Musical Chairs

5 Urgent Warnings From Big Banks That The "Economy Has Gone Suicidal"

The economy has gone suicidal. It is working against the very people who need its energy to survive. It is collapsing on its own weight, and the weight of literally incalculable levels of toxic debt. And it is going to create the greatest disaster of our time, if the warnings from the world’s most powerful bankers are any indication.

Americans' 2016 Choices: Lesser-Able Or Lesser-Evil

In less than five weeks we’ll find out whether Lesser-Evil is reelected or Lesser-Able is to assume the reins. In either case we’ll have to resign ourselves to having made a choice for a commander-in-chief of a declining empire, instead of a capable First Citizen ready to tackle our nation’s economic and social ills.

Dennis Gartman: "We Are Entering The “Zimbabwe-isation” Of The Global Capital Markets"

"We are, it seems to us, entering the period we shall call the “Zimbabwe-isation” of the global capital markets and we say that with all sincerity… and requisite trepidation.  This will end badly of course. These things always do, but until they end… until the music finally stops… the game has to be played and the music, as it plays, has to be enjoyed."

Musical Chairs

Economics is a bit like musical chairs. In a recession, the economy takes a hit and there are some casualties. Some players fail to get a chair in time and are out of the game. The game then goes on without them. The economy eventually recovers. But a depression is a different game entirely...

Frontrunning: August 3

  • European bank rebound not enough to save world stocks from further losses (Reuters)
  • Republican rift widens as Trump declines to endorse Ryan, McCain (Reuters)
  • New Rough Patch for Trump Campaign Roils Republicans as Defections Grow (WSJ)
  • Obama says Trump unfit to be president (FT)
  • World’s Largest Oil Hedge Set to Make Billions for Mexican State (BBG)

Is Being Unemployed Just "Bad Luck"? (Spoiler Alert: Don't Be Stupid!)

Washington Post writer Matt O’Brien proposes Getting Stuck Without a Job is Mostly a Matter of Bad Luck. That notion is ridiculous. While there may be instances of 'bad luck', in general, the employees with the weakest skills were the first to be let go and the last to be rehired.

Is The Market Priced For A Summer Rate-Hike?

Last November, capital markets were discounting a rate hike five months later, based on Fed Funds futures. Same story today. Last November, the S&P 500 was trading near 2100. Same story today. Last November, VIX levels were around 14. Same story today. Last November, instead of waiting five months, the Fed hiked rates one month later; the S&P dropped by 10% over the next eight weeks... And as BofAML's Savita Subramanian warns, hiking during a profits recession usually hasn't ended well.

Another Unicorn Bites The Dust

More bad news for the unicorns after Theranos, uBeam and Lending Club scandals with the latest T. Rowe Price quarterly slashing the value of equity in Upwork, a player in the online staffing platform space. The initial investment of $15.8 million in 2012–4 is now worth a mere $7.3 million, and is now in free fall as third CEO in two years more than doubles the fees charged by the troubled staffing platform.