NAHB

US Workers' Wage Expectations Unexpectedly Collapse

According to a brand new Fed survey, US workers and job-seekers are so disenchanted with the labor situation, and harbor so little hope for higher paychecks, that even as they increasingly search for new jobs, they not only expect fewer job offers but now expect the lowest "new" paycheck in over two years.

Global Stocks Rise Amid Unexpected ECB "Trial Balloon"; Dollar Flat Ahead Of Fed Minutes

European markets continued their risk-on trend in early trading, rising to the highest in over a week and rallying from the open led by mining stocks as industrial metals spike higher after zinc forwards hit highest level since 2007. The EUR sold off sharply, boosting local bond and risk prices after the previously discussed Reuters "trial balloon" report that Draghi's speech at Jackson Hole would not announce the start of the ECB's taper.

VIX Tumbles, Global Stocks And Dollar Rally As Korea Tensions Ease

Global stocks and US futures are up for a second day, with the VIX sliding 0.58 vols to 11.75 (-4.7%) and haven assets dropping, after a KCNA report report suggested North Korea had pulled back its threat to attack Guam after days of increasingly bellicose "fire and fury" rhetoric with President Trump, and hours after China took its toughest steps to support U.N. sanctions against Pyongyang.

Key Events In The Coming Week: Fed Minutes, Retail Sales And, Of Course, Politics

In what should be a relatively quiet, mid-summer week if only on the global economic schedule even as geopolitical tensions continue to set the general risk tone on any given day, the focus over the next few days will be on US retail sales on Tuesday and Industria Production on Thursday, as well as on monetary meeting minutes from the Fed and the ECB.

VIX Tumbles, S&P Futures, Global Stocks Rebound Sharply As Korea Fears Fade

Global stocks and S&P futures rebounded sharply on Monday as tensions over an imminent conflict with Pyongyang receded after U.S. officials played down the likelihood of a nuclear conflict with North Korea, recovering from fears of a U.S.-North Korea nuclear standoff drove them to the biggest weekly losses of 2017, while the dollar too rose off four-month lows it had hit against the yen.

Housing Starts, Permits Rebound In June Despite Tumble In HomeBuilder Confidence

After a pitiful drop in May, building permits rebounded galantly in June (+7.4% MoM - the most since Nov 2015) and following three straight monthly declines, housing starts rose 8.3% MoM in June - the biggest jump since Dec 2016. All of which is odd, since the NAHB just printed at 8-month lows with homebuilders citing "lumber costs" as causing them to cut supply?

Global Stocks Hit Record High, Set For Longest Winning Streak Since 2015

With the USD just off 10-month lows, there continues to be an easing of loosening of financial conditions for emerging markets which also supports equities. After decent gains in Asia on the back of positive signs from China this week, MSCI's world stocks index looked set for a ninth day of gains which would mark its longest winning streak since October 2015.

Dollar Tumbles, Euro Soars After Obamacare Repeal Dies; China Intervenes To Halt Rout

The Bloomberg Dollar Index tumbled to a fresh 10-month low after two more Republican defections on Monday night doomed the proposed GOP healthcare plan in the Senate. And while Treasuries rose on concerns about inflationary pressures and the viability of the Trump stimulus agenda, S&P futures rebounded gingerly from session lows, and were up 0.1%

Key Events In The Coming Week: The Summer Doldrums Arrive

With little on the US economic docket in the coming days, this week's focus is on the ECB and BoJ meeting along with minutes from the RBA and the Riksbank. In the US The key economic release this week is housing starts on Thursday. There are no scheduled Fed speaking engagements this week.

Sleepy Overnight Session Interrupted By Chinese Market Turmoil

While it was indeed a generally quiet session (with Japan markets closed), US equity futures continued their run into record territory (ES up 0.1% to 2,458.50), and Europe fractionally lower, the early Monday focus was on the previously discussed turmoil for Chinese markets where despite a solid set of Chinese data small caps tumbled, selling off into the close after further warnings of regulatory scrutiny and deleveraging,

Quiet Start To Quad Witching: Stocks Rebound Around The Globe, BOJ Hits Yen

Today is quad-witching opex Friday, and according to JPM, some $1.3 trillion in S&P future will expire. Traditionally quad days are associated with a rise in volatility and a surge in volumes although in light of recent vol trends and overnight markets, today may be the most boring quad-witching in recent history: global stocks have again rebounded from yesterday's tech-driven losses as European shares rose 0.6%, wiping out the week's losses.

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: Fed, BOJ, BOE, SNB, US Inflation And Retail Sales

After a tumultous week in the world of politics, with non-stop Trump drama in the US, and votes in the UK, France and Italy, this is shaping up as another busy week ahead with multiple CB meetings, a full data calendar and even another important Eurogroup meeting for Greece. Wednesday's FOMC will be the main event, with the Fed expected to hike 25bp, while the BOJ, BOE and SNB all remain on hold.