The panic buying by China’s newly-minted, day trader hordes took a breather on Tuesday which we think presents as good an opportunity as any to assess what factors might intervene to derail the self-feeding margin madness that has Shanghai and Hong Kong partying like it’s 1999 on the Nasdaq.
Who could have seen that coming? With Treasury yields pressing lows of the day since the US open, and AAPL in the red; the stop-hunt in stocks this morning is now starting to fade back into reality as Crude oil prices gave up gains and went red and reports appear that Greece is preparing to default... The Dow and S&P are now red on the day.
A gap open in AAPL has sparked a vertical stop-hunt in US equity indices driving Nasdaq back above 5,000 for the first time in3 weeks. Algo buying-panics are being seen across all US equity indices as the US equity open is clearly a fundamentally bullish thing...
As Nanex's Eric Hunsader pointed out, while the well-paid HFT-lobbyists proclaim their rigging clients "knit together liquidity from all markets," it appears BATS' new CEO (since the lying old one left) disagrees. The exchange that caters significantly to the front-running HFTs believes it knows how to improve the market for thinly traded stocks... it will stop handling them.
Beijing has reportedly threatened to shut down Sina Weibo which China’s internet czar claims is disseminating false information, providing a platform for terrorists, questioning the “facts,” not exercising enough censorship, and, much like the townsfolk of colonial era Salem, “propagating heresy”.
A look ahead into next week's macro forces.
"The world-beating surge in Chinese technology stocks is making the heady days of the dot-com bubble look tame by comparison...the industry is leading gains in China’s $6.9 trillion stock market, sending valuations to an average 220 times reported profits," Bloomberg reports, in yet another example of how stretched the margin-driven rally in Chinese stocks has become. We present the only chart you need to understand how this will end.
- Israel, U.S. Lawmakers Press Case Against Iran Nuclear Deal (WSJ)
- Rand Paul tries to broaden libertarian appeal (Reuters)
- Fewer Oil Trains Ply America’s Rails (WSJ)
- Chicago voters go to polls in first ever mayoral runoff (Reuters)
- FedEx to buy TNT to expand Europe deliveries (Reuters)
- Mohamed El-Erian Has Most of His Money in Cash (BBG)
- In Surprise Move, Australia Holds Rates (WSJ)
- Oil falls as Iran, China discuss more supply (Reuters)
Because with the suddenly collapsing labor market, in which only Americans 55 and over can find jobs, expensive and superfluous Apple Watches should be a game-changer.
The question on everyone's lips: which asset class was responsible for Virtu's trading perfection for yet another year. It wasn't stocks because adding across the firm's America, EMEA and APAX equity product lines, Virtu revenues actually declined, from $201 million in 2013 to $195 million in 2014. It also wasn't commodities, where revenue dropped by almost $2 million in 2014 to $93.1 million.The answer is...
The higher financial markets rise, the harder they fall. It would be one thing if stocks were soaring because the U.S. economy as a whole was doing extremely well. But we all know that isn’t true. The warning signs are there – if you are willing to look at them.