Moral Hazard

The Details Behind Trump's Deal With Carrier Revealed

In the end, UTC agreed to retain approximately 800 manufacturing jobs at the Indiana plant that had been slated to move to Mexico, as well as another 300 engineering and headquarters jobs. In return, the company will get roughly $700,000 a year for a period of years in state tax incentives.

Trump And Draghi May Bring A Return Of The "European Solvency Crisis": Barclays

Since Drahi's infamous "whatever it takes" warning in the summer of 2012, European bond yields have been a one way street lower, and until the recent Trumpflation rally, had tumbled to all time lows, in many cases well below 0%.  There are two catalysts, however, that may be ending Europe's QE-driven free ride, and according to a recent report by Barclays, their names are Donald Trump and Mario Draghi.

Do You Believe In QE Miracles?

"This is a very artificial market," warns Allianz' Mohammed El-Erian, and while markets are expecting an ever increasing pace of central bank buying of assets, their policies are no longer working...

Bill Blain: What The BOJ Just Did Is "Recipe For Disaster"

"I rather suspect the horrible truth will soon be out. The last 7 years of extreme monetary experimentation has created a mutant economy... where the only beneficiaries have been holders of financial assets. Investors have been loath to invest in real plant, infrastructure or jobs because the returns look so limited by artificially low rates."

"It's Never Different This Time" PIMCO Warns "The Tides Of Risk Will Flow Eventually"

The old Wall Street expression is “They don’t ring a bell at the top.” This snarky adage is usually employed by those saddened financial managers who ride a successful investment to a peak and then watch in horror as it reverses course to a level below their cost basis. A pity this notion is misguided, since the market frequently “rings the bell.” It is just that most market participants are not listening. Perhaps they should be listening now.

Why You Should Enroll In The Chartered Central Bank Watcher (CCBW) Program

Has the financial world stopped making sense to you?  Frustrated by markets that go up day after day? Does buying up negative-interest-rate bonds seem like an idiotic task?  Well not when you have central banks involved, so stop your whining about “fairness” and “fundamentals” and get on board the liquidity train by enrolling in the Chartered Central Bank Watcher (CCBW) program.

The US Real Estate Big Picture... A Thesis In Moral Hazard

Given central banks are all in and have no credible ideas (or credibility period), a NIRP driven speculative new housing bubble (for a population that is barely growing...hello China?) seems most likely.  If you haven't already, get busy front running the next moral hazard moonshot and then stay tuned.  Because as you read this, central bankers are already devising their next (even more destructive) "plan".

The Real Endgame For Italian Banks

The new head of UniCredit, Italy’s biggest bank, has implored the EU to take a more lenient stance on rescuing the country’s troubled banking sector, as The FT reports Mustier urges Brussels should look to a controversial 2004 French government rescue of Alstom as a model. The 13% surge in Italian bank stocks this week - the most since 2011 - offers a further hint that, as Bloomberg's Mark Cudmore explains, there’s only one viable outcome to the fiasco with Italian banks, and it will ultimately be a positive catalyst for global risk assets even if negative for the euro.

China's Petro-State "Lender Of Last Resort" Conundrum

China is increasingly becoming the petro-state lender of last resort. The primary reason for that is producer states are rapidly running out of time to prevent full scale political implosion on the back of chronic economic pressures. For all the hype around current ‘price recovery’, it means absolutely nothing for most producer states. It’s becoming painfully obvious that the prevailing geopolitical price of survival is structurally out of sync with geological costs of production.