Monetary Policy

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What Really Happened At The SNB Yesterday: One Person's Take





At the hastily arranged press conference on January 15, SNB's president, Jordan, looked like a red-faced school boy caught with the hand in the cookie jar. None of his explanations made any sense. The SNB was clearly caught by surprise itself and didn't have time to make up some better lies. But why this sudden change of heart, throwing in the towel causing book losses of somewhere around CHF 75bn  (>10% GDP)? Some theories...

 
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"We Have Been Captured... We Are Parented, Not Represented"





Self-government is the gift our founding fathers made possible and out of lack of respect for the sacrifices of the past, the constitutional rights of the present and the freedoms of future Americans we allow it to be traded for a comfortable existence.  We must stop and truly understand the concept of self-government as it was meant to be and then mentally reconcile that with the current state of our government.  We are parented not represented.  We are enslaved with encroaching laws that are demeaning to rational self sufficient adults.   And by a legislative body that feeds from our bosom, fights with our fists and has buried us in debt to a foreign body who they sold the rights to our currency.  How is this in any way a self-governed society?  We have been captured by a group of fraudulent citizens who control our money, our military and have desecrated our constitution.

 
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Japan Set To Surpass China As America's Largest Creditor





When it comes to America's foreign creditors, only two names matter (except for Belgium whose Euroclear service continues to be used by an anonymous entity(s) to buy up US Treasurys): Japan and China. And it is in the Treasury buying and selling dynamics of these two entities that we can see how Japan's monetary policy has impacted its holdings of US paper, which just hit a new all time high of $1,242 billion, while on the other hand Beijing's official holdings of Treasurys have remained unchanged since the summer of 2011, and which in July declined yet another month to just $1,250 billion, the lowest since January 2013.

 
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About That "Strong" Dollar





At the moment, the US dollar is choice. This isn’t necessarily a vote of confidence for the dollar. It’s more like a vote against all the others. If big institutional investors must choose between bankrupt America and bankrupt Europe, right now they choose America. But this is a decision that can and will be changed in an instant. Just look at the Swiss franc...

 
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The First Lesson In Dealing With Central Bankers





"The first lesson is never trust a central banker when he or she makes a commitment or gives guidance..."

 
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The End Of Fed QE Didn’t Start Market Madness, It Ended It





What we see now is the recovery of price discovery, and therefore the functioning economy, and it shouldn’t be a big surprise that it doesn’t come in a smooth transition. Six years is a long time. Moreover, it was never just QE that distorted the markets, there was – and is – the ultra-low interest rate policy developed nations’ central banks adhere to like it was the gospel, and there’s always been the narrative of economic recovery just around the corner that the politico/media system incessantly drowned the world in. That the QE madness ended with the decapitation of the price of oil seems only fitting.

 
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The Greek Bank Runs Have Begun: Two Greek Banks Request Emergency Liquidity Assistance





The bad news is that as we also speculated, and as Greek officials tried to cover up as usual, the Greeks have resumed doing what they do best any time their country is facing a grand crisis: walking to the bank and withdrawing what little deposits they have left. Or rather running to the bank. Which brings us back to the topic of the Emergency Liquidity Assistnace, which as Kathimerini reported moments ago, at least two Greek systemic banks have reportedly resorted to, indicating that the liquidity situation in Greece is once again as dire as it was in the depth of the European collapse.

 
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Blast From The (Recent) Past: Jim Grant Nails The SNB Decision





"we venture that the SNB will sooner or later be forced to permit the franc to appreciate and thus to enrich the holders of low-priced, three-year call options on the Swiss/euro exchange rate. It's a long shot, to be sure--the options are cheap for a reason--but we judge that the prospective reward is worth the obvious risk." - Jim Grant, Sept 14th, 2014

 
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Muppet Murder: Goldman's "Top #6 Trade Reco For 2015" Crushed, Stopped Out After 16.5% Loss In One Day





It's a one-two for the muppet mauling masters at Goldman Sachs, who first crucified anyone who listened to the Buy Best Buy reco from Tuesday, and now, those who put their money into Top Trade #6 for 2015 by the Goldman uber traders, which was to Short CFH/SEK - obviously on margin - just got crucified after the unlevered pair just crashed 16.5%, stopping out those who listened to Goldman and sold CHFSEK to Goldman's prop, pardon flow, traders, and leading to a complete loss on margin, unless of course one has an infinite balance sheet.

 
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SNB Decision: "Absolute Idiocy" Per Gartman Or "Rationality Itself" Per Saxo





This morning's decision by the Swiss National Bank has polarized the investing community. From the 'smartest men in the room' to the 'most renowned newsletter writers in the world', the reactions could not be more different...

 
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Best Buy Is Worst Buy: Stock Crashes After Goldman "Buy" Upgrade





Another day, another Kermit kicks the can. .

 
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So Much Changes In 48 Hours





January 12, 2015: "We took stock of the situation less than a month ago, we looked again at all the parameters and we are convinced that the minimum exchange rate must remain the cornerstone of our monetary policy," SNB's Jean-Pierre Danthine.

January 15, 2015: "Recently, divergences between the monetary policies of the major currency areas have increased significantly – a trend that is likely to become even more pronounced. The euro has depreciated considerably against the US dollar and this, in turn, has caused the Swiss franc to weaken against the US dollar. In these circumstances, the SNB concluded that enforcing and maintaining the minimum exchange rate for the Swiss franc against the euro is no longer justified."

 
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"It's Carnage" - Swiss Franc Soars Most Ever After SNB Abandons EURCHF Floor; Macro Hedge Funds Crushed





Over a decade ago, George Soros took on the Bank of England, and won. Less than two hours ago the Swiss National Bank took on virtually every single macro hedge fund, the vast majority of which were short the Swiss Franc and crushed them, when it announced, first, that it would go further into NIRP, pushing its interest rate on deposit balances even more negative from -0.25% to -0.75%, a move which in itself would have been unprecedented and, second, announcing that the 1.20 EURCHF floor it had instituted in September 2011, the day gold hit its all time nominal high, was no more. What happened next was truly shock and awe as algo after algo saw their EURCHF 1.1999 stops hit, and moments thereafter the EURCHF pair crashed to less then 0.75, margining out virtually every single long EURCHF position, before finally rebounding to a level just above 1.00, which is where it was trading just before the SNB instituted the currency floor over three years ago.

 
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5 Key Takeaways From The ECJ's Kinda Sorta 'Thumbs Up' To Draghi





An adviser to the Luxembourg-based European Court of Justice (ECJ) has delivered a tentative thumbs-up to an ECB bond plan unveiled in September 2012 that was aimed at countering euro break-up fears. Dow Jones explains the key five takeaways from the court's findings...

 
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Market Wrap: Copper Plummets; Euro Plunges To 9 Year Low On Euro-Court's OMT Ruling, Futures Down





'After two days of sharp intraday and vicious reversals, the BTFD algos are suspiciously missing overnight, when as reported earlier, a bout of margin calls and stop loss selling meant not crude but copper would crash in today's episode of "guess the crashing commodity", on what Goldman dubbed a Chinese demand collapse which for those confused is different than an OPEC supply glut, and is also the reason why the entire commodity complex is trading at a decade plus low. As a result copper plunged to a five and a half year low, in the process halting the market due to the severity of the plunge. But the big event overnight was the farcical announcement by the European top court, which as everyone expected, rejected the German rejection of the OMT as illegal, stating it was not only legal (with certain conditions) but greenlighting the way for the ECB's QE in one week, a move which sent the EURUSD crashing to a fresh 9 year low!

 
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