Monetary Policy

"The Dollar Rally Is Far From Over," Goldman Insists

"We expect the Fed to signal that it wants to continue normalizing policy, which means three hikes this year and four in 2017, with the statement referring to the risks as “nearly balanced,” reverting to phraseology used in October, just before December lift-off. Overall, our sense is that the outcome will be more hawkish than market pricing."

All Eyes On Yellen: Futures Flat Ahead Of Fed Meeting Expected To Usher In More Rate Hikes

Today Janet Yellen and the FOMC will go back to square one and try to reset global expectations unleashed by the ill-fated December rate "policy mistake" hike, when at 2pm the Fed will announce assessment of the economy, even if not rate hike is expected today. Just like in December the Fed will be forced to telegraph that it is hiking rates as a signal of a strengthening US, and global, economy where "risks are balanced" and hope that the subsequent global reaction will not be a rerun of what happened in January and February when confusion about the Fed's intentions led to a global market rout.

Margin Debt Flashes Red As The Fed Cometh

"The issue is not whether margin debt will matter, it is just 'when'. Unfortunately, for many unwitting investors, when that time comes margin debt will matter 'a lot.'" And we suspect The Fed knows it...

This Is What Wall Street Thinks Of China's FX Trading Tax

Last night we reported that the PBoC is now considering a Tobin tax on FX transactions. The follows reports that a series of big name money managers - or, as China calls them “predators,” and “crocodiles” - have placed outsized bets against the yuan. Here's what analysts think of the PBoC's latest move to crush the "speculators."

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Making Sense of Cents

Forex remains to be the largest market in the world and the least understood.  Central banks have more influence on global markets than any other force.  In other words, monetary policy is the ONLY economic indicator(s) investors should be watching, because let's face it, if the Fed raised rates to 10% like they should do and called in all that QE money, stocks would collapse.

But yet Forex remains a mystery, something that someone may have mentioned or you heard about.. wait FX is a TV channel?  or graphics?  a movie?

The Cashless Society - Keynesian "Stability" Vs Trumpian Turmoil

"Keynesianism has always been at war with savings since its principle tenet is that savings are bad, consumption is good. The Keynesian central planning authorities at the Fed and elsewhere would like to see a cashless society because keeping cash can be a form of savings instead of consumption. I think we are headed toward a cashless society unless the public wakes up and begins to protest this... which is why the establishment despises Trump as the figurehead for this awakening...If I were Donald Trump I would also double or triple my personal security detail."

Loretta Lynch And The Government War On Free Speech

A government that believes it can run our lives, run the economy, and run the world will inevitably come to believe it can, and should, have the power to silence its critics. Eliminating the welfare-warfare state is the key to protecting our free speech, and other liberties, from an authoritarian government.

The Narrative 'Fix' Is In - "Bold" Is The New "Buy"

Risk assets are up because "investors reassessed" the ECB announcement. Really? That's what happened? Real world investors stayed up till the wee hours last night and en masse concluded that they had just gotten it completely wrong yesterday? How about this for an alternative explanation: the allocation heads at one or two European mega-insurance firms were informed that they would be supporting risk assets this morning, the Narrative machine got into gear, and real world investors do what they always do, they play the Common Knowledge Game.

"There Won't Be A Wave Of Layoffs," "No Stimulus Is Needed": China Insists That No One Panic

The market is worried about China. Worried about growth, worried about whether Beijing can actually manage to pull off the transition to a consumption-led economic model, worried about the yuan, and perhaps most pressingly, worrried about whether a push to stamp out the excess capacity that's driving the global deflationary supply glut will end up creating an employment crisis. Here to 'reassure" you are People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan and Xiao Yaqing, who oversees the government commission that looks after state assets.

Japan Is "Fixed" - Machine Orders Suddenly Spike By Most In Over 13 Years

The Aussies did it with their employment data (and then admitted it), and now we see Japan's Economic and Social reserch Institute post the most ridiculous macro print ever. Over 4 standard deviations from expectations and almost double the highest expectations, Japan Machinery Orders spiked 15.0% MoM - the biggest since Jan 2003. We presume this means that Japan is "fixed" and there will be no need for additional extraordinarily idiotically experimental monetary policy this week...