Monetary Base
"Monetary Policy Is Bankrupt" Dr. Lacy Hunt Warns "Bonds, Not Stocks, Are A Good Economic Indicator"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/27/2015 18:35 -0500"While the wealth effect is a theoretical possibility, it is not supported by economic fact. The stock market is not a good guide to the economy, but...the bond market is a very good economic indicator. When bond yields are very low and declining it’s an indication that the same is happening to inflation and that economic activity is weak. The bond yields are not here for any fluke of reason. They are here because business conditions in the US and abroad are quite poor."
What Central Bank Defeat Would Look Like, In Charts
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/05/2015 19:45 -0500Deflation remains the enemy thanks to debt, deleveraging, demographics, tech disruption & default risks. US aggregate debt is today a staggering $58.0 trillion (327% of GDP); the number of people unemployed in the European Union is 23.6 million; Greece has spent 90 of the past 192 years in default or debt restructuring. 7 years on from the GFC... The massive policy response continues. Central bank victory means that lower rates, currencies, oil successfully boosts global GDP & PMI’s in Q2/Q3, allowing Fed hikes in Q4. Bond yields would soar in H1 on this outcome. Defeat, no recovery, and currency wars, debt default and deficit financing become macro realities.
Spot The Gold One Out
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/05/2015 14:18 -0500The chart below, which presents not only the total amount of sovereign gold holdings, but indicates the percentage of the monetary base backed by gold reserves, shows something rather stunning.
"Leverage Mismatches" - Why Q-ECB May Not Be A Favorable Development
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/26/2015 10:06 -0500It’s not entirely clear what will happen in the near term, but the financial markets are already pushed to extremes by central-bank induced speculation. With speculators massively short the now steeply-depressed euro and yen, with equity margin debt still near record levels in a market valued at more than double its pre-bubble norms on historically reliable measures, and with several major European banks running at gross leverage ratios comparable to those of Bear Stearns and Lehman before the 2008 crisis, we're seeing an abundance of what we call "leveraged mismatches" - a preponderance one-way bets, using borrowed money, that permeates the entire financial system. With market internals and credit spreads behaving badly, while Treasury yields, oil and industrial commodity prices slide in a manner consistent with abrupt weakening in global economic activity, we can hardly bear to watch...
Market Wrap: Futures Lower After BOJ Disappoints, ECB's Nowotny Warns "Not To Get Overexcited"; China Soars
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/21/2015 06:55 -0500- Bank Lending Survey
- Bank of England
- Bank of Japan
- BOE
- Bond
- China
- Copper
- Core CPI
- CPI
- Crude
- Davos
- Equity Markets
- Excess Reserves
- Germany
- Gilts
- Greece
- Housing Market
- Housing Starts
- Iraq
- Italy
- Japan
- Jim Reid
- Market Crash
- Monetary Base
- Monetary Policy
- Morgan Stanley
- NAHB
- Natural Gas
- Nikkei
- None
- NYMEX
- RANSquawk
- recovery
- Reuters
- Swiss Franc
- Switzerland
- Unemployment
- Volatility
- Wells Fargo
- Yen
Three days after Chinese stocks suffered their biggest plunge in 7 years, the bubble euphoria is back and laying ruin to the banks' best laid plans that this selloff will finally be the start of an RRR-cut, after China's habitual gamblers promptly forget the market crash that happened just 48 hours ago and once again went all-in, sending the Shanghai Composite soaring most since October 9, 2009. It wasn't just China that appears confused: so is the BOJ whose minutes disappointed markets which had been expecting at least a little additional monetary goosing from the Japanese central bank involving at least a cut of the rate on overnight excess reserves, sending both the USDJPY and US equity futures lower. Finally, in the easter egg department, with the much-anticipated ECB announcement just 24 hours away, none other than the ECB's Ewald Nowotny threw a glass of cold water in the faces of algos everywhere when he said that tomorrow's meeting will be interesting but one "shouldn’t get overexcited about it."
Sayonara Global Economy
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2015 19:30 -0500- 10 Year Treasury
- Abenomics
- Alan Greenspan
- Bank of Japan
- Belgium
- Ben Bernanke
- Ben Bernanke
- Bond
- Brazil
- Budget Deficit
- China
- Consumer Credit
- CRAP
- default
- Federal Reserve
- Finland
- France
- Free Money
- Germany
- Global Economy
- GMAC
- goldman sachs
- Goldman Sachs
- Greece
- Home Equity
- Housing Market
- Ireland
- Jamie Dimon
- Janet Yellen
- Japan
- keynesianism
- Krugman
- Ludwig von Mises
- Market Crash
- Middle East
- Monetary Base
- Mortgage Backed Securities
- National Debt
- Netherlands
- New Home Sales
- Nikkei
- Obama Administration
- Obamacare
- Real estate
- Real Interest Rates
- Recession
- recovery
- Savings Rate
- Student Loans
- Switzerland
- Unemployment
- Yen
- Yield Curve
The surreal nature of this world as we enter 2015 feels like being trapped in a Fellini movie. The .1% party like it’s 1999, central bankers not only don’t take away the punch bowl – they spike it with 200% grain alcohol, the purveyors of propaganda in the mainstream media encourage the party to reach Caligula orgy levels, the captured political class and their government apparatchiks propagate manipulated and massaged economic data to convince the masses their standard of living isn’t really deteriorating, and the entire façade is supposedly validated by all-time highs in the stock market. It’s nothing but mass delusion perpetuated by the issuance of prodigious amounts of debt by central bankers around the globe. But now, the year of consequences may have finally arrived.
Japan Is Writing History As A Prime Boom And Bust Case
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/30/2014 21:40 -0500The fate of countries like Japan is really in the hands of central bankers. However, central planners are not able to manipulate markets infinitely. At a certain point, something has to give. That is when the markets will give up and disbelief will replace trust. In such a bust scenario, people flee down the Golden Pyramid of asset classes to their safe haven, being gold.
The Economy Is Worse than During the Great Depression
Submitted by George Washington on 12/10/2014 20:43 -0500Underneath the Propaganda, the Economy Is In BAD SHAPE …
An Inside Look At The Shocking Role Of Gold In The "New Normal"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/06/2014 13:21 -0500- Abenomics
- Algorithmic Trading
- B+
- Backwardation
- Bank of Japan
- Bear Stearns
- Bond
- Borrowing Costs
- Capital Markets
- Central Banks
- China
- Commercial Paper
- Core CPI
- CPI
- Creditors
- Crude
- Crude Oil
- default
- Equity Markets
- ETC
- Eurozone
- Federal Reserve
- Federal Reserve Bank
- fixed
- Futures market
- Global Economy
- goldman sachs
- Goldman Sachs
- Hong Kong
- India
- Japan
- Lehman
- Meltdown
- Monetary Base
- Monetary Policy
- New Normal
- New York Fed
- Nikkei
- Nominal GDP
- OTC
- Precious Metals
- Quantitative Easing
- Real estate
- Reality
- Recession
- REITs
- Repo Market
- Reuters
- Roman Empire
- Shadow Banking
- Speculative Trading
- Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee
- Tyler Durden
- Unemployment
- Volatility
- Wall Street Journal
- World Gold Council
- Yen
Crisis Chronicles: The Panic Of 1819 - America’s First Great Economic Crisis
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/05/2014 18:55 -0500"The nation was leery of a national bank with seemingly endless power to manipulate the money supply and the Second National Bank of the United States was attacked by both the expansionists and the sound money opponents. It was during this period that future President Andrew Jackson shaped his anti-Bank views in Tennessee while his future hard-money arm in the Senate, Thomas Hart Benton (Old Bullion), shaped his views in Missouri, two of the hardest-hit states. The debate over central banking, and the concern over deflation and inflation, continue two hundred years later."
Key Events In The Coming Week
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/01/2014 08:36 -0500- Australia
- Beige Book
- Brazil
- China
- Consumer Confidence
- Consumer Credit
- Continuing Claims
- CPI
- Crude
- Czech
- Eurozone
- Federal Reserve
- France
- Germany
- Greece
- Hong Kong
- Hungary
- India
- Italy
- Japan
- Markit
- Mexico
- Monetary Base
- Money Supply
- New Zealand
- Non-manufacturing ISM
- Norway
- Poland
- recovery
- Romania
- Switzerland
- Trade Balance
- Turkey
- Ukraine
- Unemployment
- United Kingdom
Following last week's holiday-shortened week, which was supposed to be quiet and peaceful and was anything but thanks to OPEC's shocking announcement and a historic plunge in crude prices, we have yet another busy week of macroeconomic reports to look forward to.
If You Are A US Investor Who Is Bullish Japan, Look Away
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/20/2014 12:32 -0500Day after day, well-dressed talking heads are paraded on business media and proclaim how cheap Japan is, how Abenomics will work (he promise... if it doesn't we'll have to question everything we believe in), how GDP is backward-looking (so ignore it... and every other economic indicator), and how being long Japanese stocks (of course, hedged back to dollars because you don't want to take the currency risk that Abe is creating) is a "no brainer." The problem with that strategy is... in 2014, the JPY-hedged Japanese stock market investor in the US has not had a daily close in the green year-to-date and is down over 5% for the year... but it gets worse.
Things That Make You Go Hmmm... Like Japan's Inevitable Apocalypse
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/13/2014 22:45 -0500- Abenomics
- Bank of Japan
- BOE
- Bond
- Central Banks
- China
- default
- Dylan Grice
- Epsilon
- Equity Markets
- Global Economy
- Hyperinflation
- Japan
- Kyle Bass
- Kyle Bass
- Lehman
- Lehman Brothers
- Main Street
- Monetary Base
- Monetary Policy
- National Debt
- Nikkei
- PrISM
- Quantitative Easing
- ratings
- Real estate
- Sovereign Risk
- Sovereign Risk
- TARP
- Trade Balance
- Trade War
- Yen
- Yuan
Kuroda has fired the shot that looks likely to trigger the next phase of the crazy monetary experiment we’ve all been living in for the last five years. Unfortunately, the next phase is where things start to get nasty. Just because equity markets cheered the latest sugar rush he guaranteed them should not make smart investors lower their guard — quite the opposite, in fact. Colonel Kuroda has gone up-country into the Heart of Darkness, and all we can do is await the Apocalypse now.
The Russians Are Laughing All The Way To The Bank (With This Gold Price)
Submitted by Sprout Money on 11/12/2014 11:31 -0500Even Japan is playing dirty little tricks...
Deflation Comes Knocking On The Door
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/10/2014 16:38 -0500For the moment capital markets appear to be adapting to deflation piece-meal. The fall in the gold price is equally detached from economic reality. While it is superficially easy to link a strong dollar to a weak gold price, this line of argument ignores the inevitable systemic and currency risks that arise from an economic slump. The apparent mispricing of gold, equities, bonds and even currencies indicate they are all are ripe for a simultaneous correction, driven by what the economic establishment terms deflation, but more correctly is termed a slump.





