Mortgage Backed Securities

Could Germany Ever Allow Deutsche Bank To Go Under?

So Germany ignores all the FSB rules and regulations and bails Deutsche bringing it into government ownership/protection –  call it what you like. In so doing it demolishes the entirety of European policy regarding bail-ins, government debts and austerity. The Bundesbank, Berlin and the ECB would have no authority at all. Every country would have a green light to do the same for their flag carriers. It would be the end the European experiment.

Mike Maloney: "This Is The Peak"

"This is the peak – we have passed the peak of the bubble. It's now deflating. There is usually a little tiny roll over and then a huge crash. And the little tiny roll over is just starting right now. We are seeing it first in the top end (like luxury real estate), where the currency that was created by the central banks went to that 0.1% first. Within the next few years you are going to see probably the greatest crash in history. I have often said that the crisis of 2008 was just a speed bump on the way to the main event. We are in the process right now of seeing this unwind."

When Narratives Go Bad

There’s a … tiredness … to the status quo Narratives, a Marie Antoinette-ish world weariness that sighs and pouts about those darn peasants all the way to the guillotine.

Why The Fed Is Trapped: A 1% Increase In Rates Would Result In Up To $2.4 Trillion Of Losses

As the Fed has rushed headlong into boosting interest rates, it forgot one small thing: combining a duration estimate of 5.6 years with a total notional exposure of $17trn, and current Dollar price of bonds of $105.6, indicates that, to first order, a 100bp shock to interest rates would translate into a $1trn market value loss. That is using the more conservative estimate of the bond market. Using the broader bond market sizing of $40trn, the market value loss estimate would be $2.4 trillion. And just like that the Fed is trapped.

Peter Boockvar Warns "If Central Bankers Get Their Way, The Global Bond Market Will Blow Up"

"My fear is that central banks are now taking this too far through negative interest rates in particular and that they’re going to literally destroy their own banking systems. If they’re actually successful in generating higher inflation, then they’re going to destroy their own bond markets... our government officials, and I will include the Federal Reserve in that, have failed the American people."

What Manipulation Does To The Free Market

Had the federal government held a constant measuring stick rather than "tinkering, engineering, distorting" key government calculations such as the size of the economy (GDP), the rate of inflation, level of unemployment, or size of federal deficits and federal debt...the reality we face would be plain and honest choices needed.  Instead, the responsibility of those working for "the people" has been breached via falsifying and distorting each of these (over decades).  This consistently improves the output and does not allow a true means to quantify and qualify the nations health.  Simply put, the government has continually tinkered, tampered, and distorted the accounting so as to mislead or create a falsely positive appearance. 

2016: The End Of The Global Debt Super Cycle

The credit markets are signaling that the debt fueled expansion that began in 2010 is turning to bust. This is the most precarious moment in financial market history because as the world slides into recession global central banks have no ability to soften the oncoming recession with debt creation. The world economy is on the precipice of another Great Depression.

Buyer's Remorse? Axel Merk Warns "The Fed Doesn't Have A Clue!"

"The Fed doesn't have a clue!" - We allege that not only because the Fed appears to admit as much, but also because our own analysis leads to no other conclusion. With Fed communication in what we believe is disarray, we expect the market to continue to cascade lower - think what happened in 2000. To understand what's unfolding we need to understand how the Fed is looking at the markets, and how the markets are looking at the Fed.

The Big Short: "Every American Should See This Movie & Be F##king Pissed Off"

"This is a dangerous movie for Wall Street, the government, and the establishment in general. ... cuts through the crap and reveals those in power to be corrupt, greedy weasels who aren’t really as smart as they want you to think they are. The finale of the movie is sobering and infuriating."