Monetary Policy

Fearing the size of Mario Draghi's bazooka (so to speak), Sweden's Riksbank has just expanded QE by SEK65 billion, marking the fourth expansion in nine months and serving notice that the beggar-thy-neighbor, monetary madness gripping DM central banks isn't likely to dissipate anytime soon.

We would say today's main event is the culmination of the Fed's two-day meeting and the announcement slated for 2 pm this afternoon, however with the 90 economists polled by Bloomberg all expecting no rate hike, today's Fed decision also happens to be the least anticipated in years (which may be just the time for the Fed to prove it is not driven by market considerations and shock everybody, alas that will not happen). And considering how bad the economic data has gone in recent months, not to mention the recent easing, hints of easing, and outright return to currency war by other banks, the Fed is once again trapped and may not be able to hike in December or perhaps ever, now that the USD is again surging not due to its actions but due to what other central banks are doing.

The weakness seen in world economic activity is partly the result of the lack of a real purge of the financial system in 2008. It has become unimaginable to let entire parts of the system collapse, and the titling of some financial institutions as “systemic” is part of this logic. Policymakers attempting to keep unhealthy economic and financial institutions alive are making a mistake. The very essence of capitalism lies in the process of creative destruction. What we see here is not a way out of the crisis. Instead, we are on the edge of a new financial disaster.

We have heard many explanations for the torrid market rally since last September, ranging from the rational - short squeeze - to the generic - "bad news is good news under central planning" to the deranged - "ignore the news, the U.S. economy is actually stronger and China is recovering." And now, courtesy of the U.S. Treasury's Office of Financial Research, here is the official explanation from the government itself.

To the extent the Federal Reserve decides to increase interest rates, it should be apparent that such a move would be inconsistent with their prior actions. In fact, it may likely be a desperate effort to re-load the monetary policy gun as opposed to a signal of domestic economic strength. Not only is this a departure from the past, this would lead many to question the Fed’s motives. It is worth keeping in mind that blind trust and confidence in the Fed has propelled many markets much higher than fundamentals justify. The bottom line is that NIM and the Taylor Rule-adjusted curve are both flashing warning signs of economic recession, while the traditional yield curve signal is waving the all clear flag.

If this is indeed a rerun of the post-LTCM/pre first tech bubble days, then oil is about to soar by 150%

The inherent problem of "eternal bullishness" is the "wilfull blindness" to the underlying data in an effort to chase short-term returns. This leads to the unfortunate problem of being "all-in" on every hand which has a devastating consequence when a mean reverting event occurs. In the end, it does not matter IF you are "bullish" or "bearish." The reality is that both "bulls" and "bears" are owned by the "broken clock" syndrome during the full-market cycle. However, what is grossly important in achieving long-term investment success is not necessarily being "right" during the first half of the cycle, but by not being "wrong" during the second half.

It was only a couple of months ago that a rapidly rising dollar was pushing the global economy closer to a new crisis. It seems unlikely that the conditions that made a rapidly rising dollar a problem in August have all been resolved by October. Those who bought stocks last week in response to hints of more easing from Draghi – and the rate cut in China – may find themselves in the same position as Pavlov’s dogs, wondering why no meal follows the ringing of the bell.

In our Chinese stock market wrap following Friday's unexpected rate cut, which saw the Shanghai Composite storm out of the gate, we said that "we would not be surprised to see China's stocks sliding back into the red very shortly as "sell the news" concerns return, and as the increasingly more addicted "markets" demand even more liquidity from central banks just to stay unchanged, let alone rise to new all time highs." Sure enough, with just minutes to go before the close, the SHCOMP wiped out all its daily gains and was set for a red close had it not been for the "national team" miraculous last minute intervention which was inevitable after Friday's PBOC rate cut, and which lifted the composite 0.5% into the green as the euphoria was rapidly evaporating.

"It could simply be 1998/99 all over again. After all, a “speculative blow-off” in asset prices is one logical conclusion to a world dominated by central bank liquidity, technological disruption & wealth inequality. What worked back then? What rose from the rubble of 1998? How would one position for one final melt-up on Wall Street..."

Doing as Yellen and her counterparts demand is the biggest risk of all. The Yellen Doctrine requires that central banks be both correct and able, abilities that have been (and can only be) in utter short supply. Her view would show more proactive and effective central bank management where only reactive and impromptu, last minute white-knuckling has abounded. Central banks have been in the past year only holding on for dear life, which is where obscurity has been their benefit. In the end, however, it will bring about their own downfall as it only serves to make matters worse. Yellen wants the central bank to be viewed as almost godlike, but they continually reveal themselves weak, deceptive and ineffectual; eschewing all long run sustainability in order to just make it through one day at a time.

The powers that be have lost control. After almost a century of playing the Wizard of Oz, the curtain is disintegrating. Institutions to ensure control, stability and prosperity are failing. People and markets were not to be trusted and most of these institutions were established to protect against such freedom. Bureaucrats, central planners and big governments were to be the answers for a better world. The damage of nearly a century of this nonsense is suddenly becoming evident. Things fall apart is characterized by institutions that no longer are trusted or believed in.

Year after year, economic growth collapses from "hope" to "nope."

• China export trade: -8.8% year to date
• China import trade: -17.6% year to date
• Industrial output crude steel: -3% year to date
• Cement output: -3.2% year over year
• Industrial output electricity: -3.1% year over year

and so on...

The previous Bubble was of the Fed’s making, and our central bank lost control. It became a Hobson’s Choice issue in the eyes of the Fed, and they fully accommodated the Bubble. These days, the Fed and global central bankers face a similar but much more precarious Bubble Dynamic: The Fed specifically targeted higher securities market prices as its prevailing post-mortgage finance Bubble (“helicopter money”) reflationary mechanism. This ensured that the Fed would again be unwilling to impose any monetary restraint before it would then become too risky to remove accommodation (Einstein’s definition of insanity?). In concert, global central bankers now aggressively accommodate financial Bubbles.