, US Futures Slide On Deutsche Bank Fears, Central Bank And Commodity Concerns

While today's biggest event for both markets and politics will be tonight's highly anticipated first presidential debate between Trump and Hillary, markets are waking up to some early turmoil in both Asia and Europe, with declines in banks and energy producers dragging down stock-markets around the world, pushing investors to once again seek the safety of government bonds and the yen.

The Fed's Missed Window & Failed Realizations

Unwittingly, the Fed has now become co-dependent on the markets. If they move to tighten monetary policy, the market sells-off impacting consumer confidence and pushes economic growth rates lower. With economic growth already running below 2%, there is very little leeway for the Fed to make a policy error at this juncture. Therefore, the Fed remains trapped between keeping the financial markets happy and trying to resolve their monetary dilemma. The problem is that eventually something has to give and it will likely not be the outcome the Fed continues to hope for.