Monetary Policy

"A Volatile Autumn": Buckled Up For Structured Criticality

Structured criticality is a property of complex systems in which small events may trigger larger events due to subtle interdependencies between elements. This often gives rise to a form of stratified chaos where the general behavior of the system can be modeled on one scale while smaller- and larger-scale behaviors remain unpredictable.

FOMC Minutes Signal Balance Sheet Normalization Begins In September, Most Saw Inflation Pick Up

Since the July 26th 'nothingburger' FOMC statement, Nasdaq is down but bonds and bullion are higher as domestic politics and global war have trumped monetary machinations. All eyes in today's Minutes will be on any mention of inflation and the balance sheet. The Fed sees inflation "picking up over the next couple years" but this came before last week's dismal CPI/PPI data (and they noted "downside risks"), and confirmed that they will make a balance sheet move "at upcoming meeting."

How Central Banking Increased Inequality

"The rise in income inequality over the past 30 years has to a significant extent been the product of monetary policies fueling a series of asset price bubbles. Whenever the market booms, the share of income going to those at the very top increases."

Global Stocks Rise Amid Unexpected ECB "Trial Balloon"; Dollar Flat Ahead Of Fed Minutes

European markets continued their risk-on trend in early trading, rising to the highest in over a week and rallying from the open led by mining stocks as industrial metals spike higher after zinc forwards hit highest level since 2007. The EUR sold off sharply, boosting local bond and risk prices after the previously discussed Reuters "trial balloon" report that Draghi's speech at Jackson Hole would not announce the start of the ECB's taper.

Euro Turmoils After ECB Walks Back Draghi Jackson Hole Appearance

The Euro whipsawed after Reuters "Trial ballooned" that contrary to a previous report by theWSJ, the ECB's Mario Draghi will not deliver a new policy message at the upcoming Jackson Hole conference, tempering expectations for the bank to start charting the course out of stimulus, and rallying European bonds as fears of an imminent taper have been pushed back once again.

Orwell Or Kafka - Ken Rogoff's Crusade Against Cash Continues

"Harvard professor and chess grandmaster Kenneth Rogoff has said some pretty out there stuff before, in his role as self-appointed crusader against cash, but apparently he’s not done yet. In fact, he might just be getting started..."