Monetary Policy

Japan QE Limit Approaching As Goldman Says BoJ Risks Losing Crediblity

Is the BoJ's back against the wall? We certainly think so as the evidence increasingly supports the notion that the central bank is bumping up against the limits of accommodative monetary policy and may soon be headed — as we've variously predicted —for "failed nation" status.

5 Things To Ponder: Don't Fight The Fed

Randolph Duke: Money isn't everything, Mortimer.
Mortimer Duke: Oh, grow up.
Randolph Duke: Mother always said you were greedy.
Mortimer Duke: She meant it as a compliment.

Frontrunning: April 10

  • Nikkei tops 20,000, Europe hits 15-year high (Reuters)
  • GE to sell real estate holdings, sets $50 billion share buyback (Reuters)
  • Iran’s Middle Class Plans for Life After a Deal (BBG)
  • Walgreens to Close 200 Stores as It Expands Cost Cuts (WSJ)
  • Hillary Clinton expected to announce presidential run as soon as this weekend (Reuters)
  • It will cost $1.5 billion to keep Deutsche Bank Libor Manipulators out of prison  (USA Today)
  • Police Cameras Bring Problems of Their Own (WSJ)
  • Obama says concerned China bullying others in South China Sea (Reuters)
  • Investors Revive Appetite for Asian Junk Bonds (WSJ)

Teachers Warn Of "Victorian" Poverty As Socks In Short Supply And Stocks At All-Time Highs

"Children in 2015 should not be hungry and coming to school with no socks on and no coats - some children are living in Victorian conditions - in the inner cities," a UK teacher tells BBC. With the FTSE near all-time highs, we suspect this is yet another example of how the deliberate inflation of financial assets works to eradicate the middle class.

Bernanke Supercycles

Despite what Bernanke says now, monetary policy is still talked about as if it were “pro-growth” and “stimulus”, powers that even its main proponent and practitioner no longer admits. The enduring legacy is bubbles and cycles, or, again to be fully specific, bubble-based supercycles. The problem is that the 14 million “lost” labor potential may only be the beginning.

15 Years Of Stimulus - Nothing To Show

At this point 15 years ought to count for something. After all, we have now used up one-seventh of this century. So you can’t say its too early to tell what’s going on or to identify the underlying trends. So, after another Jobs Friday: here is the tally: The number of breadwinner jobs in the US economy is still 2 million below where it was when Bill Clinton still had his hands on matters in the Oval Office.

FOMC Minutes Expose World Weary, Un-Patient, Dow-Data-Dependent Fed

Following the surprise dovish FOMC dot-downgrade to counter hawkish 'patience removal', and this morning's admission by Dudley that The Fed is Dow-Data-Dependent; expectations for the FOMC Minutes offering any insights were low...

  • *FED OFFICIALS FAVORING LIFTOFF LATER IN 2015 CITED DOLLAR, OIL, CHINA, GREECE
  • *FED OFFICIALS WERE SPLIT ON JUNE RATE RISE, FOMC MINUTES SHOW
  • *MOST OFFICIALS SAW RISKS TO OUTLOOK, JOB MKT NEARLY BALANCED

So "worried" about the world, "downside" risk to growth but reasons to be cheerful, unpatient and data-dependent liftoff... something for everyone.

FOMC Minutes Preview: Reasons To Be Fearful?

The FOMC surprised the market on March 18 by lowering "the dots" by about 50 basis points. While Yellen gave a fairly exhaustive explanation for this in her speech on March 27 (and Dudley just managed expectations this morning), SocGen notes that market participants hope for more color from the FOMC minutes today. As for the timing of the rates lift-off, the FOMC minutes are unlikely to offer any new insight.

Futures Flat On Minutes Day; Chinese Bubble Spills Into Hong Kong; Biggest Energy M&A Deal In Over A Decade

While US equity futures are largely unchanged, if only ahead of the now daily pre-open market-wide ramp, things in Asia have continued on their bubbly flurry, where China's Shanghai Composite briefly rose above 4000 for the first time since 2008, but it was the surge in the Hong Kong stock market that showed the Chinese bubble is finally spilling over, in the form of a blistering rally on the Hang Seng which rose nearly 4% on immense volume which at 250 billion Hong Kong dollars ($32 billion) was three times the average daily volume over the past year and nearly 20% more than the previous record volume day in October 2007, at the height of the pre-financial crisis bubble.