Monetary Policy

Key Events In The Coming Vacation Week: All About Inflation

With the traditional post-payrolls market lull setting in, and most trading desks taking a week or two off, it will be a relatively quiet week with attention turning to inflation data with releases in the US, China, Norway & Switzerland, a key factor as central banks consider if/when to tighten in the near future.

World Stocks Hit Another All-Time High As Crude, Treasurys Drop

World stocks hit a new record high on Monday, as U.S. index futures followed Asian stocks on better-than-expected company earnings and strong US jobs data deflected attention from the rising geopolitical tension over North Korea's nuclear program. European stocks traded near session lows while Crude oil prices fall. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed.

Yanking The Bank Of Japan's Chain - "It's Basic Math, Stupid!"

Aside from a generation of GDP growth stagnation, Japan also has another important distinction. The country is serving as the canary in the coal mine for what happens to an economy that has a rapidly aging population, burdensome debt obligations and stagnating growth.

Futures Flat As Payrolls Loom, Dollar Slide Continues

It took stocks only a few minute to "price in" the latest political shock out of Washington, with the Emini trading 0.07% higher this morning on news that Mueller now has a grand jury, while European and Asian shares are little changed as investors await the looming July jobs report.

The Fed Gave Wall Street A Bomb, And The Taxpayers Are Paying Ransom

In 2016, this policy paid $16 billion to big banks, a number that will likely rise as the interest rate payments go up with every increase in the federal funds rate...So this is the true policy issue going forward, how do you stop the taxpayer subsidy to Wall Street while avoiding lighting the fuse to Bernanke’s inflation bomb?

RBA Preview: Beware Of Doves, Leaks And Stop Hunts

FX traders will want to keep a close eye on sharp AUDUSD moves seconds before the announcement: on at least one occasion, most famously in April 2015, the RBA statement was leaked in advance, with the entire currency move taking place roughly 7 seconds before the official release.

Here's The Real Reason The Fed Is Making Absurd Monetary Decisions

"There have always been lags between the time of a policy shift and evidence of that shift in the broader economy. However, in a heavily indebted economy, with the velocity of money likely falling further, and policy rates close to the zero bound, the Fed’s current capabilities are decidedly asymmetric."

A Phillips Curveball

"...the best-fit line is actually upward-sloping...in other words, the Phillips curve is badly broken..."

4 Financial Components To Improved Russian Relations

"With the U.S. preparing to confront China and go to war with North Korea, Russia is an indispensable ally for the U.S... There are huge implications on capital markets as these hegemonic powers continue to edge toward war..."