Monetary Policy

2016 Year In Review

We started this year with the economy deteriorating and finished it with the second interest rate increase in ten years. There were a lot of ups and downs along the way, but ultimately 2016 was defined by three key story-lines:  1) Brexit 2) The Presidential Election 3) Fed Policy. The first two events were votes that shocked the world. The stock market’s reaction to each was arguably even more shocking. 

Bank Of Japan Leaves Policy Unchanged, Upgrades Economic Outlook

With a vote of 7 to 2, The Bank of Japan decide to change nothing about its monetary policy. While expected, some had suggested Kuroda might shift the 10Y target away from 0bps, but no - no change to asset purchases, no change to 10Y target level, and no change to policy rate. However, in what some say is a tilt towards future tightening, The BoJ upgraded its view of the Japanese economy.

Make America "Greater Fools" Again?

With markets trading at extremes, bullish exuberance at peaks and monetary policy tightening – this might be a good time to locate one of those “greater fools” to sell to. Of course, this is just the opposite of what the media is telling you to do currently.

Financialism, Not Capitalism

In short, we’ve wasted just about ten years calling a depression a recovery, and all because money is so unstable that it has become, for the mainstream as well as mainstream authorities, unrecognizable. If you don’t know what money is, you aren’t going to know when money is a problem.

How Is Martin Sheen Any Different Than Vladimir Putin?

So if Russia messes with the political process to advance Donald Trump (as the official narrative goes), it’s evil. Yet when Martin Sheen blatantly tries to manipulate the election against Donald Trump with a pathetic piece of propaganda, the New York Times is noticeably silent.

Morgan Stanley Reflects On The Lessons From 2016

"The biggest surprises in 2016 were clearly political – notably Brexit and the US presidential election. As a result, we will be keeping a close eye on political developments in 2017, notably in Europe, where not just Germany, France and Italy are heading to the polls in 2017, but also the Netherlands and possibly also Greece."

Will A Stronger Dollar Cause A Trade War With Europe?

Everyone and their dog in the marketplace realizes that an EMU (European Monetary Union) debt crisis before the German elections next Autumn could sink Chancellor Merkel. There is a deeper problem here. It is becoming clear that even beyond Europe’s election season, “monetary normalization” may well not be feasible.

Key Events In The Coming Pre-Holiday Week

The key economic releases this week are durable goods and GDP on Thursday. Chair Yellen’s speech on the labor market on Monday afternoon is also likely to garner considerable attention.

Damaging The Deep State: Trump, Russia, And China

It has become clear Trump's attitude towards Russia and China is very different from that of his predecessors. Amazingly, he is already wresting power from the deep state, causing it great resentment, which under Obama, Clinton and the Bushes, ran geopolitical policy. From January, barring accidents the world will not be the same, the establishment up-ended.

Markets Award Trump Nobel Prize In Economics

It took only nine days in office for President Obama to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. Likewise, the markets seem to have prematurely greeted Trumponomics as an outstanding success. There’s just one thing: Trump hasn’t done anything yet. We’re still weeks away from his inauguration, and details of his economic plans remain scarce.