Moving Averages

Gold Surges Most Since Brexit After 'Dovish' Fed Hike

With the focus overnight on the Rutte 'win' despite the surge in populist angst, and headlines from The Fed, PBOC, BoJ, and BoE sending global stocks to record highs, one might be forgiven for not noticing that Gold is surging (most since Brexit) following Janet's decision to raise rates for the 3rd time in 11 years - far outperforming other assets classes.

Crude Is Crashing

WTI Crude is suffering its biggest down day since September 2015 - crashing over 5% to a $50 handle and the lowest levels since 2016...

A Look Back At 1999!

"If this market rally seems eerily familiar, it’s because it is. In fact, the backdrop of the rally reminds me much of what was happening in 1999...If you were around then, you will remember."

Charts Of The Week: 10 Reasons To Be Cautious In This Market

"First, 'record levels' of anything are records for a reason. It is where the point where previous limits were reached. Therefore, when a ‘record level’ is reached, it is not the beginning, but rather an indication of the maturity of a cycle. While the media has focused on employment, record stock market levels, etc. as a sign of an ongoing economic recovery, history suggests caution."

The Coming Bear Market

The bears are dead. Long live the bears. And that, in a nutshell, describes every bubble and emerging bear market there ever was...

Trader Warns "US Markets Are Playing Global Pied Piper"

Markets have started this week feeling much relieved, notes Bloomberg's Richard Breslow, as the understandable fears that U.S.-Asia strategy might continue their lurch toward direct economic confrontation were given a respite. However, as Breslow notes, asset classes galore are at important levels and vigilance will pay a hefty premium.

The "Super Bowl Party Conversation" Indicator

"The party this weekend was an example of the third stage. Wives were walking around with freshly injected lips and botoxed faces. Men were brandishing new Rolex watches while bragging about their latest acquisitions. I now know more about their personal stock portfolios than I do about their children’s latest successes."

"When Will It End?" BofAML's 10-Point Checklist

So "when will it end?" BofAML's best guess remains sometime in the summer. Here's their checklist of Positioning, Profit & Policy data to indicate we are in the Last 100 days of the rally, perhaps also the Last 100 Days of the secular upswing that began in March 2009...

Caution: Protection Required

Negativity has been replaced by positivity, any sense of caution has been thrown to the wind, bullishness is pervasive and bears look like idiots. In short: All the conditions one wants to see if one is interested in a market fade or at least in getting some protection.

Weak Links In The "Trump Rally"

This is the first time, within the last three years, the markets have pushed a 3-standard deviation move from the 50-day moving average. Such a move is not sustainable and a correction to resolve this extreme deviation will occur before a further advance can be mounted.