NASDAQ

After yesterday's rollercoaster session in both the S&P and in oil, where initially stocks soared alongside oil, only to promptly tumble as stops were taken out and as the refiners' inventory strategy was exposed after the DOE's latest weekly numbers were released, it has been a quieter session so far, though maybe not for China where stocks jumped at the open only to fizzle and close at the lows in what appears to be ever less intervention by the market manipulating "National Team."

• Gloomy mood prevails despite calmer commodities (Reuters)
• A Strong Dollar Hurts China More Than the U.S. (BBG)
• China Sets Yuan at Four-Year Low in ‘Stress Test’ (WSJ)
• Dow Chemical and DuPont Are in Advanced Talks to Merge (WSJ)
• Yahoo scraps plan to spin off Alibaba stake (Reuters)

Who could have seen that coming?

The last week has seen Small Caps first drop into negative territory for the year (joining Dow Transports). Yesterday The Dow joined the un-party. And today, following growth concerns from China trade data, The S&P 500 has tumbled to open in the red for the year...

As one hedge fund favorite long crashes (Chipotle is down 9% in the pre-market), so another hedge fund favorite short is about to spike (once it reopens for trading). JAB Group has decided that now is the time to offer a 78% premium to current prices to buy Keurig Green Mountain for $92 (note that is still down over 40% from its highs a year ago). The stock is currently halted at $51.51 leaving the 12% short interest biting their nails at the prospect of major losses and a good 'volkswagen-ing'.

With Draghi's Friday comments, which as we noted previously were meant solely to push markets higher, taking place after both Europe and Asia closed for the week, today has been a session of catch up for both Asian and Europe, with Japan and China up 1% and 0.3% respectively, and Europe surging 1.4%, pushing government bond yields lower as the dollar resumes its climb on expectations that Draghi will jawbone the European currency lower once more, which in turn forced Goldman to announce two hours ago that it is "scaling back our expectation for Euro downside."

Until pro-growth, low taxation and less regulation policy changes are enacted, we don’t foresee any changes to central bank policy nor the unsustainable market divergences and asset price distortions. Expect more media propaganda on how great the economy is while the reality is another story. Early signs are that retail sales this holiday season are poor. Nobody can predict when reality will set in and equity markets revert back to pre QE levels in 2008/09. The longer this charade continues, the lower equity markets will eventually go, and in the short-term so will commodities. Then the super cycle in commodities will begin anew. Much this will hinge on next fall’s election cycle.

The market is now officially so broken, that the biggest HFT-player no longer even makes any sense.

The S&P 500 (cash) index just broke back below the crucial 200-day moving-average (at 2,064) for the first time since the Paris terror attack rally began. This has dragged the index back to unchanged year-to-date with only Nasdaq holding gains in 2015.

So what happens to a market that’s balanced precariously atop the shares of a handful of “must own” companies when those companies lose their halos? Historically, the previously-strong sectors join the rest in a broad sell-off.