While keeping rates and its QE program unchanged (at €60bn/month), the ECB warned that "if the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, the Governing Council stands ready to increase the programme in terms of size and/or duration."
European and Asian shares, and S&P futures slipped, while government bond yields jumped to multi-week highs on Thursday after Yellen's hawkish speech. Oil rose after API reported a drop in crude inventories. The euro rebounded as investors look to Mario Draghi to address rising European inflation that make the ECB's stimulative policies look increasingly out of sync.
Less than two days before Donald Trump is inaugurated as the 45th president of the United States, Fed chair Janet Yellen takes to the stage at the Commonwealth Club of San Francisco to explain (after all these years), what "the goals of monetary policy are... and how we pursue them." We can't wait to hear how increasing asset prices to untenable levels, depriving savers of income, and driving the largest wedge between rich and poor since the great depression have been part of the solution...
America can no longer afford to waste trillions of dollars on a militaristic foreign policy. Donald Trump should follow-up his attacks on wasteful military spending by dramatically changing our foreign policy and working to cut the Pentagon's bloated budget. If the new administration and Congress increase spending, they will need the Federal Reserve to monetize the growing debt, but Fed action can only delay the inevitable day of reckoning.
They’re at it again. It isn’t enough that the Federal Reserve’s tighter monetary policies are hamstringing global economic growth, but over the past week a few different Fed officials floated the idea of reducing the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. They seem intent on tightening until something breaks.
1) Long a variety of low-multiple, tax-paying, U.S. value stocks; 2) Long AAPL; 3) Long GM; 4) Short “bubble basket.” 5) Short oil frackers, 6) Short CAT (and other similar industrial cyclicals that have moved much higher post-election).
Federal Reserve governor Lael Brainard Tuesday acknowledged that while expansionary fiscal policy could prompt the central bank to undertake a faster pace of interest rate increases and begin shrinking its balance sheet sooner than expected, the details of the policy shifts under Donald Trump are still quite uncertain and could come at significant costs.
There are five defining stages for the "Trump trade": Trading i) ‘the promise’; ii) the deal-making; iii) the enactment; iv) the economic impact, and, v) the payback. Trump’s press conference last Wednesday drew the line between ‘the promise’ phase, and, the stage where deliverables will become progressively more important. Here is what to expect next.
In effect British Citizens will be punished twice for Brexit, now with much higher inflation, and down the line with a substantial recession when they actually start to experience the effects of leaving the European Union.
The week ahead will be a busy one, with a plethora of events including the Davos shindig, where particular focus will be on Chinese President Xi Jinping, the first Chinese president to attend. China will also announce GDP on Friday, which also marks the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th US president. Tuesday brings Theresa May's long-awaited Brexit speech.
The “bond shock” story bubbles away in the background. And with the next 50-75bps rise in yields (due to perhaps expectations of trade wars or Chinese repatriation, or even further gains in inflation), the risk of a financial “event” is likely to jump. 2016 started with pessimism and ended with optimism; 2017 starts with optimism…
A problem has emerged as Wall Street scrambles to trade on Trump tweets: while HFT strategies can quickly identify that a stock was referenced in a tweet, isolating if the actual message is bullish, bearish or indifferent presents a major challenge.
European shares rose as Fiat rebounded on hopes concerns about parallel to Volkswagen are overblown, Asian stocks were little as Chinese shares fell to the lowest level of 2017 after poor export data, and U.S. equity-index futures rose ahead of a deluge of bank earnings. The dollar is headed for a weekly loss and gold trades at the highest price in almost two months.