European stocks declined for first session in five ahead of Wednesday's Dutch elections and Fed rate hike announcement. Fed concerns also dragged down Asian shares and S&P futures, while the dollar rose. Crude oil has ended its six-day drop. The pound tumbled 0.8% to the lowest since mid-January in a delayed reaction after Theresa May won permission to trigger the country’s departure from the EU.
"We reiterate our view that Oil is defying gravity at current levels and is set to revisit lows in the not so distant future, due to overwhelming structural factors such as exponential technologies, shale oil/shale gas/nat gas, substitution effects. Long-term prospects have little bearing in the short-term for price-discovery, but do provide a magnet for prices over time."
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A pivotal, catalyst-filled week for global markets is now underway as investors brace for the second US interest rate hike in 2 quarter, a Dutch election, the expiration of the US debt ceiling deal, the imminent invoking of Article 50 by Theresa May, the first G20 finance ministers' meeting of the Trump era and perhaps the disclosure of Trump's proposed budget.
"It is surely one of the primary reasons why many if not most people have so much trouble accepting the trouble the economy is in... despite asset price levels and even record debt, all those prove is just how disconnected those places have become from what used to be an efficient way to redistribute financial resources."
European and Asian shares rise along with a jump in S&P futures which are pointing to a solidly green open on US payrolls day. The dollar, trading somewhat weaker against the euro was stronger against the yen, and was on track for its firth week of gains, while the rout in global Treasuries continued following a Mario Draghi conference that was interpreted as more hawkish than expected.
While rising interest rates may not “initially” impact asset prices, it is a far different story to suggest that they won’t. In fact, there have been absolutely ZERO times in history that the Federal Reserve has begun an interest rate hiking campaign that has not eventually led to a negative outcome.
Moments ago the ECB kept all three rates on hold, however in a dovish addition, it kept its current forward guidance which some analysts had expected may be scrapped, by noting that "the Governing Council continues to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases."
Little is expected from the rate decision itself at 1245GMT with analysts firmly expecting the central bank to stand pat on rates. With regards to the press conference, any indications that the ECB are taking a more neutral stance or that the ECB are beginning to think about curtailing existing policy given recent economic development, is likely to be seen as a hawkish factor for European assets.