Monetary Policy

Fed Warns Stocks Are "Vulnerable", Forward Valuations "Well Above" Norms

In what we are sure will be aggressively spun by the mainstream media, The Fed's full monetary policy report dropped a notable tapebomb this morning...

*FED: STOCKS' FORWARD P/E RATIOS WELL ABOVE THREE-DECADE MEDIAN
*FED: STOCKS VULNERABLE TO A TERM PREMIUM RETURN TO NORMAL

Remember, "don't fight The Fed" unless of course she says "sell."

Stocks, Sterling Rise As "Brexit" Fears Forgotten; Dollar Drops Ahead Of Yellen Speech

Tuesday's overnight price action has been a continuation of yesterday's Brexit relief rally, as investors focused on the two latest polls favorable to Remain in Thursday's referendum (while ignoring the YouGov poll which gave Leave a small lead), and hoping the doom and gloom by George Soros will convince the undecideds to vote against Leaving. As a result, global stocks continued their advance while pound extending the biggest rally since 2008.

"Whatever It Takes" Wasn't Enough

Bond manager Jeffrey Gundlach made headlines this week with the comments “central banks are losing control.” I would suggest that central bankers actually lost control back in 2012. Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” pledge actually amounted to concerted central bank intervention to shield global markets and economies from the intensifying forces of the downside of a historic Credit Cycle. The global Credit boom persevered for a few more years, right along with historic market distortions and economic maladjustment. Downside risks have grown significantly.

Imagine...

Now imagine what might happen next...

Fed Congressional Testimony Preview: Janet Yellen's Shot At Redemption

Google "The Fed" and the search engine will offer to autofill your query with "surrenders," reflecting market concerns that The Fed has abandoned its recently more upbeat take on the domestic economy. During this week's semiannual monetary policy report to Congress, the success/failure of this appearance will hinge on the tone she chooses to strike and the conviction investors hear in her testimony and in Q&A. With so much chatter about the Fed “Losing credibility” with markets, this will be an important chance for Chair Yellen to set the record straight.

Morgan Stanley Asks If This Is Just A "1937 Redux"

"Premature tightening of macro policies means risks of a relapse. In 1936, the Fed doubled the reserve requirements for banks and the Treasury began to sterilise gold inflows, slowing the growth of high-powered money. Fiscal policy was tightened, with the fiscal deficit narrowing significantly from 5.1% of GDP in 1936 to 0.1% in 1938. The premature and sharp pace of tightening of policies led to a double-dip in the economy, resulting in a relapse into recession and deflation in 1938."

Global Stocks Soar, Pound Surges Most Since 2008 As Brexit Odds Tumble

Global equities rallied and the pound strengthened the most since 2008, soaring by 300 pips since the Friday close as polls signaled the campaign for the U.K to stay in the European Union was gaining momentum. Haven assets including the yen, U.S. Treasuries and gold slumped. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index surged by the most since February as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced with S&P 500 futures.  Haven assets including the yen, U.S. Treasuries and gold slumped.

"We Have Reached The Point That Keynes Warned Of In His General Theory"

"We have arguably reached the point that Keynes warned of in his General Theory where demand for money and credit to satisfy what he labeled “non-speculative” motives has been more than satisfied...  At this point it is likely central bankers are “pushing on a string,” positively affecting prices for the financial markets’ flavor of the month but doing nothing for actual economic activity."

Head Of India Central Bank Unexpectedly Announces Intention To Leave

The worst case outcome for many Indian investors came true this morning when head of the RBI said he would return to academia when his term ends on Sept. 4.  Rajan was generous in his parting words, saying government reforms, together with steps by regulators will lead to greater job growth, prosperity for our people. Rajan said that “I will, of course, always be available to serve my country when needed" and added that “I am confident my successor will take us to new heights with your help."

"The Fed Has Failed" - A Disturbing New Warning From Bank Of America

"Central banks have lost the “War against Deflation”. They have failed to stimulate animal spirits depressed by the 4D’s of excess Debt, financial Deleveraging, aging Demographics and technological Disruption. This changes if Quantitative Failure spreads from Europe & Japan to the US. A rise in US bank CDS and/or a dive in assets related to consumer & housing credit would be very negative for global asset prices in our view. Note the new whispers of a peak in the US consumer credit cycle which, if true, at a time of zero rates in an $18 trillion, consumer-led economy would be concerning."