Since granting IEX exchange status would lead to an immediate market structure disruption, one which would impair such embedded HFT players as Citadel which, as we have explained previously is the NY Fed's preferred "arms length" intermediator in the market to ingite momentum at critical downward junctions, we are very skeptical that when all is said and done, the SEC will grant IEX what it wants: after all there are too many status quo revenue models at stake, not to mention a potential threat to the Fed's preferred market "intervention" pipeline.
While on any given day, stocks may tumble or surge as marginal buyers send increasingly illiquid indices lower or higher on ever lower volume, a more important question is what is taking place below the surface: are large holders looking to offload large exposure (by selling), or vice versa. For the answer we go to Bank of America, which has models to measure precisely this.
Following the Fed's disappointing "dovish, but not dovish enough" statement which effectively admitted Yellen had committed policy error by hiking just as the US economy "was slowing down" which in turn lowered the odds of a March rate hike to just 18%, it was up to oil to pick up the correlation torch, and so it did, rising in an otherwise mixed session which has seen European stocks slide on continued weakness surrounding Italian banks, many of which have been halted limit down, while Asia was treading water following news of the resignation of Japan’s "Abenomics" minister Akira Amari to over a graft scandal, and yet another day of Chinese stock dropping.
For those wondering what matters in this market, here is the answer: moments ago US stocks stormed into the green, following oil which after some confusion after today's massive DOE inventory build, has surged back over $32, one just one piece of news: moments ago both Reuters and Bloomberg cited the CEO of Russia's Transneft, who said that Russia and OPEC will discuss possible output cuts: BREAKING: Russia's Transneft says Russia and OPEC will discuss possible output cuts -TASS; RUSSIA TO DISCUSS OIL OUTPUT LEVELS W/ OPEC: TOKAREV
After the biggest two-day surge in oil in seven years, early in the overnight session both Brent and WTI continued their run for a third day, entering a bull market, 20% up from recent lows hit just last week (still 15% down on the year) when Saudi Arabia spoiled the momentum party after the world’s biggest crude exporter said it’s keeping up investments in energy projects while diesel consumption in China dropped for a fourth consecutive month, signaling an industrial slowdown. And thanks to the near record correlation between equities and oil, global stocks and US equity index futures initially rose only to slide following the Saudi comments.
What are the odds of another horrendous experience with a company who happens to be a subsidiary of Comcast?
David Einhorn's Confession: "We Lost Money Every Quarter; Never Had A Year Where So Little Went Right"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/19/2016 12:11 -0400
"2015 began with David’s favorite football team, the Green Bay Packers, blowing the conference championship game and a chance at the Super Bowl despite looking like the better team on the field, and holding the ball with a 12-point lead with less than 5 minutes to go. The Packers ended 2015 by getting blown out by the Arizona Cardinals 38-8 in a game where they looked like they didn’t even belong in the league. Our year felt a lot like that. Let’s get some of the gory facts out of the way: We lost money every quarter."
Central banks have lost their aura of omnipotence.
Who said this market was all driven by The Fed?
UBS has warned that the seven-year cycle in equities is rolling over, we could see a sharp 30% correction in stocks and that as per the headline of their ‘Technical Outlook 2016?, it is time to “buy gold” ... "So if gold moves into a bubble, we would need to see a gold price of minimum $3,300 ..."
Exchange says Nasdaq/Finra TRF -- a service dark pools and other off-exchange venues use to report stock trades -- is experiencing technical issue.