Monetary Policy
10 Investor Warning Signs For 2016
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/15/2015 09:15 -0500Wall Street’s proclivity to create serial equity bubbles off the back of cheap credit has once again set up the middle class for disaster. The warning signs of this next correction have now clearly manifested, but are being skillfully obfuscated and trivialized by financial institutions. Nevertheless, here are ten salient warning signs that astute investors should heed as we roll into 2016.
Will The Market Force Yellen Into 'None-And-Done'?
Submitted by Secular Investor on 12/14/2015 18:23 -0500Jim Cramer - of all people - warned about this in 2007: watch the video inside!
The Market Has Just Gone Nuts
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/14/2015 15:19 -0500Presented with little comment, aside to ask: "where are the liquidity-providers?"
Key Events In The Coming "Fed's First Hike In 9 Years" Week
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/14/2015 09:22 -0500While this may well be the most important week for capital markets in the past 9 years, when the Fed is widely expected to hike rates on Wednesday, precisely 7 years to the day since it cut rates to zero, here are the other key events to watch out for.
Futures Resume Slide After Oil Tumbles Below $35, Natgas At 13 Year Low; EM, Junk Bond Turmoil Accelerates
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/14/2015 06:51 -0500- Across the Curve
- Australia
- Barclays
- Bear Stearns
- Bond
- China
- Copper
- Crude
- Crude Oil
- default
- Deutsche Bank
- Equity Markets
- fixed
- Foreclosures
- Global Economy
- High Yield
- Iran
- Japan
- Jim Reid
- Lehman
- Monetary Policy
- Nat Gas
- Natural Gas
- Nikkei
- OPEC
- Precious Metals
- RANSquawk
- RBS
- Recession
- recovery
- Renminbi
- Yuan
- Zurich
With just 72 hours to go until Yellen decides to soak up to $800 billion in liquidity, suddenly we have China and the Emerging Market fracturing, commodities plunging, and junk bonds everywhere desperate to avoid being the next to liquidate.
Hilsenrath Just Reset Market Expectations: "Fed Is Worried Rates Will End Up Right Back At Zero"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/13/2015 23:18 -0500"In short, the age of unconventional monetary policy begun by the 2007-09 financial crisis might not be ending."
- Jon Hilsenrath
About That Rate Hike...
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/13/2015 15:55 -0500This is where the Fed. now finds itself. Here they were. Just holding policy lines doing what they in their Ivory Tower contemplated and the so-called “smart crowd” insisted they do. And now the saying of “Between a rock and a hard place” might be an understatement. The world sits atop a tinderbox fueled by monetary policies that created them and awaits a match that could set it off in a blaze of who knows what. All in short order. Unless they don’t do anything except try their best Draghi impersonation and declare, “They too are once again at the ready to do what ever it takes!” Except – just not now.
Peter Schiff Exposes The Real Problem Facing The Fed
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/13/2015 10:30 -0500The real problem for the Fed will be how foolish it will look if it does raise by 25 basis points and is then forced by a slowing economy to lower rates back to zero soon after liftoff. At that point, the markets should finally understand that the Fed is powerless to get out of the stimulus trap it has created. But it looks like the Fed would rather look foolish later when it's forced to cut rates, than look foolish now by not raising them at all. The Fed’s rocket to nowhere will hover above the launch pad for a considerable period of time before ultimately falling back down to Earth.
Morons At The Precipice
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/12/2015 13:25 -0500Seven years of zero rates, massive monetary inflation and incessant market backstopping have desensitized and anesthetized. Rational thought ultimately succumbed to "perpetual money machine" quackery. And now all of this greatly increases vulnerability to destabilizing market dislocations, as senses are restored and nerves awakened. "A lot of this looks like late 2007 or early 2008," warns one manager, but today, market mispricing is systemic and global – virtually all securities classes at home and abroad.
How Peak Debt Constrains The Fed From Moving Rates Higher
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/11/2015 10:31 -0500As soon as the Fed moves money market rates upwards, unproductive parts of the economy will come under severe strain which in turn sets in motion recessionary forces prompting the Fed to reverse course. The only way out is to realize that the world is awash in mal-invested capital that need to be written off. Since that is inconceivable for today’s vested interests, the way forward will be further “Japanification” of the global economy. And this time we are all out of arrows.
Rand Crashes, EM Stocks Plunge As Trader Warns, Absolutely Ignore The "It's-Priced-In" Meme
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/11/2015 08:02 -0500"The Fed will drive home the lower and slower mantra. That is all spin, signifying nothing... There are so many unknowns, good and bad. Either way, absolutely ignore the "it’s priced in" claims... The Fed is going to raise rates next week, and anyone who claims it is not a huge deal is fooling you, as well as themselves."
US Equity Futures Suddenly Fall Off A Cliff As Europe Slides, Oil Tumbles, EM Currencies Turmoil
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/11/2015 06:41 -0500- Australia
- B+
- BOE
- Bond
- Central Banks
- China
- Consumer Sentiment
- Copper
- CPI
- Crude
- Crude Oil
- default
- Equity Markets
- Fail
- fixed
- France
- Germany
- Glencore
- Global Warming
- Henderson
- Hong Kong
- Initial Jobless Claims
- International Energy Agency
- Iran
- Japan
- Jim Reid
- Michigan
- Monetary Policy
- Nikkei
- OPEC
- Ordos
- RANSquawk
- recovery
- Reserve Currency
- University Of Michigan
- Yuan
It was a relatively calm overnight session in which European stocks wobbled modestly, Japan was up, China was down following its weakest fixing since 2011 as the PBOC continues to aggressively devalue since the SDR inclusion (stoking concerns capital outflows are once again surging), EM stocks stocks were weak and the dollar was unchanged ahead of today's retail sales data and next week's Fed meeting, and then suddenly everything snapped.
Credit Suisse Warns On China: "Some Companies Are Having To Borrow To Pay Staff Salaries"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/10/2015 22:20 -0500"Corporate balance sheet deterioration may well be a theme in 2016, raising market concerns, in our view. A mirror image of that is the rise in bank non- performing loans. Our contacts among the banks seem increasingly concerned about the NPL issue in 2016."
The Fed's Painted Itself Into The Most Dangerous Corner In History - Why There Will Soon Be A Riot In The Casino
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/10/2015 18:30 -0500The chart below crystalizes why the Fed is stranded in a monetary no man’s land. By the time of next week’s meeting the federal funds rate will have been pinned at about 10 bps, or effectively zero, for 84 straight months. After one pretension, delusion, head fake and forecasting error after another, the denizens of the Eccles Building have painted themselves into the most dangerous monetary corner in history. They have left themselves no alternative except to provoke a riot in the casino - the very outcome that has filled them with fear and dread all these years.




