Monetary Policy

Frontrunning: October 7

  • Pound struggles to recover after plunging 6% in 2 minutes (FT)
  • Flash Crash of the Pound Baffles Traders With Algorithms Being Blamed (BBG)
  • Pound Plummets Against Dollar in Chaotic Trading (WSJ)
  • Two-Minute Mystery Pound Rout Puts Spotlight on Robot Trades (BBG)
  • U.S. nonfarm payroll job growth seen pushing case for Fed hikes (Reuters)
  • Qatar won't sell Deutsche Bank shares, might buy more (Reuters)

Deutsche Bank "Shocked" At "Disorderly, Dramatic" Pound Flash Crash

According to Deutsche Bank, the GBP move has been "shocking", and it will only get worse. The German bank's FX analyst George Saravelos writes in a note to clients that Deutsche Bank expects the pound to revisit lows seen during the Asia session and forecasts GBP/USD to trade at 1.15 by next year.

GoldCore's picture

Gold forecasting is a mugs game at the best of times but given the uncertain geo-political situation, the fragile banking system and the very strong fundamentals for gold, it is hard to argue with Barnabas Gan of OCBC  or BMI. Gold should be meaningfully higher in the coming months and into 2017 as investors diversify into gold. Or rather we are likely to see dollars, euros, pounds and other fiat currencies continue to be devalued versus gold.

As Gold Crashes, Gartman Has A Theory What Is Behind It

"Tuesday’s sell-off did look like liquidation rather than fundamentally warranted selling. This view is further supported by the fact that the open interest in the COMEX futures has fallen by more than 4% this week, suggestive strongly of forced liquidation and a throwing up of the hands… and of the stuff in one’s stomach."

What Bridgewater's Ray Dalio Told The New York Fed

  • this isn’t a normal business cycle and we are likely in an environment of abnormally slow growth
  • the current tools of monetary policy will be a lot less effective going forward
  • the risks are asymmetric to the downside
  • the impatience with economic stagnation, especially among middle and lower income earners, is leading to dangerous populism and nationalism.

US Futures Pressured By European Weakness; Oil Flat, Dollar Rises

For the fourth day in a row, US traders arrive at their desks with US equity futures largely rangebound if with a modestly heavy bias, pressured by some recent weakness in European stocks, where DB continues to post modest gains following yesterday's report that Germany is pursuing "discrete talks" over the fate of the German lender. Oil has regained earlier losses following comments by Algeria's oil minister who said that OPEC could cut 1% more than agreed upon while sterling continues to slide on growing concerns of a "hard Brexit."

European, EM Stocks Slide On ECB Taper Concerns; US Futures Flat

With China on holiday, overnight sessions remain relatively quiet: at this moment, S&P500 futures are little changed as European stocks fall for first day in seven, on yesterday's concern that the ECB is moving toward tightening monetary policy; Asian indices rose slightly for third day. WTI climbs to $49.40, the highest since June 30 after yesterday's surprisingly large API crude draw report.

Gold Money's picture

Recent comments of FOMC members have sent real rates higher and gold lower, something we have witnessed several times this year. Since the beginning of the year, the FED has tried to appear hawkish while the actual policy outlook has in fact become ever more dovish. At this point, the FEDs own guidance for interest rates suggest there is very little downside for gold, but there are many more potential drivers to the upside

There Really Is Nothing Left To The Money Illusion

Japan’s economy continues to be the most obvious and clear evidence of the truth in that statement, but it no less applies everywhere the monetary illusion was once accepted without question. They really don’t know what they are doing, and in 2016 it so much harder to hide. 

"This Cannot End Well" Bill Gross Warns

"Central bankers have fostered a casino like atmosphere where savers/investors are presented with a Hobson's Choice, or perhaps a more damaging Sophie's Choice of participating (or not) in markets previously beyond prior imagination. Investors/savers are now scrappin' like mongrel dogs for tidbits of return at the zero bound. This cannot end well."

IMF Slashes US GDP Growth Outlook: Now Sees US Growing Only 1.6% In 2016

Having observed consensus economic growth expectations for the US tumble month after month, in its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF decided to once again play catch down from its over-optimistic +2.2% outlook in July to just 1.6% now  which still remains above consensus expectations of just 1.5% growth in 2016, pouring cold water on Obama's strategy to paint the economy as growing strongly.

Bill Blain On Today's "Big Contrarian Trade"

"Whatever happens.. every European bank is not going to vanish in a puff of green smoke. Decimation sounds horrendous, but remember it means one in ten. Europe might benefit from it. One or two banks, (actually 3 Italians and maybe a German or two), might be led to the slaughter room, but generally the rest of Europe’s banks will probably survive. Picking the bottom is the trick.  It’s the big contrarian trade."