NASDAQ

When reporting on yesterday's bizarre market action, which in addition to criss-crossing the DJIA 13,000K a total of almost 70 times in the past 4 days, saw some very curious fireworks throughout the day, we noted a very curious sell off in stocks in the last second of trading, which we jokingly (or so we thought) claimed was another flash crash. As it turns out, the move may indeed have been a mini flash crash, with all the salient features exhibited by the market on that fateful day in May 2010 when the DJIA plunged by 1000 points in seconds. Nanex, which unlike the SEC, is eager to explain and unearth strange and unexpected market moves, has performed a forensic analysis on this data, and has uncovered the same quote dissemination delay that occured during the Flash Crash, only this time not in the NYSE, but on the Nasdaq. Which, in turn should answer readers' questions whether any exchange is safe (if anyone were to care to find out the answer), aside from Sizma X of course.

We kissed Nasdaq 3000 this morning.  Doom and Gloom abounds.  The macro picture is still dire with lots of bad news - some of which you can only get on ZeroHedge!  Consider the crazy news that Wyoming was looking to buy an aircraft carrier.  Is this not Peak Doom?  It is a sign.

It is appropriate that as a post-mortem to tonight's GOP primary, which according to initial reports has Romney as winning both Michigan and Arizona, we have ConvergEx' Nick Colas providing an extensive summary of the factors in favor and against both the presidential incumbent, and the challenger, and in doing so handicap the possibility of election victory for either Obama or the Republican candidate, whoever he may end up being. As Colas says, 'it ain't over till it's over' - "As the battle for the 2012 Presidential election begins to pick up speed, we read a flood of reports that President Obama is a lock for reelection. And just as many that he is destined to be a one-termer. Those who believe that the winner of the 2012 election will be Republican claim that the keys to Obama’s downfall will be unemployment, skyrocketing oil prices, and increased federal spending. However, according to historical data and some political science theory, it looks like Obama has a pretty good chance of staying in the White House.... The GOP isn’t out of the race yet, but it’s up against some strong historical opposition." And while we would agree that all else equal Obama likely is a shoo-in, never before will there have been a full blown debt ceiling crisis in a repeat of August 2011 in the weeks and months leading into the election - that factor alone, in our humble opinion, could end up being the swing variable that pulls the otherwise ironclad victory away from Obama's clutch, and explains why the GOP caved so quickly on the payroll tax extension which will add $100 billion in debt, and force a debt ceiling breach ahead of November, as was first predicted on Zero Hedge. That, of course, and runaway oil: should crude continue its relentless surge, which it will if QE3 occurs, or an invasion or Iran becomes reality, Obama can kiss another 4 years goodbye.

Time and left at 3pm after trying to ramp it up then. Weird day. The morning drop seemed overdone based on "fears" of a German vote against the ECB/Bank bailout using Greece as a conduit for the money. The vote was strongly in favor which made markets happy, though someday maybe someone will present an argument other than "give them money or plunge the world into chaos". The lack of news out of the IMF wasn't good, but it keeps the ability to create rumors of new money alive and well, which is probably far more useful on a day to day basis in this market.

But coincidentally, the ECB’s next Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) is set for February 29...

The latest report from Morgan Stanley's Graham Secker can be summarized simply as follows: i) in January everything has disconnected as traditional linkages between asset classes have broken down, ii) also in January every major asset class (equities, treasurys, gold, oil) was up materially, iii) such a phenomenon has been seen only 5 times in the past 5 years, iv) a double digit decline followed 3 of the past 4 such surges. Then again, as Bob Janjuah lamented earlier, when a bunch of bespectacled economists who have never held a real job in their academic careers since transplanted with banker blessings to various central bank buildings, and who continue to plan the fate of the world in secrecy (a fate that can be summarized as follows: CTRL+P), as the only marginal decision makers, who really cares anymore?

As AAPL dominates the headlines for its dramatic 5% reversal intraday and biggest drop in over two months, perhaps it is worth pointing out that the lacking volumes have returned with a flourish. ES (the e-mini S&P futures contract) saw its heaviest volume since this mid-December rally began (30% above average) as our recent pontification on the messages from the credit market (along with the rhythmic periodicity of the rally's size and length) may be starting to wear on investors' risk appetites. After European credit markets accelerated to the downside today, US investment grade and high-yield credit was not buying any of the overnight rally in stock futures and moved wide of yesterday's pre-Samaras rally out of the gate. Stocks surged upwards, tracking uber-stock AAPL but as chatter of a NASDAQ rebalance sent game-theorists scrambling to migrate, AAPL's slump dragged everything down (sadly) with ES stalling at the pre-China rumor level before falling to pre-Samaras levels from yesterday's lows. A lack of rumors and no QE mention from FOMC minutes along with lackluster news from the Eurogroup did nothing to rescue the situation as EURUSD ended on its lows (-1% on the week now) and USD Strength saw carry trades dragging stocks down. Interestingly, post-FOMC Treasuries came off their best levels in the afternoon (even as stocks were tanking) but we saw Gold rallying (in the face of a stronger USD) - does make one wonder on where the safety trade is now. WTI closed near its highs of the day (over $102) and as we noted earlier Brent in EUR closed at record highs as Copper is -1.3% on the week and Silver is tracking USD -0.75% or so on the week.

UPDATE 2: AAPL bouncing from the lows even as Mac Rumors now reports that iPad 2 has been pulled from Amazon China. Recall this story on the recently contentious relationship between Apple and China. 

UPDATE: AAPL now $502.08 lows for day -$24 from highs

Chatter of a QQQQ rebalance (Apple is up ~50% from the last rebalance compared to 10% for NASDAQ) seems to be stumbling the iEconomy as AAPL goes red. Now, which of the 209 funds will be first out of the door? and which last? Volume is picking up for sure and options (especially short-dated) are getting very excited. Of course, broad indices are losing their bid implicitly as ES drops below the pre-China rumor and post-Samaras pop levels. Perhaps it is the recognition that we sold off 7% in a week after the last QQQQ rebalance (April 2011) and the pre-move was nothing compared to this...

With AAPL's stock price up another 1.5-2% today, we thought it instructive for all those index traders, hedgers, arbitrageurs, and market prognostictors to comprehend the scale. 90% of the move in the NASDAQ today is directly due to AAPL. Perhaps the drop in iAd sales rates or the drop in market share will dent expectations? Perhaps growth expectations from Europe will temper the excess? Or perhaps the 209 hedgies who rely on this stock for their year will play prisoner's dilemma (and free ride) one too many times and dismiss their recency bias to remember that the first one to migrate wins when prices go vertical.

While Obama may or may not be on the way to winning his reelection, courtesy of a GOP field that is, to say the least, limited, and where the only worthy candidate is more ostracized by the right than even anyone on the left, the bottom line is that whoever wins the presidency, it will matter precisely didley squat. As the US debt clock shows, fast forwarding 4 years, or to February 2016, when the next presidential race will be in its final stretch, America will have $24.1 trillion in debt, about $9 trillion more than it does, now on $17.4 trillion in GDP, for a gross debt to GDP ratio of 138.9% (and Apple's $1 trillion market cap will account for 150% of the Nasdaq... just as IBM is 125% of the DJIA). Needless to say, it will be long past game over at that point confirming that the current presidential race, with its exciting tangential detours into female fertility, moon bases, LBO IRR maximization courtesy of cost-cutting, is completely and utterly meaningless. Also, keep in mind, "at current rates" for an endspiel that has now entered the exponential phase in virtually every category, is to say the least, optimistic. Yes, interest rates may be negative in 2016, but that means that the liquidity trap endgame has not only begun, but is well on its way to ending, and mercifully putting an end to this whole Keynesian "sustainability" charade. Remember: Japan's debt-deflation lasted for 30 years only thanks to new pockets of incremental global leverage and inflation: China and the PIIGS. This time, absent the levering of the entire continent of Africa, there is noone who can take the releverage baton and run. Which means the only "buyers" will be the central banks. At least back in the day, Weimar just one nation. This time, it will be the "Weimar World."

First, small momo-favorite companies. Next: entire nations. Finally: the all-seeing, all-dancing central banks. Today, Diamond Foods just fired its CEO and CFO after the audit committee found its books have been cooked, only phrased more politically correct: "the Audit Committee has carefully reviewed the accounting treatment of certain payments to walnut growers. The Audit Committee has concluded that a "continuity" payment made to growers in August 2010 of approximately $20 million and a "momentum" payment made to growers in September 2011 of approximately $60 million were not accounted for in the correct periods, and the Audit Committee identified material weaknesses in the Company's internal control over financial reporting." Cue the class action lawsuits. When everything is said and done, the US investor will find that the Madoff M.O. of "doing business" has simply shifted to corporate America, where courtesy of non-GAAP BS one can report whatever the investing public wants to believe, until it all blows up. In other news, the now fired executives were stunned to discover they are not getting an extra bonus for cooking the books, last heard mumbling "double standard" under their breath. And if anyone wonders why despite the confirmed "bull market" in stocks (driven entirely by the nearly $1 trillion liquidity injection from the ECB in the past 6 months), investors just pulled $1.8 billion out of US mutual funds yet again, this is your answer.

If the people in this country had any balls (or actual leaders and not just the Corporate puppets we're allowed to vote for), we'd have a mortgage strike.

Our bullish premise rests on Greece being fixed.

Zero Hedge has not been focusing much on the topic of our broken equity markets recently because if by now, following over three years of coverage, someone is not aware just how fragmented, manipulated and largely broken the market truly is, they never will. Yet every now and then it worth reminding readers who may have stumbled on this blog recently, just how bad things are in graphic format. Our friends at Nanex, who are by far the best forensic analysts of everything that is busted with the US stock market, have completed a masterpiece analysis showing the churning (packet traffic) in the various fragmented US market venues, from the NYSE to the Nasdaq to BATS and so forth, on a daily basis beginning in January 2007 and continuing through today. While the "rise of the HFT machine" over the past 5 years, following the adoption of Reg NMS, will hardly be a surprise to most, what is stunning is the first animated confirmation of the market terminally breaking on August 5, 2011, the day the US was downgraded, an observation that first was made right here on Zero Hedge. Which begs the question: what really happened in the stock market on August 5, 2011 when the US was downgraded to AA+, when everything literally broke, who is intervening constantly in the stock market, and why are they doing so via various HFT intermediary mechanisms?

The last week has offered an amusing display of the difference between the cheerleading corporate mainstream media, lying Wall Street shills and the critical thinking analysts. What passes for journalism at CNBC and the rest of the mainstream print and TV media is beyond laughable. Their America is all about feelings. Are we confident? Are we bullish? Are we optimistic about the future? America has turned into a giant confidence game. The governing elite spend their time spinning stories about recovery and manipulating public opinion so people will feel good and spend money. Facts are inconvenient to their storyline. The truth is for suckers. They know what is best for us and will tell us what to do and when to do it....  The drones at this government propaganda agency relentlessly massage the data until they achieve a happy ending. They use a birth/death model to create jobs out of thin air, later adjusting those phantom jobs away in a press release on a Friday night. They create new categories of Americans to pretend they aren’t really unemployed. They use more models to make adjustments for seasonality. Then they make massive one-time adjustments for the Census. Essentially, you can conclude that anything the BLS reports on a monthly basis is a wild ass guess, massaged to present the most optimistic view of the world. The government preferred unemployment rate of 8.3% is a terrible joke and the MSM dutifully spouts this drivel to a zombie-like public. If the governing elite were to report the truth, the public would realize we are in the midst of a 2nd Great Depression.