As flyover America has been suffering economically for many years, these Americans were immune to the oligarchy’s anti-Trump propaganda. However, everyone else in the country was taken in by the propaganda - liberals, progressives, the remnant of the leftwing - and the lies continue...
"The half-life of whatever OPEC does or doesn’t do is measured in days... weeks at most... Dollar up is bad. Dollar down is good. I don’t know how to say it more plainly than that, and all the Belief in the world about tax reform and repealing Dodd-Frank and all that doesn’t change this reality... Maybe you see that and maybe you don’t. I can promise you, though, that China sees it."
We, and the rest of the world, are patiently hanging around, waiting to see if the Federal Reserve wakes up to what’s happening to dollar liquidity, and the threat it poses to the global economy and to its own (glacially slow) tightening cycle.
"Yes, the parallels [with Reagan] are certainly there... I’ve been in touch with the Trump team. I’ve even written a book about Trump.... But those guys are going to be surprised. They just have no idea what they’re up against....I’ve seen it happen. There are alligators in that swamp."
The market barely had time to respond to today's surprising rate hike by the Turkish central bank, when an even more unexpected development took place in the European Parliament which voted overwhelmingly to temporarily freeze talks on Turkey’s bid to join the European Union, citing deteriorating human rights and democratic standards under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rule.
Oh how the Fed must long for the days of yore, when it was feasible to make policy in a domestic vacuum. But the reality of it is, if the rest of the world’s economic vulnerabilities and systemic fault lines are laid bare by this December’s hike, Fed officials’ words won’t amount to much more than trash talk.
"US will likely implement serious fiscal stimulus but without Fed QE. Europe will have no meaningful fiscal stimulus but lots of QE. Japan is a hybrid as it will have monetary policy that easily allows for more expansionary domestic fiscal policy. However there is some evidence to suggest that we’ll effectively have cross border helicopter money."
"2016 has been a landmark year as we seem to have reached a point where the faster the plates are spun the more the unintended short-term consequences... the global financial system remains broken and extremely fragile. Secular stagnation trends are everywhere. The world has too big a debt burden for the current growth environment.."
"What if consensus is wrong: what if rates are rising due to the end of Quantitative Easing and not because of reflation/escape velocity on growth? Rates then rise without growth, perhaps even without much inflation. Indeed, rates started rising back in August, on momentous shifts in policy by BoJ (forced by capacity constraints and collateral damage). Such scenario is not good for equities, contrary to what currently believed by markets."
FX traders are pricing in as big a potential disruption event for Italy's referendum as they did (correctly) for the Brexit vote. So-called 'currency-vigilantes' are buying EURUSD protection across the Dec 4th date of the vote in size as Italian bond spreads (over Bunds) push to 30-month highs.
"Things have not suddenly become awesome over the course of the past week... It is very easy to be sucked into the gushingly positive narratives and often unsupported narratives put forth by the financial media. This is particularly true when the move in asset prices can make minutes seem like days and hours seem like months. Excessive market valuations, weak internal measures, and a deteriorating backdrop has historically been a “wicked brew” for investor outcomes."