Money Supply

The Widow-Maker's Back - Is It Time To Short JGBs?

"The Japanese Government Bond market was the first truly asinine Central Bank fueled bubble. Macro traders fell over themselves shorting it, hyperbolically venting about the un-sustainability of the Japanese government policy... It was a dark seductive mistress and as some pundits joke, you aren’t a real macro trader until you have lost money shorting JGBs..."

Dollar Rebounds, Futures Rise Ahead Of Surge In Payrolls

One day after the dollar slumped sharply on initial disappointment with the GOP tax plan, the greenback has rebounded ahead of a nonfarm payrolls report that is expected to show the US economy gained over 300,000 jobs in the post-hurricane rebound, and as investors reassessed the latest news on U.S. tax-cut plans. Stocks in Europe and Asia advanced, US equity futures were as usual in the green,

Can Gradual Interest-Rate Tightening Prevent A Bust?

"Regardless of policy transparency once a tighter monetary stance is introduced, it sets in motion an economic bust. The severity of the bust is conditioned by the length and magnitude of the previous loose monetary stance and the state of the pool of real savings."

The Downright Sinister Rearrangement Of Riches

"The discrepancy between low cost consumable goods and living, transportation, medical, and education costs illustrate the true effects of the government’s incessant pilfering of the wage earner, student debtor, and fixed income retiree."

Traders Paralyzed, Markets Flat Ahead Of Today's Main Event: The ECB's Taper Announcement

US equity futures and Asian shares are flat this morning with European shares treading water ahead of the ECB's policy meeting in which it’s expected to announce a tapering to its €60bn in monthly QE. On this busiest day of Q3 earnings season, companies set to report earnings include Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Intel, while we also get data on jobless claims and wholesale inventories.

What Makes A Good Economic Model?

"Contrary to the popular way of thinking the criteria for selecting a model is not how well it worked in the past - i.e. passed the criteria of back testing and a life test - but whether it is theoretically sound."

The 4 Possible Channels For A Chinese Financial Crisis

An analysis by Victor Shih of Merics lays out 4 plausible scenarios of financial crisis in China: household defaults, shadow banking panic, capital flight, and a sudden stop of international lending. It finds that China’s greatest vulnerability resides in its dwindling foreign exchange reserve and escalating external debt, which can trigger a confluence of maxi-devaluation, external defaults, and sharp asset price depreciation.

Key Events In The Coming Week: ECB Taper, Q3 GDP And Durables

The main even this week will be the ECB's taper announcement on Thursday where consensus expects the ECB to announce a QE extension of €30bn per month for 9 month until Sep-18, with potential extension after. Net purchases between now and Dec-17 will continue at €60bn per month as planned. To cope with rate hike expectations, the ECB is also expected to strengthen forward guidance.