Morningstar

Looking For Inflation In All The Wrong Places

"The drunk in the above story is an idiot, of course. But no more so than modern economists who can’t find inflation because they’re looking only at the part of the economy covered by their government’s Consumer Price Index..."

Weekend Reading: Will Tax Reform Deliver As Expected?

While Congressional members were campaigning yesterday that the “tax plan” would give an $1182 tax cut to most Americans, it should not be forgotten that since they failed to “repeal and replace” the Affordable Care Act, any tax cut will only be diverted to offset a substantial rise in health care premiums in 2018.

WTI/RBOB Algos Undecided After Gasoline Build, Production Dip

RBOB gasoline is at a 25-month high (and WTI has a $45 handle) as all attention is focused on the duration and impact of the storm (i.e. how long refineries will be closed?). Inventory and Production data this week will be of limited help to traders as it occurred before Harvey struck but API confirmed the crude draw, gasoline build trend overnight, and DOE data shows the same pattern - crude draw, gasoline (and distillates) build and both WTI and RBOB dipped on the print.

Frontrunning: July 31

  • HSBC, miners lift European shares as dollar holds near lows (Reuters)
  • Republicans Face Tough Choice: Repeal Obamacare or Cut Taxes (BBG)
  • Trump’s Decisions Deepen Divide Among Republicans (WSJ)
  • Koch Brothers Move to Back White House’s Tax-Cut Plan (BBG)
  • Maduro Waits for U.S. Response After Violent Venezuela Vote (BBG)

Electric Vehicles No Threat To Oil Prices Anytime Soon

Hardly a day goes by without another media report about the impending demise of the Internal Combustion Engine as petroleum powered cars and trucks are replaced by uber-clean Electric Vehicles. It is just a matter of time before EVs start to materially reduce global oil demand thereby capping a meaningful oil price recovery now and creating an ever-shrinking industry in the future... Except it isn’t true.