NASDAQ

Contrarian, yet common sense, perspectives on Apple that so few seem able to see.

In what could easily be the biggest news of the day, even more important than the most recent Chinese rate hike, the one stock that determines the broader stock market level more than any other, Apple, may well get crushed today as index arbs dump it following news that the Nasdaq 100 intends to announce a rebalancing which will see AAPL drop from a 20% to a 12% weighing. According to the WSJ, the move is akin to what various exchanges do when they hike margin rates to prevent commodity prices from surging: "The rebalancing was driven in part by the seemingly unstoppable rise in Apple shares, which are up more than fourfold in the past two years. The tech company's big weighting means that a change in fortune for the maker of iPhones, iPods and iPads has a huge impact on one of the most heavily traded indexes in the market. After the rebalancing, which takes effect May 2, Apple will make up 12% of the Nasdaq-100." Whether this will be the end of the company's relentless rise remains to be seen although any impairment in the sensitive ecosystem of technical factors that has so far prevented any fund from selling the company may well be impaired at this point, leading to the first bona fide sell off in the name in the past 3 years.

During the Great Recession plenty of money was made betting against the consumer. In 2010, the number of non-business bankruptcy filings grew by 8.8% to 1.5 million. While this number may seem high, it is significantly lower than the 31.5% jump in 2009. In the shadow of bankruptcy lead defaults lies Portfolio Recovery Associates, Inc. (NASDAQ: PRAA). With a market cap of $1.4 billion, PRAA is the leading receivables management company. Read more to see how you can cash in on their ability to collect.

After first it was disclosed that TEPCO does not know the different between millions and thousands, the firm which is now set to be at least partially nationalized, has decided to blame its computers for the ongoing catastrophic handling of the Fukushima disaster. From NHK: "Tokyo Electric Power Company says it will review all data on radiation
leaked from the damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, citing errors
in a computer program. The utility says it found errors in the program used to analyze
radioactive elements and their levels, after some experts noted that
radiation levels of leaked water inside the plant were too high." In other words, every "fact" you have heard so far in the past 3 weeks - you can forget it. And since the BLS is coming, and the Nasdaq is about to fund (105% debt financed) the Japan government's multitrillion restoration effort, it will all be well from now.

While it is admirable that the Nasdaq and ICE are doing their best to avoid going obsolete in a world in which exchanges no longer matter, the question of just how credible the market considers an offer which has a financing component accounting for 33% of the transaction funding ($3.8 billion), is very suspect. After all what prevents private equity firm XYZ to come up with a 100% debt funded overbiad thanks to a "highly confident" (also known as "highly conflicted") letter from Goldman that it can raise the debt. In this case we have debt underwriting "titans" Bank of America and Wells Fargo underwriting the $3.8 billion. In other words, this deal has the same probability of happening as the Fed has of sustaining the market without downticks for the next 3 months.

Gold commenced 2011 at $1,420.78/oz and with two days of trading left in the first quarter, gold is marginally higher at $1,420/oz. It is therefore flat for the quarter after another quarter of correction and consolidation. A lower quarterly close would be the first lower quarterly close in 9 quarters. This may be beneficial to some of those short the gold market who may be attempting to 'paint the tape' and engineer a lower quarterly close - in the forlorn hope that this could lead to momentum selling by trend, following hedge funds and traders. A lower quarterly close may be achieved but the fundamentals of anaemic supply and continuing strong demand both from the investment sector, but also from the jewellery and industrial sectors (dental and electronics primarily) internationally, and particularly in China and Asia in general will likely see gold continue to rise in 2011. Interestingly, March 2010 and the first quarter last year (see chart above), also saw gold flatline prior to strong gains in April and the second quarter of 2010 (Q2 10). Gold rose by nearly 6% last April and by nearly 12% in the quarter. The unresolved eurozone debt crisis and the emergence of the Japanese natural and nuclear disasters and geopolitical risk in oil producing nations means that the fundamentals today are as sound as they were in 2010 - if not more sound.

For now, the big fish are bailing out the little fish. Unfortunately, the US is the biggest fish of all and it's extremely unclear to see who exactly will be bailing us out when our rates start rising.

Another day, another imminent perpetual trading halt of a Chinese reverse merger or some other imported domestically listed scam. Today's target (which is not new to adverse research reports - recall that Upton Sinclar Research recently present a comparable fraud case recently), per Alfred Little research, is Chinese company China Integrated Energy (CBEH), which Alfred Little spares little kinds word for: "China Integrated Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: CBEH) is a complete hoax, according to a detailed investigation by the International Financial Research & Analysis Group (“IFRA”) commissioned by one of its hedge fund clients." Considering all the other words previously lashed out at CBEH, this may be one of the less scathing reports we have seen out there. That said, there is little to look forward to for stockholders per this report, as Alfred Little concludes "CBEH shareholders will almost certainly ecover nothing."

The much anticipated Global Tactical Asset Allocation quarterly update from Damien Cleusix is finally out. Arguably one of the most comprehensive equity market overviews, we present it in its entirety for our readers' enjoyment.

That chart from Tyler's article is reason enough by itself to get back to our BBB strategy (bullets, beans and bullion) and head for the fallout shelter - even without the fact that there is ACTUAL FALLOUT spreading across the globe from the STILL NOT FIXED nuclear reactor in Japan.

I warned, in detail, that Research in Motion was a strong short due to waning market share and margin compression in January. RIM warns of the EXACT SAME risks as it lowers guidance earlier today. For all of those optimists in the stock, this is just the beginning - for RIM and its competitors as well. Mobile computing will soon be a commodity business like desktop computers.

I've got a funny feeling that all the ramp-and-camp, extend-and-pretend POMO games propping up stocks are about to stop working. That would of course trigger a long, deep slide in equities, because as we all know, it's the Federal Reserve's games which have goosed the market to its current lofty heights. The market's confidence in the Bernanke Put--that is, the belief that the Fed will never let stocks decline-- remains supremely undimmed...I've got a funny feeling that it's lose-lose time for the Fed's games. here's the basic game plan: inject tens of billions of free money into the "risk trade," i.e. equities and commodities, ramp the futures markets when volume and liquidity are low, and crush the U.S. dollar. It's practically a perfect inverse correlation: when the dollar tanks, stocks move higher, and when stocks hit bottom then the dollar peaks. Think see-saw: when one tops out, the other hits bottom, and vice versa.

I don't think there's really anything an individual nation can do, not even China, when the Fed and the BOJ have their money spigots turned on full blast - everyone's going to get soaked and there's nothing they can do about it.

A week ago when we summarized the most recent round of inbound humiliation by one alleged bucket shop known as Global Hunter Securities, which basically has a buy recommendation on every single reverse merger ever to come to the US, even the acknowledged frauds such as in that particular case CCME, we said:"Oh well - at least we can be certain next week's non
seasonally adjusted initial claims number will be at a minimum one (The
Seasonally Adjusted can well be negative - it is from the BLS after
all)." We were referring of course to the imminent termination of the sellside analyst covering CCME Ping Luo. You can therefore pardon our lack of astonishment when we read, literally minutes ago, the following release from Global Hunter: "We are discontinuing coverage of the following companies: AMCN,CCME, CHLN, CRTP, CVVT, HRBN, and SDTH. We are discontinuing coverage of these companies due to the departure of our analyst and due to a shift in our resources to other areas in the China space." Well, since we predicted the former, it was more or less expected, but we wonder what "other areas" in the China space has Global Hunter morphed to: will they soon be covering an as yet untought of pyramid scheme with a Turbo Buy? Or do by other areas do they actually mean perform due diligence instead of stamping everything that promises a coverage fee with a Buy rating. Which brings us to the topic of this post. Since Gobal Hunter's advisory reputation is smoldering in the sewer, we believe it is time to voice our own unsolicited advice, and tell readers to short every single company on Global Hunter's buy list. If today's example of DEER is any indication, the profit will be at least 20% in the span of a few weeks.

After a two weeks ago we presented a report from Alfred Little research indicating just what a potential scam the latest alledged Chinese fraud DEER is, the stock manipulation derby that ensued to keep the price above $11 was beyond criminal. That said, we are happy to present the latest piece of evidence from Alfred Little chipping away at the facade of this latest Chinese company soon to be delisted by the Nasdaq. Look for the stock to follow every other Chinese scam on the road to oblivion. That said, be careful in buying puts: it is nearly a certainy that following a trading halt any and all puts will expire worthless even as the stock opens just shy of $0.00.