Spot the odd one out: Short-end Treasuries flat, JPY carry risk-off, IBM/KO/MCD dumped, HY Credit weak... Stocks best day in a year!
Summing it all up: Volumeless buying panic on ECB buying rumors!
In the past few years the stock market has always recovered from corrections to make new highs, and we cannot be sure if the party is indeed over. However, both from a fundamental and technical perspective, the probability that it is over seems quite high. Should market internals and trend uniformity to the upside improve again, this assessment would obviously have to be revised. However, there are surely more than enough warning signs extant now and every financial asset bubble must end at some point.
Few are the market makers that make money no matter what the market does (especially since HFT firms, long since exposed for merely frontrunning big order blocks instead of providing liquidity, are now disappearing at an accelerating pace), and there are those who, rigged casino analogies notwithstanding, still want to place their money in the market betting on either more upside or downside. For their benefit a few days ago we posted "The "Crazy Ivan" Playbook: How To Time A Near-Term Market Bottom" however, we realize that most people are visual learners, so for them, here is the Investor Business Daily's compendium of the most notable market tops and bottoms in recent market history.
From Bitcoin to the Swiss gold referendum, and from Chinese trade and North Korean leadership, Jim Rogers covers a lot of ground in this excellent interview with Boom-Bust's Erin Ade. Rogers reflects on the end of the US bull market. citing a number of factors from breadth to the end of QE, adding that he agrees with Albert Edwards' perspective that now is the time to "sell everything and run for your lives," as the "consequences of [The Fed] are now being felt." Most notably though, Rogers believes the de-dollarization is here to stay as Western sanctions force many nations to find alternatives. Simply put, Rogers concludes, "we are all going to pay a terrible price for all this money-printing and debt."
Another day, another HFT firm busted for manipulating the market. Today's participant: Athena Capital, which did what every other algorithmic, HFT firm does - rig the market of course, but at least it had a sense of humor about it: Athena called the market-rigging algorithm that "manipulated the closing prices of tens of thousands of stocks during the final seconds of almost every trading day during the Relevant Period" by the very amusing name "Gravy." But remember: HFTs are really your friend - they just provide liquidity and stuff.
The last time the stock market reached a fevered peak and began to wobble unexpectedly was August 2007. Markets were most definitely not in the classic “price discovery” business. Instead, the stock market had discovered the “goldilocks economy." But what is profoundly different this time is that the Fed is out of dry powder. Its can’t slash the discount rate as Bernanke did in August 2007 or continuously reduce it federal funds target on a trip from 6% all the way down to zero. Nor can it resort to massive balance sheet expansion. That card has been played and a replay would only spook the market even more. So this time is different. The gamblers are scampering around the casino fixing to buy the dip as soon as white smoke wafts from the Eccles Building. But none is coming. For the first time in 25- years, the Wall Street gamblers are home alone.
From 17,350 intraday highs "proving the recovery is here," we are 1500 points down just 3 weeks later. The Nasdaq just fell 10.5% from its highs, officially in correction. VIX broke above 30. Perhaps, just perhaps, the gap to fundamentals is finally about to be filled...
The Nasdaq is opening down 0.5% year-to-date (having been gloriously above 10% in mid-September) and S&P 500 has now turned red for the year. Only Trannies remain green in 2014 (for now)...
Blood in the leveraged momo streets. Nikkei was crushed overenight as USDJPY could not hold 107. European stock indices are tumbling led by weakness in Spain, Portugal, and Italy. The peripheral bond markets are also getting crushed (spreads wider by 15-20bps). This has bled over into US equities with Nasdaq leading the way lower. Treasury yields are collapsing (10Y tests below 2.15%). The USD is modestly lower but oil is continuing to collapse testing the $80 handle for WTI.
A few minutes ago, all hell broke loose in Intel stock when a Reuters fat finger did a JPM deja vu (as a reminder, JPM earnings were released just after 4 am, some three hours before their scheduled release due to a Nasdaq news release error) and released what the robots thought was INTC's Q3 earnings. Moments later, it was uncovered that while it was a fat finger, the finger hit the wrong button and had erroneously leaked Q2 earnings once again. Nonetheless, what happened in the interim was your typical algo idiocy, which as Nanex' Eric Hunsader summarized best, as follows: "This is crazy - note the wide swings in $INTC - some lasting less than 1 second. #HFT madness"
JPM Results Plagued By Recurring "Non-Recurring" Legal Charges, Stagnant Trading Revenues, Record Low NIMSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/14/2014 08:23 -0400
Another quarter down and JPM's earnings are more of the same. We don't recall if JPM's legal charges in the past few years are now $20, $30, $40 billion or more, but as of this morning they are X + $1 billion. In the company's ongoing mockery of the term "one-time, non-recurring", JPM added $1.062 billion in recurring, multiple-time pretax legal expenses, a $0.26 EPS impact to Pro Forma EPS, EPS which also declined courtesy of JPM's repurchase of $1.5 billion in shares in the quarter thus reducing the number of "S". So what were the bottom line numbers: EPS $1.36, a miss to estimate of $1.39;Revenue (non-GAAP revenue that is): $25.16 billion, better than the $24.43 billion; that said GAAP net revenue was $24.246 billion; Non-interest expense rose tom $15.8 billion, well above the $14.52 billion expected, and more than the $15.43 billion Q/Q
- No Happy Ending for Investors in Central Bank Fairy Tale (BBG)
- Ebola Response Strains Hospitals (WSJ)
- Obama, foreign military chiefs, to thrash out Islamic State plans (Reuters)
- Draghi’s ‘Whatever It Takes’ Plan on Trial at EU Court (BBG)
- Too-Big-to-Fail Banks Face Up to $870 Billion Capital Gap (BBG)
- Iran’s Message to World: You Need Us to Fight Islamists (BBG)
- Facing new oil glut, Saudis avoid 1980s mistakes to halt price slide (Reuters)
- Ukraine Grannies Outprice Banks on Hryvnia Black Market (BBG)
- HK police use sledgehammers, chainsaws to clear protest barriers, open road (Reuters)
- Gazprom Quarterly Net Rises 13%, Misses Estimate on Ukraine Debt (BBG)
At 1532ET today (Columbus Day - with half the market absent), someone - apparently having waited to see if the almost 'ubiquitous' 330pm Ramp would occur - decided it was time to dump three-quarters of a billion dollars notional of US equity market exposure in 1 second. The results of this forced liquidation (or utter disregard for fiduciary duty) were as follows...