Monetary Policy

Kuroda Defends BOJ Credibility, Mocks Fed And IMF Economists

This past Saturday October 8th, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko “Peter Pan” Kuroda delivered some prepared remarks on its new QQE with yield control (see here and here) at the Brookings Institute in Washington DC. The conference was attended by "luminaries" like Jeffries’ David Zervos, Princeton economist and Hillary supporter Alan Blinder, as well as many members of the press.

Recession Now... Or Depression Later

Currently economists and market watchers roughly fall into two camps: Those who believe that the Federal Reserve must begin raising interest rates now so that it will have enough rate cutting firepower to fight the next recession, and those who believe that raising rates now will simply precipitate an immediate recession and force the Fed into battle without the tools it has traditionally used to stimulate growth. Both camps are delusional, but for different reasons.

Why Hillary Clinton Is Not Like Edward Snowden

In an election year where libertarians have reason to fear every candidate on the ballot, public calls for Hillary Clinton to be held accountable for her obvious violations of the law are a rare bright spot.

Aussie Property Bubble On A Scale Like No Other

The size of the Australian property bubble is old news. What is less well understood is how such a large and sustained bubble has distorted the Australian political economy. 

Global Stocks Decline On Samsung Woes; Rising Dollar Pressures Oil

Global markets and US equity futures fell on Samsung Galaxy Note 7 contagion concern, while the dollar rose to its strongest level in 11 weeks and U.S. bonds declined as investors boosted wagers that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.

Goldman Tells Clients To Go To Cash As "Growth Shocks" Are Coming

"In the recent environment of low volatility, and with high valuations across assets, we are inclined to keep cash reserves to take advantage of more attractive entry points in case of shocks. Potential ‘growth shocks’ continue to loom until year-end as political risks remain elevated, given the upcoming US presidential elections and Italian referendum, and the UK government’s plan to trigger Article 50 by March 2017."

Key Events In The Coming Week

In the US focus will be on the market's reaction to the second presidential debate, FOMC Minutes but also retail sales, import and producer prices and Michigan sentiment. We also hear from various Fed speakers throughout the week, and Chair Yellen gives a keynote speech on Friday.

A Mile-High House Of Cards

The mass media and establishment economists don’t dare call it a depression. But a depression it is.

Ray Dalio Warns A 1% Rise In Yields Would Lead To Trillions In Losses

"... it would only take a 100 basis point rise in Treasury bond yields to trigger the worst price decline in bonds since the 1981 bond market crash. And since those interest rates are embedded in the pricing of all investment assets, that would send them all much lower."