Monetary Policy

Key Events In The Coming Weeks: Italy Aftermath, ECB, ISM, Consumer Confidence

The key economic releases this week are ISM non-manufacturing on Monday and University of Michigan consumer sentiment index on Friday. Away from the US economic calendar, initially focus will be on the Italian referendum result, which appears to have been mostly digested by the market as bullish. It will then shift quickly to a critical ECB meeting.

Trump Vs China: Credit Cycles & Gold

As all experience from the past clearly demonstrates, it is a mistake to believe that the gold price is set solely by dollar interest rates, or its relative strength in other currencies. This being the case, the current weakness of the gold price is simply a reflection of temporary dollar shortages, and nothing more.

Weekend Reading: Trumponomics

“The problem for Trump is that we no longer reside in the 80’s where a large group of ‘baby boomers’ were entering the workforce and driving a massive wave of innovation and productivity changes.  Today, we are on the wrong side of the demographic trends combined with falling productivity and labor force growth.”

Visualizing The "Tectonic Shift" In The Markets' Narrative

"...we're at a phase in this UST / developed sovereign bond trade where previously acceptable conditioning (‘buy dips’; ‘get long-er duration because it just keeps working’; ‘never-ending bond inflows will always pause selloffs’ etc) are all being reset in real-time, and this behavioral shift is painful."

3 Things: Exuberance, Small Caps, & 6% Realities

"...there is a long way to go between President-elect taking office, drafting bills and getting them passed. There is even a further period of time before any actions actually passed by the Trump administration actually create perceivable effects within the broader economy. In the meantime, there are many concerns, from a technical perspective, that must be recognized within the current market environment."

The War On Cash Is Happening Faster Than We Could Have Imagined

The political and financial establishments want you to willingly get on board with the idea of abolishing, or at least reducing, cash. And they’re pumping out all sorts of propaganda to do it, trying to get people to equate crime and corruption with high denominations of cash. Simply put, the data doesn’t support their assertion.

All Aboard! Trump's Express Train To The Future

Everybody’s talking about the feds’ opportunity to “invest” free money. It makes us nervous; we know how hard it is to get a good return on investment – especially when you don’t know what you’re doing.

Aussie Housing Market Collapses: Building Approvals Crash 25%

Following September's 9.3% MoM plunge in Aussie home approvals, hopes were high that October would see a bounce (expectations were for a 2% gain) as central bankers jawboned confidence higher. However, it didn't... Building approvals collapsed 12.6% MoM and a shocking 24.9% year-over-year decline is equal to the worst drop since Lehman. Ironically, just this month Aussie Treasurer eased restrictions on foreign buyers (otherwise known as bag holders it would seem).

Druckenmiller Joins Gundlach In Predicting 6% Yields; Expects Market Correction As Rates Rise

Stanley Druckenmiller spoke at the Robin Hood Investors Conference today where repeated he is bullish on the American economy following Trump's victory, anticipates a much stronger dollar and higher bond yields. Notably, he joined Gundlach in predicting 10Y yields would rise to 6% over the next year or two, a process which would lead to an equity market selloff.