Monetary Policy

Krugman Joins Goldman, Summers, World Bank, IMF, & China: Demands No Fed Rate Hike

The growing roar of 'the establishment' crying for help from The Fed should make investors nervous. While your friendly local asset-getherer and TV-talking-head will proclaim how a rate-hike is so positive for the economy and stocks, we wonder why it is that The IMF, The World Bank, Larry Summers (twice), Goldman Sachs, China (twice), and now no lessor nobel-winner than Paul Krugman has demanded that The Fed not hike rates for fear of  - generally speaking - "panic and turmoil," however, as Krugman notes, “I think it would be a terrible mistake to move. But I’m not confident that they won’t make a mistake."

Buiter: Only "Helicopter Money" Can Save The World From The Next Recession

"We believe a global recession scenario has become the most likely global macroeconomic scenario for the next two years or so. Helicopter money drops would be the best instrument to tackle a downturn in all DMs. We expect to see QE #N, where N could become a large integer, as part of the monetary policy response in the US and the UK, and QEE2 in Japan." 

RANSQUAWK BoE Preview: The minutes release is expected to once again show an 8-1 vote split in favour of keeping rates on hold

• All surveyed analysts expect the Bank of England to keep monetary policy unchanged, with the bank rate at 0.5% and the Asset Purchase Facility at GBP 375bln
• Headline UK CPI printed at 0.1% for July, still well below the BoE’s mandated 2% target
• The accompanying minutes release is expected to once again show an 8-1 vote split in favour of keeping rates on hold

Frontrunning: September 9

  • Global stocks rally as investors scent fresh stimulus (Reuters)
  • Japan's Nikkei 225 Rises 7.7% for Biggest Gain Since October 2008 (BBG)
  • China's Stocks Advance for Second Day Amid Stimulus Speculation (BBG)
  • Abe Pledges Corporate Tax Cut as Investments Slump (BBG)
  • U.S. to shift 50 staff to boost office handling Clinton emails (Reuters)
  • Chinese Premier Li Keqiang Says China Doesn't Want a Currency War (BBG)
  • One Thing China Got Right (BBG)

"The World Is Running Low On Interventionist Ammo" SocGen Warns "China Is The Dominant Black Swan"

When it comes to crisis, SocGen notes that there is an abundance of case studies; and against the backdrop of the uncertainty shock delivered by China and the subsequent market tumult, market participants have been looking to the history books for clues as to what could happen next. While individual crises create their own risks, SocGen warns, the overriding risk  is that markets are taking less comfort today from the idea that central banks may step in with further QE-style liquidity injections to save the world.

Developed Market Stocks & Bonds Have Never (Ever) Been This Expensive

Thanks to the new normal world of extremely loose monetary policy and extraordinary accumulations of financial assets by Central Banks, Deutsche Bank finds that we live in a period not of selectively expensive global asset prices, but of record "expensiveness" across developed market bonds, stocks, and real estate.

Another Useless G20 Pow-Wow

One can only hope they will continue to remain “behind schedule”. Haven’t these hapless planners done enough damage yet?

Futures Soar After Dramatic Chinese Last Hour Intervention Scrambles To Mask Latest Terrible Trade Data

The last time we looked at Chinese stocks, just a few hours ago, they were on pace to close back under 3000, following the latest collapse in trade, where in August exports dropped 5.5% (last -8.3%) while imports tumbled -13.8% in dollar terms (worse than the -8.1% prior). As the Reuters chart below shows, this was the 10th month in a row of declines and the worst stretch since the 2008 crisis, confirming China will need far more currency devaluation to stabilize the trade pain. And then Chinese authorities intervened with gusto, waiting until the start of the afternoon session, at which point a massive buying orgy ensued, and pushed the SHCOMP from down more than 2% to close at the day highs, up some 2.9%!

698K Native-Born Americans Lost Their Job In August: Why This Suddenly Is The Most Important Jobs Chart

Over the past year, some have asked - is there any labor-related chart that matters any more? The answer: a resounding yes, only it is none of the conventional charts that algos and sometimes humans look at. The one chart that matters more than ever,has little to nothing to do with the Fed's monetary policy, but everything to do with the November 2016 presidential elections in which the topic of immigration, both legal and illegal, is shaping up to be the most rancorous, contentious and divisive.

Chinese Stocks Extend Losses As PBOC Weakens Yuan First Time A Week

Following Monday's roller coaster of manipulated market machinations, perhaps China's leadership will keep its mouth shut tonight and just "monitor" the situation. Japan's opening 300-point flash-smash has now been eviscerated back to unchanged, Chinese stocks look set to open lower as Margin debt rose for the first time in 13 days (likely thanks to CSRC telling retail investors to "come back in, the water's fine.") As markets anxiously await China's trade data - which will either confirm the collapse or confirm the manipulation (given the utter devastation in Taiwan and South Korea trade data), the PBOC fixes Yuan weaker after 5 straight days of stronger fixes and injected another CNY150 billion in 7-day rev repo.

In Gold We Trust - 2015 Edition

Monetary history, staggering mountains of debt, demographic problems, metrics relevant to the gold market, central bank debauchery and currency debasement in all their terrible glory, and even the beer price of gold – the latest Incrementum "In Gold We Trust"chartbook has it all...