A Fed-head talks, and precious metals markets fall. Readers are invited to call this paradigm of fraud anything that they want. But the one thing they can't call this is “a rally”.
There is perhaps no other area where the tunnel-vision, hypocrisy, and corruption of the U.S. media is more visible than with respect to its nearly incessant China-bashing. Previous commentaries have exposed such vacuous drivel again and again and again. Admittedly, the numbers involved should give any sober individual cause for concern. They are an obvious symptom of the global phenomenon of worthless, paper currencies being used to pump-up, manipulate, and destabilize our markets – to a degree never before seen in the history of our species. However, singling out China’s markets as being “prone to bubbles” represents hypocritical blindness on the part of the U.S. media which is too absurd to be accidental.
The increasingly obvious trend reversal in inflation, amid softening growth, indicates the long predicted arrival of stagflation. While not unexpected, this is likely to propel the gold price higher.
The overnight session has been one of alternative weakness and strength: it started in China where stocks tumbled 2.8% to a two month low following some unexpected warnings in the official People's Daily newspaper and poor trade data. Concerns about China, however, were promptly forgotten and certainly not enough to keep global assets lower, with European stocks gapping higher at the open and rallying from a one-month low, driven by a "surprising" surge in the USDJPY which has moved nearly 200 pips higher since its post-payrolls low. Another driver is the jump in oil, which rallied just shy of $46 a barrel, buoyed by Canadian wildfires that are curbing production and speculation that the Saudi Arabian oil minister succession will be bullish for oil prices.
“What this means for the Fed’s reaction function isn’t clear,” Pozsar concludes. “But our instinct tells us that we will deal with a Fed inherently more sensitive to global financial conditions, inherently more sensitive to global growth and inherently more dovish than in the past…” Far be it from yours truly to worry. Still, it’s hard to take comfort in the knowledge that the Drano we’ve all come to know, though maybe not love, is now off the market.
The biggest argument for a BOJ disappointment is that with the G7 meeting in Japan in on month on 26–27 May 2016, it’s unlikely that Japanese policymakers will want to draw attention yet again to the idea that they are in the business of manipulating the JPY lower. After all the most recent G20 meeting once again confirmed that absent "disorderly moves" in the Yen, the US would frown on any attempt to dramatically manipulate its currency lower.
"We expect $/JPY to move higher again in the near term and continue to forecast $/JPY at 130 a year from now.... by making the fiscal expansion permanent and funded through money creation (a politically correct phrase for a form of 'helicopter money'), expectations of future inflation should increase and real rates fall"
NIRP is a dud as far as monetary policy goes. Look for more QE shortly...
With everyone from ivory tower academics to sin-street hookers proclaiming the need for and benefits of a "war on cash" to save the world from criminals and tax-evaders (oh yeah and to stop NIRP-driven savers from hording cash and crushing central planners' dreams), it is perhaps shocking that Bundesbank board member Carl-Ludwig Thiele warned at an event this week that the attempt to abolish and criminalize cash is out of line with freedom. He said that citizens should continue to decide how and in what form they want to use their money.
The problem with forward earnings estimates is that they consistently overestimate reality by roughly 33% historically. The illusion of“permanent liquidity,” and the belief of sustained economic growth, despite slowing in China, Japan, and the Eurozone, has emboldened analysts to continue push estimates of corporate profit growth higher. Even now, as the earnings recession deepens, hopes of a sharp rebound in profitability remains ebullient despite the lack of any signs of economic re-acceleration.
Ever since the USDJPY breached the 110 support level three days ago for the first time in 17 months, the pressure on this all important FX carry cross has been rising, and then overnight, following the latest bout of recurring and increasingly ignored jawboning by various Japanese officials, the Yen soared, with the USDJPY plunging first below 109 and then moments ago dropping as low as 108.02 before rebounding modestly, dragging US equity futures lower with it.
Will the Fed be able to keep the game going? In a word, no. We’ve already seen that even the tiniest of interest rate hikes has gone hand in hand with a huge drop in the markets. Furthermore, the Fed’s subsidies to the banks are now on the order of $11 billion annually, but if they want to raise the fed funds rate to, say, 2 percent, then the annual payment would swell to more than $40 billion.
So far this year, Janet Yellen has not taken a single step in the direction of a “normal” monetary policy; our guess is that she never will. Why not? Is it because she is a witless tool of Deep State cronies? Is it because her economic theory is silly, superficial, and simpleminded? Or is it because she and her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, have done so much damage to the normal world that there is nothing to go back to?
Japan Goes Full Krugman: Plans Un-Depositable, Non-Cash "Gift-Certificate" Money Drop To Young PeopleSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/23/2016 20:06 -0400
The Swiss, the Finns, and the Ontarians may get their 'Universal Basic Income' but the Japanese are about to turn the Spinal Tap amplifier of extreme monetary experimentation to 11. Sankei reports, with no sourcing, that the Japanese government plans to unleash "vouchers" or "gift certificates" to low-income young people to stimulate the "conspicuous decline" in consumption among young people. The handouts may not be deposited, thus combining helicopter money (inflationary) and fully electronic currency (implicit capital controls and tracking of spending).
Have we gotten a “confession” to all of that? No.