Monetary Policy

The Key Things To Look For In Today's FOMC Minutes

While inflation will likely be a heavily debated topic, given recent Fedspeak it appears that most voting members are looking through some of the recent weakness and prefer to continue the "gradual" removal of monetary accommodation, in line with speculation that the Fed is no longer data dependent and may have lowered its inflation target outright.

Key Events In The Coming Week: CPI, Retail Sales And FOMC Minutes

The key economic releases this week are the CPI and retail sales reports on Friday. Additionally, the minutes from the September FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech by Chair Yellen on Sunday.

Global Markets Bounce As Germany, China, Spain Lift World Stocks, Turkey Crash Ignored

S&P futures rebounded and edged higher as European stocks gain, led by Spanish shares after mass demonstrations in favor of Spanish unity and speculation Catalonia may back down on unilateral independence demands, while Chinese mainland stocks reopened catching up to gains missed during the holiday week following last weekend's RRR cut.

FX Week Ahead: Discretion And Common Sense Not Easy For "The Machines"

Core CPI is expected to rise from 1.7% to 1.8% as oil prices are expected to help lift the headline rate through 2.0%, but for the purposes of monetary policy current levels are strong enough to keep the Fed on their normalisation path.  Equity markets need a reality check, and it won't come from the level of balance sheet reduction now under way.

Why Small States Are Better

"...in small states the government is closer to its citizens and by that better observable and controllable by the populace..."

Goldman Raises December Rate Hike Odds To 80%

"... The employment report appears strong on net after taking into account hurricane effects, given the drop in the unemployment rate to a new cycle low and the upward revisions to average hourly earnings. We increased our Fed probabilities, with subjective odds of a December hike at 80% (vs. 75% previously)."

Dollar Surge Continues Ahead Of Jobs Report; Europe Dips As Catalan Fears Return

World stocks eased back from record highs and fell for the first time in eight days, as jitters about Catalonia’s independence push returned while bets on higher U.S. interest rates sent the dollar to its highest since mid August; S&P 500 futures were modestly in the red ahead of hurricane-distorted nonfarm payrolls data