Money On The Sidelines

Goldman's Top Strategist Reveals The Two Biggest Risks To The Market Today

"We’ve also seen a growing allocation of retail and institutional money into “premium chasing” quant strategies, including, for example, ETFs that sell equity vol. I think many of these developments are positive, but the associated market structure remains largely untested. So I would not rule out the risk of a glitch that triggers, say, a 5-10% correction."

"Yesterday Was A Once-In-A-Decade Sort Of Day For The S&P 500"

"I certainly see parallels to 2007 – particularly in the way risk and hedging are discussed... the similarities of financial engineering between then and now – primarily a shift towards correlation and volatility trading – away from ‘directional’ trading and the advent of ‘low vol products’ designed to be leveraged..."

The Blow-Off Top Is Here: Second Largest Weekly Inflows To Wall Street In History

For confirmation that the market is now in its "blow off top" phase, look no further than the latest BofA "flow show" in which Michael Hartnett reports that capital markets just saw their biggest week of equity inflows since the US election ($24.6bn), another chunky inflow to bonds ($9.0bn), which combines to "the second largest week of inflows to Wall Street ever (largest was $35.5bn in Dec'2014)."

Breaking The Correlation Curse

The “Curse of Correlation” may have finally met its match. The President-Elect’s proposed policies break so completely with the last 8 post-Crisis years that investors are re-evaluating everything from the trajectory of long term interest rates to which sectors stand to benefit the most under a Trump presidency.

 

Stocks Near All Time High Despite 16 Straight Week Of US Mutual Fund Outflows, Historic "Redemption Day"

The new normal sure is strange: with the S&P flirting with all time highs, not to mention staging another dramatic V-shaped comeback from the post-Brexit crash which saw S&P futures trade limit down a week ago, investors keep on selling. According to Lipper data, U.S.-based stock mutual funds, which are held by retail mom-and-pop investors, posted cash withdrawals of $2.8 billion over the weekly period ended Wednesday; this was the 16th consecutive week of outflows.