* Silver surges 6.5% in dollars and 19% and 12% in euros and pounds *Oil and most commodities declined on economic concerns in the quarter (see table) *U.S. stocks eked out minor gains to new record highs and look toppy *Gold performance impressive given strength of dollar and equities, oil collapse and negative sentiment
Biotech has outperformed the broad market by a count of 3.5:1 over the past four years, is up four fold over a decade that included the worst financial crisis since the Depression, is riding a 5-year reign as the top performing sector, and the number of public companies in the sector with $2B market caps has tripled in four years. But we'll let the charts do the talking.
All of these are signs of a top forming.
With Trannies now down almost 6% year-to-date, the S&P just fell back below the red-line for 2015, joining The Dow. Small Caps and Nasdaq remain up 2% for now. Bonds, gold, and silver are back in the green for 2015.
In a somewhat surprising turn of events, this morning's futures reaction to last night's shocking start of a completely unexpected Yemen proxy war, which has seen an alliance of Gulf State launch an air, and soon land, war against Yemen's Houthi rebels, is what one would expect: down, and down big. This is surprising, because on previous occasions one would expect the NY Fed, or its pet hedge fund, Citadel, or the BOJ or ECB (via the CME's "Central Bank Incentive Program") to aggressively buy ES to prevent a slide, something has changed, and for the BTFDers, that something may be very fatal with the e-Mini rapidly approaching a 1-handle yet again. The offset to tumbling stocks, as previously observed, is oil, with WTI soaring over 6% in a delayed algo response to the Qatar headlines.
Across the board stocks are getting slammed as NASDAQ just joined Trannies in the red post-FOMC... we're gonna need another FOMC meeting...
According to AXA’s Nick Hayes, the EGB bubble may end in a 2000 Nasdaq-style collapse. "The comfort with which investors are embracing negative yields is similar to behavior of those who had been underweight technology stocks in 1999 before rushing in."
Thousands Of Layoffs Coming After Buffett Merges Heinz With Kraft, Creating 5th Largest Food Company In The WorldSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/25/2015 06:37 -0400
Another day, another mega-M&A deal taking advantage of abnormally low bond rates, this time however not involving biotechs or a specialty pharma seeking to purchase a debt-free balance sheet, but one involving the Oracle of Omaha himself, and his Heinz investment, which will merge with Kraft Foods whose market cap was over $40 billion this morning on the news of the merger, and create the third largest food and beverage company in the US, and 5th largest in the world. And while the resulting company will certainly be a food giant, here is the rationale behind the deal and the punchline for American workers: "significant synergy opportunities." Translation: thousands of layoffs imminent.
Janet Yellen noted that everything was awesome and that stocks were now slightly "on the high side" of their historical range. It appears no one showed her the Russell 2000 which has a valuation multiple of just about 90x LTM earnings (as reported by the 2000 companies which comprise the index, and which were certified as accurate by 4,000 CEOs and CFOs on penalty of jail time). The mystery of how the Fed remains so stubbornly bubble blind - just like it did during the dotcom and housing bubbles - is thus revealed. The self-evident reason is that the purported geniuses who comprise our monetary politburo drink the Wall Street Cool-Aid about forward ex-items EPS. The Fed is driving a two-ton bubble machine, but has no clue that it has become a financial death trap.
Our views on some of the popular oil-market related topics including Saudi, 'Fracklog', E&P Funding Crisis, Dividend Cut by XOM? and final thought on Merit of the Integrated Model
Gilead is, by far, the largest income producer in the Nasdaq Biotech Index and today's warning from the Biotech behemoth which has dragged the stock down 2.8% this morning, is weighing heavily on the exponentially-expanding index. As Bloomberg reports, GILD said nine patients taking its hepatitis C drugs Harvoni or Sovaldi along with the heart treatment amiodarone developed abnormally slow heartbeats and one died of cardiac arrest. Now, of course, it's "just" 9 patients... so analysts will spin the diversification. The Nasdaq Biotech Index now trades with a P/E of 50x, with over 80% of the entire sector's earnings concentrated in just 5 companies... and the biggest of all just warned on the drugs that make up half its revenues!
Adding across the entire Nasdaq Bitoech Index, the market cap is about $1.06 trillion. As for net income: $21.1 billion. In other words, the NBI now trades with a P/E of 50x, with over 80% of the entire sectort's earnings concentrated in just 5 companies.