Monetary Policy

This Is What Wall Street Thinks Of China's FX Trading Tax

Last night we reported that the PBoC is now considering a Tobin tax on FX transactions. The follows reports that a series of big name money managers - or, as China calls them “predators,” and “crocodiles” - have placed outsized bets against the yuan. Here's what analysts think of the PBoC's latest move to crush the "speculators."

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Making Sense of Cents

Forex remains to be the largest market in the world and the least understood.  Central banks have more influence on global markets than any other force.  In other words, monetary policy is the ONLY economic indicator(s) investors should be watching, because let's face it, if the Fed raised rates to 10% like they should do and called in all that QE money, stocks would collapse.

But yet Forex remains a mystery, something that someone may have mentioned or you heard about.. wait FX is a TV channel?  or graphics?  a movie?

The Cashless Society - Keynesian "Stability" Vs Trumpian Turmoil

"Keynesianism has always been at war with savings since its principle tenet is that savings are bad, consumption is good. The Keynesian central planning authorities at the Fed and elsewhere would like to see a cashless society because keeping cash can be a form of savings instead of consumption. I think we are headed toward a cashless society unless the public wakes up and begins to protest this... which is why the establishment despises Trump as the figurehead for this awakening...If I were Donald Trump I would also double or triple my personal security detail."

Loretta Lynch And The Government War On Free Speech

A government that believes it can run our lives, run the economy, and run the world will inevitably come to believe it can, and should, have the power to silence its critics. Eliminating the welfare-warfare state is the key to protecting our free speech, and other liberties, from an authoritarian government.

The Narrative 'Fix' Is In - "Bold" Is The New "Buy"

Risk assets are up because "investors reassessed" the ECB announcement. Really? That's what happened? Real world investors stayed up till the wee hours last night and en masse concluded that they had just gotten it completely wrong yesterday? How about this for an alternative explanation: the allocation heads at one or two European mega-insurance firms were informed that they would be supporting risk assets this morning, the Narrative machine got into gear, and real world investors do what they always do, they play the Common Knowledge Game.

"There Won't Be A Wave Of Layoffs," "No Stimulus Is Needed": China Insists That No One Panic

The market is worried about China. Worried about growth, worried about whether Beijing can actually manage to pull off the transition to a consumption-led economic model, worried about the yuan, and perhaps most pressingly, worrried about whether a push to stamp out the excess capacity that's driving the global deflationary supply glut will end up creating an employment crisis. Here to 'reassure" you are People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan and Xiao Yaqing, who oversees the government commission that looks after state assets.

Japan Is "Fixed" - Machine Orders Suddenly Spike By Most In Over 13 Years

The Aussies did it with their employment data (and then admitted it), and now we see Japan's Economic and Social reserch Institute post the most ridiculous macro print ever. Over 4 standard deviations from expectations and almost double the highest expectations, Japan Machinery Orders spiked 15.0% MoM - the biggest since Jan 2003. We presume this means that Japan is "fixed" and there will be no need for additional extraordinarily idiotically experimental monetary policy this week...

What Ray Dalio Thinks Of The "Trump Phenomenon"

"Basically what happens is there is a part in the cycle where there is tension.  And when you get to this phase of the cycle, there is tension between the haves and have-nots and also there's a frustration with government... We have a situation in which emotionally charged individuals, who may not be well informed in choosing leader, might select leaders who are not capable and are emotional themselves.  If one group ends up fighting against another group, it is going to be bad."

Can Draghi's "Kitchen Sink" Beat Recessionary Earnings?

Despite ongoing Central Bank interventions which boost asset prices and acts as a huge wealth transfer tax from the middle class to the rich, corporate earnings are a direct reflection of what is happening in the actual economy. Wall Street has always extrapolated earnings growth indefinitely into the future without taking into account the effects of the normal economic and business cycles. This was the same in 2000 and 2007. Unfortunately, the economy neither forgets nor forgives.

A Whiff Of Panic & The Pretense Of Europe's Monetary Cranks

There once was a time when economists would have been in an uproar upon witnessing the shenanigans of today’s central bankers. Nowadays they are not only acquiescing to them, they are actively demanding more and more intervention. Instead of being the voice of reason warning of the dangers such policies harbor, they have become cheerleaders for them. It is only a very small consolation that they will eventually be discredited. The cost will be extremely high.

Deutsche Bank: Negative Rates Confirm The Failure Of Globalization

"The demise of positive interest rates may be nothing more than the global economy reacting to a chronic oversupply of goods through the impact of globalization including the opening up of formerly closed economies as well as ongoing technological progress." - Deutsche Bank